There is no "savior" in the National Day holiday film slate.

For the 2026 National Day film release window, as of September 28, 12 films have confirmed their release schedules, with total pre-sale box office exceeding 23 million yuan. The film slate covers multiple genres including crime suspense, family comedy, parent-child animation, thriller horror, and imported action. Their release dates are spread from September 30 to October 5, presenting a seemingly bustling scene.

However, behind this bustle lies an unavoidable fact: none of the films in the entire release window is a super blockbuster that can capture nationwide public attention. Main melody blockbusters are absent, as are domestic heavy industrial productions, and all films are of medium scale.

This situation is not unique to this year. The total box office of the 2025 National Day release window was 1.835 billion yuan, with 50.07 million admissions, a decline from the previous year. Lacking the driving force of hit headliner films, the market performance was relatively dim. Looking further back, the 2023 National Day release window saw films like *Under the Light* and *Ex-Files 4* jointly driving the market, pushing the total box office of the window to 2.735 billion yuan.

At the same time, what deserves more attention is the ongoing changes in the industry under this "no absolute headliner" pattern. The 2026 summer release window recorded a box office of 12.498 billion yuan and 340 million admissions, up 4.45% and 5.86% year-on-year respectively, hitting the best performance of summer release windows in the past three years. However, no single film in the window exceeded 3 billion yuan at the box office.

Without super blockbusters, why is the overall market recovering moderately? Will the market continue to move forward steadily without super blockbusters during this year's National Day release window?

Parent-child films lead pre-sales, the final outcome is determined after release

The top three on this year's National Day pre-sale list are *Peppa Pig: Perfect Holiday*, *Detective's Traces* and *The What Couple*, with their combined pre-sale and advance screening box office reaching about 17.55 million yuan.

A parent-child animated film has outperformed the crime suspense blockbuster directed by Chen Sicheng to rank first in pre-sales, a result that would have been almost unthinkable for the National Day release window five years ago.

But when you look into the reasons, it is understandable. As the first 3D animated film in the Peppa Pig franchise, it brings fresh IP appeal, and its advance screenings during the Mid-Autumn Festival accumulated early consumption from a group of parent-child audiences. The "one adult with two children" or even "one adult with three children" family travel pattern during the National Day holiday naturally amplifies the leverage effect of a single ticket.

Another film scheduled for October 1, *New Big Head Son & Small Head Father: The Eye of Heaven Series: The Out of Control Seventh Day*, is also an important supply for the rigid parent-child viewing demand during the National Day window. This film's IP enjoys high public recognition: the TV animations and previous theatrical versions have built awareness among generations of parent audiences, and it has a stable base of young child viewers.

*Peppa Pig* targets preschoolers, while the audience of *New Big Head Son & Small Head Father* may slightly extend to lower primary school grades. This differentiation allows both films to secure their respective share of screening schedules and box office.

To put it simply, taking children to watch movies during long holidays is a rigid demand, which has little to do with the quality of the film itself. The co-production and distribution lineup involving Huace Film & TV, Hasbro, China Film, and Maoyan also shows that the industry has reached a consensus on the basic market of the parent-child track.

However, leading in pre-sales does not mean leading in the end. None of the top 5 highest-grossing films in the 2025 National Day release window was the pre-sale leader. Pre-sales reflect pre-release marketing reach and schedule positioning, and the real decisive factor is always word-of-mouth fermentation after release.

Data from Maoyan Professional Edition shows that a considerable proportion of the "want to watch" audience for *Peppa Pig: Perfect Holiday* comes from bulk marking by parent-child accounts, while most of the "want to watch" audience for *Detective's Traces* comes from active choices of individual users, so the conversion efficiency of the former is naturally lower than the latter.

This rule has actually been verified once during this year's summer release window. The total box office of the 2026 summer release window was 12.498 billion yuan, with 38.51 million screening sessions hitting a record high, and the average ticket price was 36.74 yuan, the lowest since 2022. However, no super blockbuster with a box office of "3 billion yuan+" emerged in the window, replaced by a multi-film relay pattern of "one 2.3 billion yuan+ film and three 1.5 billion yuan+ films".

Ticket prices have dropped, screening sessions have increased, and the growth rate of admissions has outpaced that of box office, indicating that the price leverage is indeed playing a role. Audiences are not unwilling to go to cinemas, but are evaluating whether each ticket is worth buying in a more rational way. The top four highest-grossing films in the summer release window, *Kung Fu Women's Football*, *Welcome to Dragon Restaurant*, *Eight Immortals!*, and *Spider-Man: Fresh Day*, all grossed over 1.5 billion yuan. There is no absolute king, but the mid-tier films are strong enough to support the overall market.

Thus it can be seen that the pre-sale pattern of this year's National Day release window is essentially a continuation of the summer release window experience. Parent-child films and suspense films have found their respective audiences, not fighting to the death on the same track, but starting at the same time on different tracks.

From the industry perspective, this is much healthier than betting on a single blockbuster. The average ticket price of the 2026 Spring Festival release window dropped to 47.8 yuan, down 6% year-on-year. Although the admissions fell back to 120 million, the lower ticket price lowered the threshold for watching movies. Audiences have become more price-sensitive, and their requirements for content quality are rising simultaneously.

