More than 30 "Double First-Class" universities have built new campuses, and nearly half of them are located in the central and western regions and Northeast China.

As the "Double First-Class" initiative enters its 10th year, its focus has shifted from "expanding the institutional list" to "constructing new campuses". During the National Day holiday, construction sites of new campuses for multiple "Double First-Class" universities, stretching from Xiong'an New Area to the banks of Xiangjiang River, remained in full operation, with the construction boom continuing to heat up.

Beneath this boom lies a long-standing imbalance. When the second-round list was released in 2022, the number of national "Double First-Class" universities rose to 147, with 7 new additions. In terms of regional distribution, the long-standing pattern of "more institutions in the east, fewer in the central and western regions" has not been fundamentally reversed: 87 universities are located in the east, accounting for 59.2% of the total, while the central and western regions combined have 60, taking up 40.8%.

Four years on, the state is no longer merely adding new names to the list, but directly allocating funds to build new campuses.

Li Chao, spokesperson for the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), recently disclosed at a press conference that over 30 new campuses of "Double First-Class" universities have entered the large-scale construction phase, supported by policy funds including central budgetary investment and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds.

In terms of spatial layout, the construction of new campuses is accelerating its integration into major regional strategies, balancing non-capital function relocation and weak link improvement. On one hand, it supports universities based in Beijing including Beijing Jiaotong University and University of Science and Technology Beijing to relocate to Xiong'an New Area and plan and construct new campuses there; on the other hand, around 50% of the new campus projects for "Double First-Class" universities supported by the "Two Priorities" initiative are located in the central-western and northeastern regions.

Nevertheless, administrative allocation can reshape the geographical distribution of universities, while the flow of talents and industries follows market logic. How can this dilemma between "layout planning" and "free flow" be resolved?

Where Does the Funding Come From and Where Is It Invested

This is not the first time the state has invested in building new "Double First-Class" campuses, but the iteration speed of this round has increased significantly.

2024 marked the starting point. After the adjustment of the second-round "Double First-Class" university list, funds began to follow the layout planning. The NDRC revised the *Administrative Measures for the Special Central Budgetary Investment in the Infrastructure Construction Project for Building a Strong Education Country*, including the construction of new campuses for "Double First-Class" universities into the scope of central budgetary investment support for the first time, setting the maximum support limit per university at 3 billion yuan. In the same year, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds were directed to the higher education sector for the first time.

Further expansion came in 2025. The "Two Priorities" initiative included the quality improvement and upgrading of higher education in its supported fields. Of the 800 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds issued that year, a large proportion was designated to "accelerate the construction of new campuses for some "Double First-Class" universities, to strongly support the expansion of high-quality undergraduate education".

By September 2026, phased achievements have been fully delivered. As Li Chao revealed, over 30 new campuses of "Double First-Class" universities have entered the large-scale construction phase.

Over the three years, investment tools have been upgraded, the scale of funds has expanded, and the coverage scope has kept expanding.

Why are the funds invested at this specific point in time?

First, look at the demographic trend. According to a research report from the National People's Congress, the population of school-age people for higher education follows a trend of "rapid rise - short plateau - sharp decline". The scale of current students is expected to peak around 2032, and drop significantly around 2040. According to public reports, the school-age population for higher education will reach its peak at a level between 16 million and 17 million.

Before the peak arrives, corresponding pressures have already emerged.

The 147 "Double First-Class" universities across the country only accommodate around 10% of the total number of college students. The supply of high-quality degree places has long been tight, and the demographic peak is approaching. The construction of new campuses is intended to make up for the capacity of high-quality higher education degree places and school-running conditions within this window period. The NDRC's investment projects are exactly the pre-construction investment to achieve this goal.

Where do the funds flow? Geographically, the funds are clearly tilted towards the central-western and northeastern regions. Among the new campus projects for "Double First-Class" universities supported by the "Two Priorities" initiative, around 50% are located in the central-western and northeastern regions.

In terms of academic disciplines, the direction of fund flow has been defined from the very beginning.

Different from the past when central funds were mainly used to fill hardware gaps, the use of this sum of funds is very clear: to support independent technological innovation and independent talent cultivation.

Looking at the discipline list of these new campuses, over 90% of the disciplines are basic disciplines, emerging disciplines and interdisciplinary disciplines, supported by more than 120 national major teaching and research platforms.

Nanjing University is a typical case. Its new campus focuses on the layout of low-altitude technology and engineering, integrated circuit science and engineering, brain-computer interface, and optical quantum technology — almost all of which correspond to the current key core fields. The funds invested in the disciplines point to a clear goal: to align the scientific research output of universities directly with the urgent needs of national strategies.

The change in discipline orientation also reflects the transformation of the development stage of higher education.

Zhang Duanhong, associate professor at the Institute of Higher Education of Tongji University, said in an interview with *Times Weekly* that in the past few decades, higher education in China followed an extensive development path dominated by enrollment expansion and campus expansion, which solved the problem of "scale". After entering the popularization stage, the focus has shifted to structural optimization and quality improvement, targeting to address the issues of "quality, structure and contribution".

Tilt of Incremental Resources to Correct Regional Imbalance of Higher Education Resources

Optimizing the regional layout of higher education is the most distinct structural feature of this round of investment in new "Double First-Class" campuses.

The spatial allocation of high-quality higher education resources in China has long faced structural imbalance. The 2023 final account data of national "Double First-Class" universities shows that the total funding of universities in western China is only 27% of that of universities in eastern China. The 147 "Double First-Class" universities are mainly concentrated in provinces and municipalities including Beijing, Shanghai and Jiangsu, while provinces such as Hebei, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia only have 1 "Double First-Class" university respectively.

