Those small cities with stable housing prices

During the 2026 National Day Golden Week, Guo An returned to his hometown Dacheng County, Hebei Province, planning to buy a retirement apartment for his parents.

Dacheng is about 150 kilometers away from Beijing. The county is small in size, and high-quality educational, medical and commercial resources are concentrated in the central urban area. Guo An visited several new real estate projects and found that the unit price of well-located properties has exceeded 10,000 yuan per square meter, and the listed unit price of some high-quality second-hand houses in the central urban area is also around 10,000 yuan. After comparison, he chose a second-hand apartment with an age of about 10 years.

Guo An originally thought that after this round of real estate market adjustment, housing prices in his hometown county would drop significantly. After visiting the properties, he found that although housing prices in Dacheng have declined, the changes in the central urban area are not obvious.

Li Xiang, who works in Jungar Banner, Ordos City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, is also planning to change his apartment. Recently, his work unit launched a batch of welfare housing with a unit price of about 7,000 yuan per square meter, and he signed up immediately. Li Xiang said that the price of ordinary commercial housing in the local area is generally around 9,000 yuan per square meter, and a welfare housing is 200,000 to 300,000 yuan lower than similar commercial housing.

Jungar Banner is rich in coal resources, far away from first-tier and second-tier cities, and the housing demand mainly comes from local residents. In the past few years, local housing prices have also declined, but the fluctuation is limited. According to Li Xiang, the highest housing price in Jungar Banner was only a little over 10,000 yuan per square meter.

There are many other counties with stable housing prices. According to aggregated data, as of September 2026, among more than 1,200 small counties and county-level cities included in the national statistics, the average second-hand housing price of more than 400 of them has dropped by less than 20% from the local historical peak, but more than 80 small cities have seen a drop of more than 50%.

In this sample, the decline range of housing prices in small cities in western and northeastern China is relatively small, especially in some economically underdeveloped areas in northwest and southwest China; the decline range is relatively large in small cities in eastern China, satellite cities of first-tier and second-tier cities, and some districts and counties under provincial capitals.

The person in charge of a regional real estate enterprise told the Economic Observer that these small cities with stable housing prices do not have no price fluctuations, but they show more stable performance in a longer cycle.

Housing Prices in Small Counties

The apartment where Guo An's parents live in Dacheng is an old, small and shabby residence. Every Spring Festival, there are too many family members to live in, and some family members have to stay in hotels. This apartment is far from the central urban area, which is inconvenient for going to hospitals and supermarkets. His parents are unwilling to move to Beijing, so he wants to change a better apartment for them.

After inquiring with his classmates and friends in his hometown, Guo An found that the housing price in Dacheng is higher than that in neighboring areas such as Bazhou and Yongqing, and even comparable to that in Gu'an.

The local real estate agent who recommended the apartment to Guo An said that the housing price in Dacheng rose rapidly starting from 2017, increasing by nearly 40% in one year, exceeding 10,000 yuan per square meter in the second half of 2018, and reaching its peak in the second half of 2019. At that time, the housing price in the central urban area was generally 11,000 to 12,000 yuan per square meter, and the unit price of some new and second-hand houses exceeded 13,000 yuan per square meter.

After that, the housing prices in Dacheng diverged. The housing price in the central urban area fluctuated slightly, but still remained above 10,000 yuan, while the housing price in the edge area of the county declined significantly. The unit price of the community where Guo An's parents live once touched 10,000 yuan, then the transaction was sluggish, and the price fell all the way to the current 4,000 to 5,000 yuan per square meter.

The above-mentioned agent said that since 2024, the local new housing market is dominated by existing home projects, and most developers are local enterprises. Even if the sales of some projects are slow, developers are unwilling to cut prices.

According to the public information of Dacheng Housing and Urban-rural Development Bureau, in October 2025, the average sales price of an existing home project was 11,000 yuan per square meter, the highest price was 15,000 yuan per square meter, and the lowest price was 7,000 yuan per square meter. No new housing projects have been publicized since 2026.

