Zollkrieg ausgesetzt, neues globales Konsens wird gebildet | Auslandsmarkt-Spiegel

“It's like finally being fished out of the river. That's the feeling.” After the China-US Joint Statement on the Economic and Trade Talks in Geneva was released on May 12, Chen Li, who is engaged in large-scale clothing trade in Yiwu, finally breathed a sigh of relief and immediately contacted his American customers, saying, “Hurry up and ship the goods.”

According to the joint statement issued by China and the United States, the US side promised to cancel a total of 91% of the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods on April 8 and 9, and China will correspondingly cancel 91% of the counter - tariffs; regarding the 34% reciprocal tariffs imposed on Chinese goods on April 2, the US side will suspend the imposition of 24% of the tariffs for 90 days and retain the remaining 10% of the tariffs, and China will also correspondingly suspend the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs and retain the remaining 10% of the tariffs.

After more than 40 days of extreme tug - of - war, China, with a firm stance and timely counter - measures, safeguarded its legitimate rights and interests and international fairness and justice, and also successfully made the United States stop the crazy tariff hikes and return to the negotiation table.

Judging from the market reaction, “the scale of this tariff cut exceeded expectations.” Many international financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Mizuho Bank, and Deutsche Bank all gave positive evaluations of the joint statement on the same day. The three major US stock indexes also recorded their largest single - day percentage gains since April 9. As of the close, the Dow rose 2.81%, the Nasdaq rose 4.35%, and the S&P 500 index rose 3.26%.

In the short term, the initial agreement reached between China and the United States allows enterprises on both sides to take a temporary breather and provides support for injecting positive sentiment into the market; in the long term, everyone also realizes that this is far from the end of the tariff dispute. The continuous change of the international trade pattern is forcing enterprises to form a new global consensus.

How will the negotiation on more details in the subsequent agreement progress? Will Trump suddenly change his mind? What kind of tariff agreements will the United States reach with other countries... The tariff stick has been gently put down, but the world of yesterday is gone forever.

1 The April of Foreign Trade: Panic and Anxiety

Since the second half of last year, Chen Li has found that doing business in the United States has become more difficult. “Orders have been gradually decreasing. Trump was re - elected President of the United States. At that time, I thought there would be frictions, but who would have thought he would throw a 'nuclear bomb'. I really wasn't prepared.”

On April 2, when the US “reciprocal tariff” policy was introduced, the entire foreign trade circle in Yiwu was stunned by this “nuclear bomb”. Deng Yu, who works in the Yiwu International Trade City, recalled, “The next day, the city leaders came to visit and comfort everyone. Since the leaders came, everyone understood how serious the situation was.”

Early in the morning on April 9, the “reciprocal tariff” policy officially took effect. One day later, all of Chen Li's US orders were cancelled by the customers. “The customers couldn't understand Trump's decision either. They dared not suddenly adjust the prices and couldn't bear such high tariffs.”

Chen Li, who suddenly lost his business, fell into intense anxiety for the next month. “I just couldn't accept it psychologically. I had to keep bargaining with the customers every day.” Some American customers asked Chen Li to bear part of the losses, and some customers discussed sharing the tariff costs with him. “They were also afraid of losing the domestic market and wanted to ship some important goods first.”

According to the statistics of the 2024 data of the General Administration of Customs of China by Caixin magazine, the proportion of textile products exported to the United States reached 32.2%, ranking first among all industries, so it was greatly affected by the tariff hikes. And Chen Li, whose main business is large - scale offline trade with the United States, belongs to the most severely affected group in the textile industry.

In addition to textiles, wigs and beards made of human hair are another “hard - hit area”. More than 80% of the world's wig products come from China, and in 2024, the proportion of such products exported from China to the United States was as high as 62.02%.

Most of these products come from Xuchang, Henan, a famous wig industrial belt. “The impact on us is huge,” Wang Min, who works in a wig company in Xuchang, told us. Last month, the company stopped production for a week. After the tariff hikes, the traditional trade orders in the entire industrial belt basically came to a complete halt, accounting for 60% of the total market volume. “In order to stabilize the employees' emotions, most enterprises here have temporarily adjusted or slowed down their production plans, let employees work in shifts, or reduced working hours to maintain operations as much as possible.”

Although the consumer electronics industries such as smartphones, lithium - ion batteries, and tablets also have a high scale of exports to the United States, compared with traditional industries such as clothing or wigs, they have relatively higher technological content and greater bargaining power, so their ability to resist tariff shocks is also relatively stronger.

Among them, consumer - upgrade electronic products that are not a rigid demand and consumers can choose whether to buy or not are obviously more affected. For example, AI hardware that highly depends on the US market. According to Intelligent Emergence report, based on industry experience, for every 50% tariff increase, the net profit margin of AI hardware enterprises drops by 10%. If the terminal selling price does not increase, a tariff of over 100% will make all AI hardware enterprises' business in the United States unprofitable. Before the tariff agreement was reached, many investment institutions in the industry were ready to suspend their investment in relevant projects.

2 The US Attitude Eased More Than Expected, and Foreign Trade Enterprises “Caught Their Breath”

Huojian Guo, the former dean of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation and a senior foreign trade expert, previously estimated that without effective negotiation progress, the “reciprocal tariff” policy would last at least 3 - 5 months, and whether Trump would change his mind mainly depends on the performance of the US economy.

For the United States, in addition to reducing the import of Chinese consumer goods and possibly causing inflation, the export of products such as agricultural products, energy, and Boeing aircraft to China will also be affected by China's counter - tariffs.