Even larger gaps exist in academic disciplines. Taking the data of the first round of "Double First-Class" construction as an example, 331 world-class disciplines are selected in the eastern region, while the western region only has 51, meaning the number in the east is about 6.5 times that of the west.

As the stock gap cannot be closed in the short term, the increment of resources has become the most practical starting point.

Among the new campus projects for "Double First-Class" universities supported by the "Two Priorities" initiative, around 50% are located in the central-western and northeastern regions. The specific locations are already clear: China University of Petroleum (Beijing) has built a new campus in Karamay, filling the gap that Xinjiang has no high-level engineering university; the new campus of Northwest A&F University focuses on arid-region agriculture, with priority on cultivating high-level talents in the fields of crop breeding, water-saving engineering, and loess ecological restoration.

Zhang Duanhong pointed out that this measure is aimed at "promoting equity", by allocating incremental resources to correct the long-term misalignment between the distribution of high-quality higher education resources and the demographic distribution.

While the central-western and northeastern regions are making additions, Beijing is making corresponding subtractions. The 4 first-batch relocated universities including Beijing Jiaotong University, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing Forestry University and China University of Geosciences (Beijing) have all located their new campuses in Xiong'an New Area, which are expected to open for operation in September 2027.

Zhang Duanhong analyzed that this path is intended to "optimize the structure". By orderly relocating the excessively concentrated non-capital functions in Beijing, high-quality higher education resources are used to "attract talents and industries" to the new city, driving the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the functional restructuring of world-class urban agglomerations.

The two paths point to the same goal: to leverage the redistribution of talents, industries and innovation factors across regions through the spatial reallocation of higher education resources. Behind this lies the transformation of the logic of higher education resource layout — shifting from "following historical inertia" to "following national regional strategies".

Dual Variables of Talent Retention and Demographic Cycle

Building the campus is only the first step. The real test lies in whether the completed campus can retain faculty, attract students, and bring in industries.

Zhang Duanhong judged that the current round of policy has a precise direction, seizing the final window period of the 15th Five-Year Plan. But the success does not depend on how many buildings are constructed, but on three things: whether the scale reserves flexibility according to the demographic curve, whether the quality is synchronously migrated with the new campus, and whether the features and financial status are sustainable.

In the past few decades, the spatial allocation of China's higher education resources has been swinging between national strategies and market logic. The westward relocation of universities in the 1950s and 1960s was driven by administrative orders, with local supporting facilities delivered at one time, but the subsequent school-running conditions lacked continuous support, and many universities later moved back to the east.

Different from the past, this round of "Two Priorities" funds is sourced from ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, and directly allocated in the form of project system, which does not rely on the immediate supporting capacity of local finance, ensuring sufficient funds during the construction period.

But what happens after the construction is completed?

Take Xiong'an as an example. The relocation of 4 Beijing-based universities including Beijing Jiaotong University and University of Science and Technology Beijing to Xiong'an is defined by the NDRC as "an important measure to implement the coordinated development strategy of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region", and it requires the new campuses to align precisely with urban functions, to promote "talent aggregation, work-living balance, and industry-city integration". In other words, the relocation of universities is essentially the reallocation of population, industries and urban functions in a region.

However, the government can decide where the campus is built, but cannot decide where people and enterprises will flow. This touches on the issue of what the government and the market should be responsible for respectively.

"The current round of "Two Priorities" funds are invested in public goods and long-cycle strategic fields, which is exactly what the government should do," Zhang Duanhong added. But "effective governance" has its prerequisites: the government sets the direction, builds platforms, fills weak links, and holds the bottom line, while the specific operation of disciplines is left to universities, and competitive links are handed over to the market. The government exerts efforts where the market fails, and stops intervening where the market operates effectively.

Whether the school-running quality can be synchronously delivered in the new campus determines whether people are willing to come. Whether people can stay after arrival tests more comprehensive conditions. Universities rely on administrative allocation to obtain funds during the construction period, but during the operation period, the flow of talents, industries and funds follows market logic. For universities in the central-western and northeastern regions, what can they rely on to retain talents and industries?

"Universities in the central-western and northeastern regions do not retain talents by offering sky-high salaries, but by building a favorable ecosystem for talents to give full play to their capabilities," Zhang Duanhong explained. This requires leaving sufficient development space for talents, establishing flexible employment mechanisms, and introducing and developing high-quality industries to gather talents.

Even if talents are retained, there is another long-term variable: what will happen to the new campuses after the school-age population for higher education reaches its peak?

According to estimates, the school-age population for higher education will peak around 2032, and drop significantly around 2040. The scale of the current round of new campuses is based on the peak demand. The academic community has concerns that if the population drops faster than expected after the peak, the degree capacity and faculty establishment will face adjustment pressure, and the newly built campuses may be left idle.

Zhang Duanhong believes that the peak demand can only be used as a reference for long-term capacity, not as the benchmark for one-time completion. The prudent approach is to "reserve blank space for scale, maintain flexible functions, arrange elastic faculty, and support diversified uses". Through phased and convertible design, the uncertainty of idleness after the peak is eliminated before construction starts. It is necessary to seize the window period of filling weak links in the 15th Five-Year Plan, and also reserve sufficient solutions for the "ebb period" after 2032.

This article is from WeChat official account "Times Weekly", author: Song Kexin, published with authorization from 36Kr.