The current market has shifted from "release window dividend-driven" to "high-quality supply-driven". The brand effect of release windows is declining, and audiences' ability to judge content is on the rise.

The suspense track is crowded, and the comedy track is no easy ride

*Detective's Traces* is the only new film in this year's National Day release window whose number of "want to watch" users has exceeded 100,000, with Douyin topic views exceeding 7.64 million. Written and directed by Chen Sicheng, starring Zhang Yi, Ma Li and Chen Minghao in lead roles, it is adapted from the true deeds of Cui Daozhi, a criminal investigation expert and recipient of the July 1 Medal.

Judging from the lineup on paper, this is almost the most reliable film in the National Day release window. Chen Sicheng has mature experience in operating commercial crime suspense genres, Zhang Yi's audience appeal and acting reputation have been verified over years, and the adaptation from real cases naturally carries the weight of realistic themes. The producers include Xinli Media (under China Literature) and Maoyan Entertainment, which have opened up the whole chain from content development to distribution.

However, this film also faces considerable problems. First of all, the criminal investigation suspense genre ranks among the most dependent on word-of-mouth across all genres. Once the audience feedback is poor after release, the box office trend will drop more sharply than other genres. At present, *Detective's Traces* has not been rated on Douban's rating page, and there are only 257 comments in the short comment section, which is not a large number, and public opinion feedback is not sufficient.

Chen Sicheng's previously directed works show obvious polarization in word-of-mouth: his supporters think he understands the rhythm and pleasure of genre films, while critics think his films cannot stand scrutiny in terms of logic and depth. This time, shifting to adaptation of real heroic deeds is his most obvious creative direction adjustment in recent years. Whether he can strike a balance between authenticity and drama will only be known after the film is released.

The competition around the suspense genre goes far beyond *Detective's Traces*. Among the 12 films in the National Day release window, crime suspense films account for nearly half.

*War of Investigation* stars Louis Koo, taking the route of Hong Kong-style police and gangster films; *Reborn 2* continues Ma Yuko's revenge action series, with the previous installment grossing 464 million yuan and scoring 5.6 on Douban. Director Ma Yuko once said that he makes hardcore films that county-level young people find enjoyable, and does not pursue those empty and pretentious things of art films; there are also two thriller films *Exorcism Curse* and *Embroidered Shoes in the Old Mansion* that target horror film audiences.

It seems that each film has a relatively clear differentiated positioning and its own highlights, but in fact, the crime suspense genre naturally has an audience ceiling in the special National Day release window.

During long holidays, audiences' movie-watching decisions are more affected by social and family factors, and the audience base of family-friendly films, comedies and parent-child animations is much larger than that of dark-toned crime suspense films. None of the top 5 highest-grossing films in the 2025 National Day release window was a pure crime suspense film.

*Reborn 2* temporarily ranks first in screening schedules on its release day, October 3, but there is no obvious gap in the schedule share with the second-ranked film on the same day, indicating that all cinemas are adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Gudu has interviewed multiple cinema managers, who all agreed that if a suspense film has good word-of-mouth, its screening cycle can be extended; if the word-of-mouth is poor, the schedules will be cut after the first weekend. No one dares to bet all their chips on a single genre film at the pre-sale stage.

The situation of the comedy track is slightly different, but it is not optimistic. *The What Couple* is Shen Chunyang's directorial debut, in which she also plays the lead role, with Xiao Shenyang, Jia Bing and Yu Yang as lead actors. It features northeastern comedy and family comedy elements, and is positioned for family-friendly viewing scenarios.

*Full of Life* focuses on the romantic relationship issues of the middle-aged and elderly groups, with three powerful actresses Yan Ni, Yip Tong and Ni Hongjie as the leads. It is the only film in the National Day release window that features the silver-haired group as the protagonists. The silver-haired romance theme has rarely been intensively developed in major release windows before, and it will soon be verified whether this blank means market opportunities or market blind spots.

Judging from pre-sale data, *Full of Life* is currently in the middle position, not in the top three. However, female audiences and middle-aged and elderly audiences' movie-watching decisions during holidays often do not depend on pre-sales, but are made on site at cinemas according to screening schedules and word-of-mouth. This part of incremental audience has not been tapped at all.

From a more macro perspective, the difference in competition intensity between the suspense and comedy tracks reflects the structural problem of genre supply in the Chinese film market.

The crime suspense genre has become the most concentrated track for medium-scale films because of its controllable cost, established genre formula and solid audience base. Although the comedy genre has a wider audience, the threshold for creation is rising. Audiences are increasingly picky about "laugh points", and comedies that simply stack gags and celebrities can hardly gain market recognition.

Although *The What Couple* and *Full of Life* are both labeled as comedies, the former relies on the regional advantage of northeastern comedy, while the latter relies on the realistic sense of social issues, taking completely different paths. The film that can eventually stand out is most likely not the one that makes people laugh the loudest, but the one that makes the audience think "this is exactly what happens in my family".

1.6 billion or 1.8 billion yuan? Word-of-mouth is more valuable than pre-sales

An easily overlooked change in this year's National Day release window is the decentralization of release dates.

*The Heart of the Beast* leads the release on September 30, six films are released intensively on October 1, *Reborn 2* and *Exorcism Curse* follow on October 3, and *Haunted House* and *Hotel 404 Horror* close the window on October 5.