Similar to Dacheng, the housing demand in Jungar Banner mainly comes from local residents' self-occupation. There are not many outside developers, and even fewer property speculators. In Li Xiang's impression, the local housing price has never dropped sharply.

Flush data also shows this trend. From October 2019 to December 2020, the average second-hand housing price in Jungar Banner was 7,000 to 8,000 yuan per square meter; from January 2021 to May 2023, it was 8,000 to 9,000 yuan per square meter; since then, it has remained at around 9,000 yuan per square meter.

Ejin Horo Banner, adjacent to Jungar Banner, also has stable housing prices. Flush data shows that since 2019, the second-hand housing price there has mostly stayed at 7,000 to 7,900 yuan per square meter.

Qian'an, a county-level city under the jurisdiction of Tangshan, is supported by industrial economy. Flush data shows that in the second half of 2017, the average second-hand housing price in Qian'an once exceeded 8,000 yuan per square meter, then began to decline, and has remained at around 6,000 yuan per square meter for many years.

Horinger, a county under the jurisdiction of Hohhot, is the location of Mengniu Group and an important computing power base of the "East Data, West Computing" project. Flush data shows that since 2019, the second-hand housing price in this county has mostly stayed at 4,000 to 5,000 yuan per square meter, except for a few months when it exceeded 5,000 yuan per square meter.

Divergence of Rise and Fall

Since 2015, expectations such as the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the construction of Beijing Municipal Administrative Center and the construction of Beijing New Airport have promoted the heating up of the real estate market around Beijing. Yanjiao, Dachang, Xianghe, Gu'an, Yongqing and other places have attracted a large number of outside home buyers, and the real estate market has entered a period of rapid growth.

From the end of 2015 to the first half of 2017 before the tightening of the purchase restriction policy, the housing prices in some districts and counties around Beijing rose by about three times. In the same period, Dacheng, located at the southernmost end of Langfang, had a small increase in housing prices, rising from 6,000 yuan per square meter to about 8,000 yuan per square meter. The above-mentioned Dacheng agent said that restricted by geographical location, very few outside property speculators entered the Dacheng real estate market.

2017 was an important turning point for the real estate market around Beijing. In March of that year, Beijing tightened purchase restriction measures; in June, Langfang followed up, bringing Langfang urban area, the three northern counties, Gu'an, Yongqing, Bazhou and Wen'an into the purchase restriction scope. Dacheng is the only district and county in Langfang that is not included in the purchase restriction. After that, housing prices around Beijing began to decline. Since the second half of 2023, the second-hand housing prices in most areas around Beijing have fallen below 10,000 yuan.

Up to now, the second-hand housing prices in Gu'an, Yongqing and other places have returned to the level before the rise in 2015. The second-hand housing price in Dacheng exceeded the 10,000-yuan mark in the second half of 2018. Although it has undergone adjustment since 2023, the housing price in the central urban area still remains at around 10,000 yuan.

Kunshan is an important satellite city around Shanghai. Like most cities in China, the housing price in Kunshan began to accelerate upward from the end of 2015, rising to 13,000 yuan per square meter in 2016, and the housing price in Huaqiao area adjacent to Shanghai once approached 30,000 yuan per square meter.

After Kunshan implemented purchase restriction in September 2016, the transaction volume decreased, but the price did not drop significantly. From 2017 to 2021, after the adjustment, the housing price in Kunshan rose again, and the highest monthly average transaction price reached 18,000 yuan per square meter. Since 2023, the Kunshan real estate market has entered an adjustment period.

A local real estate agent told the Economic Observer that the second-hand housing price in Kunshan has dropped significantly mainly in Huaqiao area. There were a large number of property speculators in the early stage. After the real estate market adjustment, the speculators left the market, and the housing price dropped by more than 40%. The housing price fluctuation in the main urban area of Kunshan is relatively small, with a decline of about 20%.

Different from the areas around Beijing and Shanghai, although small cities such as Jungar Banner, Horinger, Shishi, Qian'an and Shouguang have mostly experienced the rise since the end of 2015 and the adjustment since 2022, compared with cities with concentrated property speculators, these markets dominated by local demand have an overall housing price decline of less than 20%.

