CEO-Tipps · Auslandsausdehnungszeit | Sollten Unternehmen bei neuen Zöllen ihren Auslandsausstoß "umgehen"?

In 2025, global trade rules are undergoing a new round of changes. Why has the overseas warehouse business become so popular? Is it a must - have for companies going global? What risks will Chinese enterprises face when "taking a detour" through Mexico? Under these changing circumstances, how should various industries respond? How can they develop resiliently in the face of uncertainties?

With these questions in mind, the "CEO's Strategy" overseas expansion season has invited Gong Lefan, a partner at Zhonglun Law Firm, and Yang Fei, the co - founder of Ocean Stone, to have a chat with us about: Should enterprises "take a detour" when going global under the new tariffs?

This live - stream mainly focuses on the following questions:

1. What new changes have taken place in the recent global trade environment? Which aspects are worth paying attention to for those going global?
2. The United States has been continuously increasing tariffs on major global markets. In the domestic context, which industries are more affected by these fluctuations?
3. Overseas warehouses are known as the "bridgeheads" of Chinese exports. Why have they suddenly become so popular? What risks are there in aspects such as advance stockpiling and supply - chain optimization?
4. After the tariff increase, should all cross - border sellers stock up in advance? How to choose a suitable warehousing solution?
5. Some enterprises are trying to "take a detour" by setting up warehouses and transshipment points in Southeast Asia or Mexico. Is this feasible? From the perspectives of legal compliance and practical experience, how can risks be avoided by adjusting the supply - chain structure and rules of origin?
6. Some consumer electronics enterprises transfer costs through "local production + co - branding with overseas brands". Can this model be replicated in traditional manufacturing?
7. Are the Middle East and Africa good choices for the current overseas markets? From a legal compliance perspective, how should the company's structure be designed?
8. Finally, offer three strategic tips for enterprises going global.

The following is a conversation between the two guests and 36Kr, with some content edited:

36Kr: What new changes have taken place in the recent global trade environment? Which aspects are worth paying attention to for those going global?

Yang Fei: In the past few months, there have been major news every day. If you follow the media, you'll find that the White House website publishes articles every day claiming "big wins". At this stage, since Trump has just taken office, he has to do something to meet the expectations of voters. Meanwhile, his decision to ask Musk to streamline various government departments will also affect many China - US trade - related matters. On one hand, it will inevitably face resistance from various departments. On the other hand, after the staff reduction, many routine operations will encounter problems.

For example, Trump suddenly suspended the tariff - free policy for small Chinese packages worth less than $800. This had a significant impact on Chinese e - commerce, especially for small - item products, as a large amount of goods are sent to the United States via small packages. However, the USPS (United States Postal Service) found that if it were to collect tariffs, the daily review volume would be too large to execute. Eventually, this policy was cancelled within 24 hours. Before the cancellation, many sellers of small - package goods were extremely anxious, and express delivery service providers charged a considerable "handling fee". But after the policy was cancelled, the fees returned to normal, and most express delivery companies refunded the over - charged fees.

Trump has not only increased tariffs on China but also on Canada and Mexico. After Canada was imposed a 25% tariff, Ontario Province imposed an additional 25% surcharge on the electricity from three US states: New York, Michigan, and Minnesota. The cost of living in the United States is already quite high. In some supermarkets, you can't even buy an egg with one dollar. Coupled with a 25% increase in electricity prices, the local people find it hard to accept this situation. Additionally, Trump is not very friendly to Mexico. In the past few years, many Chinese factories chose to set up plants in Mexico, but now it seems that this move is rather delicate. Mexico is also unhappy about the higher tariffs and has indicated that it will impose counter - tariffs. So, all parties are in a game, which brings more uncertainties to the global trade market.

Gong Lefan: In the daily news, what everyone is most concerned about is, of course, tariffs. The issue of tariff increase itself is not new, but in terms of tariff uncertainties, many Chinese enterprises going global need to pay close attention and make urgent adjustments. Many of my US clients have been adjusting their supply chains to cope with future tariff increases. Because tariff increase is a double - edged sword. On one hand, it will affect Chinese enterprises as sellers. On the other hand, it will also affect US consumers, buyers, and US distribution channels. It has a far - reaching impact.

From a legal perspective, how should we respond? How can we find a certain degree of certainty in the face of uncertainties? This is the first factor. The second factor is that if we want to take action, how can we plan carefully before acting? Because the United States has imposed tariff increases before. In the past two or three years, we have noticed that many Chinese enterprises have made mistakes in the process of adjusting their supply chains, and the cost of these mistakes is huge. Third, what is the correct approach? I will also share some successful cases with you later.

36Kr: The United States has been continuously increasing tariffs on major global markets. In the domestic context, which industries are more affected by these fluctuations?