Just when everyone was prepared to “live a hard life”, the United States changed its attitude after only one month:

• On April 11, the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) issued an updated guide on reciprocal tariff exemptions, announcing exemptions for tariffs on 20 items such as consumer electronics, servers, and semiconductor devices, mainly targeting the Apple supply chain and NVIDIA's AI servers.
• On April 15, the White House website of the United States said that China was facing a maximum tariff of 245%, but it was not officially implemented.
• On April 17, the government of California, the United States, sued the Trump administration's tariff policy, saying that it damaged the state's economy.
• On April 22, the US side said three times that tariff negotiations could be carried out between China and the United States, and an agreement could even be reached in a relatively short period of time.
• On April 23, Trump sent a signal of easing, saying that the 145% tariff on China was indeed high and that the tariff on China would be significantly reduced, but not to zero.

However, until early May, the market still saw no possibility of progress in China - US trade negotiations. On May 2, the US officially cancelled the T86 policy of “$800 small - value exemption” for China. On May 8, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said, “Want to talk? Sure, but if you say one thing and do another, or even try to sacrifice China's principles and positions to reach an agreement, that's absolutely impossible.”

Therefore, the release of the China - US Joint Statement on the Economic and Trade Talks in Geneva on May 12 was quite a pleasant surprise for many merchants in the same situation as Chen Li. “Finally, we can catch our breath.”

On the same day, Trump issued an amended executive order, reducing the ad - valorem tariff rate for small parcels worth less than $800 from 120% to 54% and maintaining the specific tariff of $100 per small postal item. At the same time, the original plan to increase the specific tariff for small postal items from $100 to $200 on June 1 was revoked. The fixed tariff of $100 per item took effect on May 2 (originally June 1) - which means that the customs clearance cost of small parcels will be significantly reduced.

Wang Min told us that many factories in the Xuchang wig industrial belt have resumed orders from the United States. From May to July, because of the hot weather, it is the off - season of the US wig market. The existing backlogged inventory can be digested by July at most, and subsequent orders will also resume one after another. However, the tariff conflict has still caused irreparable losses to the merchants. Wang Min estimated that 30% of the company's sales this year have been affected.

Facing the losses, Chen Li comforted himself, “This is already the best result.”

3 The Era of Globalization 2.0: Going Global under a New Consensus

Chen Li felt that the farcical tariff war in the past month “is like a couple getting divorced and then remarrying. There will always be some estrangement. Even without this tariff war, the golden age of doing foreign trade in the past is gone forever, and business will definitely not return to the way it was before.

In the early 1990s, with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the world entered the era of globalization. Looking back today, the 1.0 version of globalization was essentially a global trade and financial system centered around the United States. The high trade deficit of the United States with many countries in the world today is also an inevitable result of this 'old order'.

With Trump's first election as President of the United States in 2017, the world has been moving towards the trend of “anti - globalization”, or rather, gradually entering the era of Globalization 2.0 with more multilateral economic and trade relations.

“This is the worst of times and the best of times.” Amid Trump's vacillation, foreign trade practitioners have gradually emerged from their initial panic and anger and begun to form a new consensus on the current world pattern: that is, in the future, when enterprises go global, it will no longer be an expansion into a single market, nor simply the export of goods, but a market layout of 'born to be global' and a more regional reconstruction of the value chain.

However, it is not easy for enterprises that have been used to “comfortable lives” relying on the US market for a long time to change their business ideas.

Chen Li believes that for merchants like him with low risk - resistance ability, transferring the market is another more risky gamble. “It's safer not to move than to make random moves. At worst, I'll earn less. I can make adjustments slowly when there are opportunities in the future.”

Some stronger enterprises have already taken action and shifted their business focus to the European market. “Several big sellers who only did business in the US market have come here,” Li Luwei, who runs an independent website for outdoor furniture in France, noticed that after the US imposed tariffs, there have been more Chinese sellers in the originally “peaceful” European market. “They directly compete with us by offering lower prices and snatch the market share. I've also been thinking about how to deal with it recently.”

E - commerce platforms are also following this trend. Since last year, they have been tilting more traffic towards the semi - managed model with overseas warehouses or local - to - local merchants. Data from market intelligence company Sensor Tower shows that in April 2025, Shein's advertising expenditure in France and the UK increased by 35% month - on - month, and Temu's expenditure also increased by 40% and 20% respectively.

Su Jian, one of the earliest top sellers on Temu, revealed that the proportion of the North American market in Temu's overall business has dropped to 20% this year, and the importance of Shein's US business is also declining. “The best way is to follow the platform and sell wherever it can reach.”

Some once - neglected marginal markets are also being rediscovered by more merchants. In the past month, Zha Jiulan, the founder of the African B2B comprehensive e - commerce platform Egatee, has continuously received calls from merchants. “Many merchants who are not competitive enough in the mainstream markets and are hesitant about doing business in Africa have come to ask me how to open an account.”

Whether to continue to be a firm “US market advocate” or to turn the ship in time to find new opportunities, in the foreseeable future, enterprises will continue to move forward in the fog with complex emotions. But the direction of “going global” will not change. As Chen Li said, “For us foreign trade people, if we don't go global, what else can we do?”

Grassroots entrepreneurship is the characteristic of Chinese foreign trade people. In the past, although these bosses from all over the country had different backgrounds, they could always take root with a spirit of perseverance. After rounds of industrial upgrading and development leaps, entrepreneurs have continued to emerge. They have tackled problems in different fields and embarked on the road of technological innovation and brand entrepreneurship.

It is foreseeable that the development resilience of the Chinese economy and industry can support more and more enterprises to go through ups and downs, get through short - term pains, and move from a single market to the world stage.