Will housing prices surge sharply under the system of selling completed homes?

On August 28, 2026, multiple government authorities including the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Ministry of Natural Resources, National Administration of Financial Regulation, People's Bank of China, and China Securities Regulatory Commission intensively released a number of landmark documents. After the introduction of the new policies, claims of "completed houses are coming, and housing prices will surge sharply" have emerged in the market. We believe this judgment remains questionable. After the implementation of completed house sales, the pace of new projects entering the market has slowed down to some extent, but the existing supply is still relatively sufficient, and the possibility of a sharp rise in housing prices is low, which is mainly based on two key considerations:

First, the market supply-demand relationship has undergone major changes, and the current supply of new residential properties is sufficient.

After nearly 30 years of rapid development, the supply-demand relationship in China's real estate market has undergone major shifts, evolving from a period of strong housing demand and undersupply to a state of structural oversupply, and the era of housing shortage has come to an end.

Although the completed house sales policy has slowed down the launch of new projects in the short term, this round of policies does not adopt a uniform nationwide "one-size-fits-all" approach. Instead, it implements classified policy arrangements of "old projects follow old rules, new projects follow new rules". Most of the stock and ongoing projects will be advanced at the original pace, the overall new residential supply remains relatively sufficient, the completed house sales policy will not cause a sharp reduction in short-term market supply, and there is no supply-side support for a sharp surge in housing prices.

Judging from national data, according to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, by the end of July 2026, the total unsold area of new commercial residential properties across the country was approximately 409 million square meters. Data from the China Index Academy shows that by the end of July, the available residential area in 50 key cities reached 291 million square meters, indicating relatively sufficient new supply in the market.

Second, from the perspective of real estate enterprises' cost side, the current policy authorities have simultaneously launched supporting measures such as optimizing the payment method for land transfer premiums and increasing financing support, which are expected to ease and offset the rising capital cost pressure faced by real estate enterprises during the transition to completed house sales.

Specifically, the supporting policies work comprehensively at multiple levels to provide strong support for the transition to completed house sales.

First, the development loan policy has been further optimized. By optimizing arrangements such as loan term and usage, the support for development loans is increased, helping enterprises ease the pressure of large upfront investment and long capital occupation cycle under the "build first, sell later" model of completed house sales.

Second, capital market financing support is continuously increased. Support is provided through multiple channels including bond issuance and equity financing, to expand the medium and long-term capital sources of enterprises, optimize the financing structure and reduce the comprehensive financing cost of enterprises.

Third, optimizing the payment method for land transfer premiums and the rational decline of land prices will also directly reduce the land cost of completed house projects from the source. Recently, the first land parcel in Guangzhou that adopts the "completed house sales commitment system" was successfully transferred. As supporting policy support, the government allows the land transfer fee to be paid in installments — no less than 50% of the total amount shall be paid within 30 days after the contract is signed, and the full payment shall be settled within 2 years, which can ease the upfront land payment pressure of enterprises.

In addition, the policies require optimizing the engineering construction approval process and shortening the administrative approval time limit, so enterprises are also expected to digest costs by improving quality and efficiency. In the process of industry transformation, real estate enterprises are expected to improve operational efficiency and shorten the construction cycle through refined management, standardized construction, and supply chain collaboration, to gradually digest cost pressure, rather than simply pass on the cost to housing purchase prices. At the same time, for real estate enterprises at present, recovering funds through sales remains the top priority, so it is expected that they will be very cautious about raising project prices.

Under the combined effect of the above multiple factors, the comprehensive cost faced by real estate enterprises in the transition to completed house sales is expected to be effectively offset, creating favorable conditions for a smooth transition.

Through comprehensive analysis, we believe that the overall impact of completed house sales on housing prices is limited. The completed house sales policy will guide real estate enterprises to return to competition based on product strength and quality, promote the transformation of the industry from the old model of "high debt, high turnover, high leverage" to a new high-quality development model that focuses on quality and efficiency, and will also push the real estate market to return to rationality. In the future, housing prices will be more determined by real supply and demand, as well as factors such as the location, quality and service of the properties.

This article is from the WeChat Official Account "China Index Academy", author: China Index Academy Research, published with authorization by 36Kr.