Yang Fei: At present, the enterprises we've contacted have not been significantly affected by the higher tariffs. Most of these overseas - oriented companies are technology - based or produce differentiated products, rather than large - volume, low - profit products. So, there is actually not much impact on these companies. For example, for a product priced at $40, the cost may only increase by $1 - 2. There are two reasons for this:

Firstly, the tariff increase on China, especially on electronic products, is gradual rather than a sudden and substantial increase. Secondly, the declared price is calculated based on the production cost, not the selling price. For example, a product sold for $40 in the United States may only have a production cost of $10. Generally, the pricing in the US market is mostly 3 - 4 times the cost, and for highly differentiated products, it may be 7 - 10 times. So, if a product costs 10 yuan in China and is sold for 70 yuan in the United States, only 10 yuan is declared for customs, and a 10% tax increase is only one yuan, which has little impact on a product sold for 70 yuan. The industries that are more affected are bulk commodities, which operate on thin margins. Once the tariffs are increased and they can't adjust the prices, the relevant enterprises will face greater pressure. Another affected category is new energy and automobiles. That's why you can hardly see Chinese cars in the United States, and most of them are imported from Mexico.

Finally, let me add a little knowledge about the calculation of overseas shipping costs. You may not be very familiar with this. It is the result of a comprehensive consideration of multiple parameters. Logistics companies need to consider factors such as the ship's loading capacity and how many products can be loaded in a single container. Finally, the shipping cost is calculated based on weight and volume. If the product is too large or too heavy, the cost will increase. So, logistics companies need to find an optimal billing balance point. Enterprises should consider these factors when designing products and packaging. Although not every product can achieve a perfect balance, they can optimize the packaging design as much as possible. For example, some listed e - commerce companies for large - scale furniture that have emerged in the past two years have saved a lot of profits by optimizing the way furniture is packed.

Gong Lefan: Firstly, from the perspective of our cross - border investment service clients, there are mainly two directions:

One is to go to Southeast Asia, and the other is to go to the United States. Although the number of Chinese enterprises setting up factories and companies in the United States has increased recently, data shows that the investment growth rate of Chinese enterprises in Southeast Asia is the fastest among overseas regions. It is worth noting that in the past two years, some enterprises that set up factories in Southeast Asia have been investigated by the United States, and companies that set up factories in Mexico are facing similar situations. Most of these are enterprises trying to export to the United States by taking a detour. Since the United States is still China's largest trading partner, a large number of Chinese enterprises export to the United States and Europe, with the United States ranking first.

Secondly, the reasons for the investigation of Southeast Asian enterprises mainly involve anti - dumping and rules of origin determination. For example, some enterprises set up factories in Thailand for assembly and claim that the products are "Made in Thailand". However, according to the US rules of origin determination, these products are still regarded as "Made in China" and are therefore considered suspected of fraud. This situation has prompted some enterprises to choose to invest directly in the United States, but this will face problems with US investment policies.

Generally speaking, selling products to the United States and Europe through overseas subsidiaries seems to be an inevitable choice for many enterprises.

36Kr: Overseas warehouses are known as the "bridgeheads" of Chinese exports. Why have they suddenly become so popular? What risks are there in aspects such as advance stockpiling and supply - chain optimization?

Yang Fei: Currently, quite a few giants in the United States are deploying overseas warehouses, and many startups also received financing last year. Some of the early large - scale overseas warehouse platforms, such as Zongteng Group, started their layout in the United States a long time ago. I remember that JD.com also tried around 2019 but didn't really succeed. Cainiao has made a heavy - handed layout in the United States in the past year, and Temu also drove a lot of infrastructure construction when it aggressively entered the US market last year. From a warehousing perspective, there are many Chinese players in the United States that can provide good supporting services.

Firstly, this solves a major problem. In the past, the most difficult part of doing business in the United States was communicating with traditional US overseas warehouses. For example, many of these warehouses are operated by people of Mexican descent or African - Americans, and sometimes Spanish is used for communication, which poses a language barrier for Chinese enterprises. In addition, because local traditional overseas warehouses still use paper - based documents and have no systems, the efficiency is very low. It may take one or two days to get a reply to an email, and it's also difficult to track the location of goods.

Since so many Chinese players have entered the market, a large number of sellers in the United States choose to use platform warehouses first. For platform - based sellers like Amazon and Temu, their warehouse capabilities in the United States are very strong. Currently, a more challenging task for enterprises is how to allocate the inventory ratio between the two places. This is a very technical part of supply - chain management. MIT has a well - known supply - chain management major that studies how to achieve the best supply - chain matching to ensure the balance between sales volume and inventory. Warehouse management in the United States has its own characteristics. Once there is overstocked inventory in overseas warehouses that can't be sold, the maintenance cost is not low, and the cost of clearing the inventory is even higher. If a company chooses to simply discard the inventory, it may be difficult for this company to do business in the local area in the future. Last year, some of our partners for after - sales inventory clearance purchased unsold products from some brands at prices ranging from 0.5 to 10% of the original price.

