How does the market weather vane look for Shanghai's first land auction after the new policy?

On August 31, 2026, the bidding for Shanghai's 8th batch of centralized residential land in 2026 was completed. This is the first centralized land auction in core cities after the new policy of the Notice on Improving the Commercial Housing Sales System was released.

Judging from the results, this land auction in Shanghai has basically achieved the corresponding goals.

The two plots auctioned this time are located in Zhenru, Putuo and Sijing, Songjiang respectively, with a total transaction amount of about 15.6 billion yuan. The core complex plot in Zhenru was won by China Overseas Land & Investment at the base price, with a total price of 15.02 billion yuan, making it the land king by total transaction price in 2026. The low-density pure residential plot in Sijing, Songjiang was transacted after 29 rounds of bidding with a premium of 16.41%, which is higher than market expectations.

From this land auction in Shanghai, two trends can already be observed: first, low-density land will be more favored by real estate enterprises; second, first-tier cities and hot cities will become increasingly dominant.

01

On the last day of August, the 8th batch of land auctions in Shanghai in 2026 came to an end. A total of two plots were launched in this land auction, among which the core complex plot in Zhenru was won by China Overseas Land & Investment at the base price, with a total transaction price of 15.02 billion yuan, giving birth to the land king by total transaction price within the year.

This plot was formerly the land of Tongchuan Road Aquatic Market. After years of land consolidation, the partial adjustment of the regulatory detailed plan was completed at the end of 2025, and the originally planned core commercial and office land was adjusted to a group pattern of two residential plots and one commercial plot.

The plot is located in the core functional area of Zhenru Urban Sub-center, on the northwest side of the intersection of Caoyang Road and Tongchuan Road, close to Zhenru Station, the transfer station of Line 11 and Line 14, with outstanding rail transit accessibility. Across the road to the south is the already opened COHL City MAX Shopping Mall. Surrounding commercial and office projects such as Zhenrujing TOD Complex and The Riverside Place have been put into operation one after another, with a mature commercial and business atmosphere. The plot is surrounded by the Taopu River and Zhenru Port water system, and the Zhenru Green Corridor runs diagonally through the interior of the plot, with both ecological and landmark attributes. It is the last piece of contiguous development land in the core area of Zhenru, with scarce location value.

With a total price of 15 billion yuan, only a few players are qualified to participate in the bidding. For China Overseas Land & Investment, this is not just a simple land acquisition. The currently opened COHL City MAX is a commercial project developed and operated by China Overseas Land & Investment. This time, it has acquired the core group of residential and commercial offices, further completing the commercial-residential integrated layout. Winning the plot at the base price shows that the value consensus of high-quality assets in the core area remains stable, without irrational fluctuations.

Looking at the Sijing plot in Songjiang, it attracted four enterprises to participate in the bidding, and was finally won by the consortium of Guomao and Frasers Property after 29 rounds of bidding, with a total price of 582 million yuan, a transaction floor price of 25028 yuan per square meter, and a premium rate of 16.41%.

The plot is a pure residential land with a total land area of 19372.68 square meters, a floor area ratio of only 1.2, a maximum building height of 24 meters, and a greening rate of no less than 35%. It is a rare low-floor-area-ratio residential land in Shanghai's suburban areas in recent years, and it is also the first pure commercial residential land launched in Sijing for nearly three years.

The plot is located in the mature residential area in the north of Sijing Town, bounded by Liuwu Highway to the east, Planned Road 7 to the south, and adjacent to rivers on both the west and north sides, with a good ecological interface. In terms of transportation, the plot is about 1.2 kilometers away from Sijing Station of Metro Line 9 in a straight line, which can quickly connect to the rail transit line through bus feeder services. Line 9 directly reaches core employment business districts such as Qibao, Caohejing and Xujiahui, which is the main commuting channel for rigid demand and improved demand groups along Songjiang. The surrounding living facilities are fully completed, covering full-age education resources including Songjiang Experimental School Affiliated to Shanghai Normal University, Sijing No.3 Primary School and Songjiang No.4 Middle School within 3 kilometers, as well as complete medical and commercial supporting facilities such as Songjiang District Sijing Hospital, Sanxiang Commercial Plaza and Baolehui Life Plaza, with high daily living convenience and a mature overall living atmosphere.

The transaction floor price of 25028 yuan per square meter this time is 3900 yuan per square meter higher than the floor price of the Zhaoshang Times Trend plot, showing a significant rise in the land price level of the block. Behind this result is not only the scarcity support brought by the three-year supply gap of pure commercial residential land in the block, but also the product differentiation space given by the low floor area ratio of 1.2, fully reflecting that high-quality low-density residential land in mature suburban blocks still has strong market appeal.

02

On August 28, 2026, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Ministry of Natural Resources, and the State Administration of Financial Regulation jointly issued the Notice on Improving the Commercial Housing Sales System, officially implementing the existing home sales system. (See "The Era of Existing Homes Has Truly Arrived!" for details)

There are three provisions in the new policy directly related to the land side:

1. Commercial housing projects with newly transferred land shall prioritize existing home sales;

2. Real estate enterprises must purchase land with their own funds, and the land transfer price can be paid in installments;

3. The project implements the host bank system, and the issuance of development loans matches the construction cycle.

As the first centralized land auction in core cities after the new policy, Shanghai has presented the first answer sheet with two plots, and two trends can be observed so far.

For real estate enterprises, the land acquisition logic needs to recalculate two accounts, one for the city, and the other for the product.

From the perspective of cities, the new policy is actually a favorable factor for first-tier cities and hot cities. This is mainly because at the city level, the new policy equalizes the conditions for first-tier, second-tier, third-tier and fourth-tier cities, and the conditions for ordinary cities have not improved significantly. Instead of putting funds there, it is better to concentrate on investing in hot cities with more stable and sufficient overall demand.

For third-tier and fourth-tier cities, which originally had scattered land transactions, the impact is limited.

From the perspective of products, low-density land will be more favored by real estate enterprises in the future. Even with the "priority of existing home sales", the construction period of low-density multi-story products is controllable. Some real estate enterprises can even complete the rough completion and acceptance of small high-rise and multi-story products within 12-18 months, and such completion speed has relatively little impact on sales return. The 29 rounds of bidding for the Sijing plot in Songjiang and the premium rate higher than market expectations confirm this logic.

At the same time, real estate enterprises will be more cautious about projects with long cycles such as super high-rise buildings and urban renewal. From this Shanghai land auction, although the Zhenru plot was transacted at the base price, the fact that it was taken over by China Overseas Land & Investment itself is a signal. In the future, large-volume, long-cycle core plots will continue to be concentrated in leading real estate enterprises with strong capital strength and continuous deep cultivation capabilities.

From the perspective of land prices, we believe that land prices will not be as hot as before, and the overall operation will be stable in the future.

The stable transaction of core blocks and the rising premium of scarce suburban plots are the answers given by the first land auction after the new policy.

The differentiation of the land market is more direct than that of the new housing market: high-value land becomes more valuable, and scarce land becomes more sought-after.

The transaction performance of the two plots in the 8th batch not only provides market feedback for the subsequent structural optimization and rhythm control of Shanghai's land supply, but also will become an important reference for the pricing and expectation trend of the new housing market during the "Golden September and Silver October" period.

This article is from the WeChat Official Account "Ding Zuyu Comments on Real Estate", written by the Editorial Department and Prism Research, and authorized for release by 36Kr.