There are still some small cities across the country that are less affected by this round of real estate cycle. Especially in some small cities in northwest and southwest China, the economy is underdeveloped, the population is small, real estate transactions are not active, and some small cities do not even have real estate agencies.

The above-mentioned person in charge of the regional real estate enterprise said that at present, the housing supply in most small cities in western China tends to be saturated. Residents do not lack houses, but lack high-quality houses, and the future market opportunity lies in product upgrading.

Diverse Situations of Small Counties

In Jungar Banner, Li Xiang signed up for the welfare housing lottery, mainly to change his apartment and reduce housing purchase expenditure, not for the space of housing price rise or price difference arbitrage. He said that local residents do not lack houses.

Jungar Banner does not have the geographical advantage of being adjacent to first-tier cities, and residents' income mainly depends on local industries and employment. The 2026 government work report of Jungar Banner reveals that the per capita disposable income of local urban residents in 2025 was 66,000 yuan, which is lower than that of districts and counties in the Yangtze River Delta such as Kunshan, but also higher than that of many other districts and counties.

Horinger has a solid industrial foundation of computing power and dairy industry. The per capita disposable income of urban residents is less than 50,000 yuan, and the local housing price is relatively stable, but the average second-hand housing price is significantly lower than that of Jungar Banner.

The above-mentioned person in charge of the regional real estate enterprise said that small cities with good industrial bases have more employment opportunities for residents and higher income. In places such as Qian'an and Wu'an in Hebei, the wages of employees in coal, metallurgy and other industries are much higher than the local average level. These employees, together with employees of administrative institutions and business people, constitute a relatively stable group of home buyers.

In this round of real estate adjustment, the fluctuation range of housing prices in Kunshan is smaller than that of the three northern counties around Beijing, which is related to its strong economic strength to a certain extent. In 2025, the per capita disposable income of urban residents in Kunshan reached 79,000 yuan, ranking at the forefront of the whole country.

The industrial structure of Dacheng is different from that of Kunshan, Jungar Banner and Qian'an. Dacheng is the largest production base of thermal insulation and energy-saving materials in China, of which rock wool and glass wool account for 40% of the national market, and rubber and plastic insulation materials account for about 60% of the national market. In 2025, the per capita disposable income of local urban residents was about 50,000 yuan.

Guo An said that when young people in some areas of Hebei get married, even if they live in rural areas, they need to own an apartment in the county seat, which supports the local housing demand to a certain extent. The rural population of Dacheng accounts for about half, and the urban population is just over 200,000.

The stable housing prices in some western small counties are related to the vast land, sparse population and stable demand. Outsiders who want to buy a house can't find the sales office for new houses and can't find agencies for second-hand houses, and transactions are mainly introduced by acquaintances. Local residents also rarely regard buying houses as an investment way.

A real estate person who develops projects in western counties told the Economic Observer that these small counties basically do not lack houses, and there are houses at different price levels. The price of a new apartment ranges from 70,000 to 200,000 yuan, and there are many debt-offset apartments. When the homeowner is in urgent need of money, he is willing to sell the apartment for only 30,000 to 40,000 yuan.

Most of these small counties with relatively stable housing prices have not experienced the concentrated influx of property speculators; the main urban area of Kunshan relies on its strong economic strength to buffer the impact brought by the entry and exit of property speculators. The above-mentioned person in charge of the regional real estate enterprise said that property speculators often enter and exit the market quickly, amplifying market demand in a short time and pushing housing prices up rapidly. Once the supply increases or policies are tightened, the price rise is blocked, the speculators sell off and leave the market, the housing prices go down accordingly, and the local self-occupation demand is difficult to digest the new supply and the centrally sold houses in a short period of time.

In his view, in addition to the change of supply and demand brought by property speculators, product difference is also an important factor affecting housing price fluctuations. After new high-quality products come out, the attractiveness of existing houses declines, and old, small and shabby residences are prone to depreciation.

(As requested by the interviewees, Guo An and Li Xiang are pseudonyms)

This article is from the WeChat Official Account "Economic Observer", written by Tian Guobao, published with authorization from 36Kr.