Currently, the warehousing environment in the United States, especially in some large warehouses dominated by Chinese, has well - introduced efficient Chinese warehouse management systems, which can meet the needs of Chinese e - commerce. However, the entire logistics process is not just about warehousing but also includes distribution and various coordination tasks. For example, problems such as goods tracking, emergency replenishment, and allocation between multiple warehouses. For example, due to different packaging and coding systems, goods from Amazon warehouses cannot be directly sent to TikTok warehouses, and the cost of directly shipping goods from TikTok warehouses to independent - station customers is also high. How to balance the goods matching among Amazon warehouses, TikTok warehouses, and self - operated warehouses is a basic skill that Chinese players need to master.

Gong Lefan: From a legal risk perspective, when reconstructing the supply chain due to the US tariff increase, five aspects need to be noted:

1. Tariffs and rules of origin: The US Customs has strict regulations on the origin and tariff classification of imported goods. Enterprises must ensure that the customs declaration information is accurate. Otherwise, they may face fines or goods seizure. In particular, if goods are transshipped through a third country but the actual origin is still China, this "border - line" approach is extremely risky.
2. Fraud Claims Act: This is an act signed during the Lincoln era. Initially, it was used to combat suppliers who made false statements to the federal government. Now, it has been revived to target importers. The penalty standards are divided into two levels: If it is an unintentional mistake, it belongs to the lowest penalty level. But if it is an intentional or fraudulent act, the penalty will be multiplied, and it may even involve criminal liability.
3. Tax risks: This mainly involves the design of transfer - pricing structures in international trade projects. At the same time, special attention needs to be paid to relevant laws and regulations such as export tax rebates.
4. Intellectual property protection: Many Chinese enterprises mistakenly think that having patents and trademarks in China is enough. In fact, intellectual property is territorial, and protection must be separately applied for in the United States. Once they infringe on local US intellectual property, they will not only face litigation and compensation but also have their products directly removed from the shelves by retailers.
5. Labor law risks: The US labor law system is very comprehensive and strict, including minimum wage standards, working - hour limits, occupational safety and health requirements, etc. Enterprises must strictly comply with these regulations. Otherwise, they may face high - value fines and litigation risks.

In addition, if setting up a factory locally, other compliance issues such as environmental protection laws also need to be considered.

36Kr: After the tariff increase, should all cross - border sellers stock up in advance? How to choose a suitable warehousing solution?

Yang Fei: Regarding warehousing selection, the corresponding platform's warehouse should be selected according to the order source. However, there are also complex situations. For example, the sales volume of TikTok fluctuates greatly. It may sell hundreds of thousands of products this month, nothing next month, and then recover the month after. In this case, there needs to be a transit space in North America. More goods can be stored in one's own warehouse and then transferred to the platform warehouse when needed. Generally speaking, for newly - established brands, there are usually three options: using the warehouse provided by the platform, using a third - party warehouse, or if the goods are small in volume and the order volume is not large, asking friends in the United States to store the goods in their garages for shipping. This is a common practice for startups. Here are a few points to note:

Firstly, in principle, using the warehouse of the platform where you sell is the best option. For example, if you sell on Amazon, use Amazon's warehouse; if you sell on TikTok, use TikTok's warehouse, because the packaging requirements of each warehouse are different. Moreover, the warehouses of different platforms are not compatible. For example, you can't sell the goods from an Amazon warehouse on TikTok, or vice versa. Self - operated warehouses are mainly used for shipping from independent stations. In terms of logistics quality, Amazon is the most ideal choice. Using Amazon's services has several advantages: One is that it is relatively cheap for your own goods, and the other is that the service is good and the timeliness is high. However, Amazon's prices have been rising every year, not only in terms of logistics but also in advertising fees, which is a complaint point for many sellers.

Secondly, when it comes to independent stations, this is another important point. Traditional Chinese overseas sales are mainly about direct product sales, and little attention is paid to brand - building. Brands need to not only be product owners but also establish their own independent brand websites, which are the most important promotional platforms and are becoming increasingly important in the current environment. Because the overall ecological environment of Amazon has deteriorated in the past two years. In the past, you could build a good - sized business with hundreds of thousands or one or two million dollars. But now, if your product doesn't have special selling points or you don't seize the initial traffic bonus provided by the platform, it's very difficult to succeed. Amazon's current core strategy is: Unless you can bring traffic to the platform, your products won't be recommended first.

Therefore, independent stations are becoming more and more important, but there are few people who can build them. Because one needs to have the ability to build a brand, be able to do advertising optimization such as SEO and SEM, and understand the role of an independent station: It is not only a display platform but also a place to track the overall decision - making process of users. It is the headquarters for promotion and user operation. The biggest advantage of an independent station is that it can collect complete customer information. On Amazon, you can't see who the customers are, not even their email addresses. You can only ship goods through the system. But on an independent station, you can collect all information and conduct real user operation, such as promoting repeat purchases through emails or coupons. These are the core skills for brand - building.

Regarding the cost issue, although the shipping cost has increased due to tariffs, the overall efficiency is improving. We can see that more and more Chinese enterprises are developing in the United States. For example, a