Tech stocks plummet, public funds issue urgent interpretations
A-shares plummet with expanded trading volume, who is fleeing? Public funds swiftly conduct research to set key priorities for investments!
On August 19, the A-share market witnessed a "tragic" adjustment. The Shanghai Composite Index once again lost the 3900-point integer mark, the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index plunged sharply. The total market trading volume reached about 2.53 trillion yuan, an increase of about 110 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day. The fall with expanded trading volume means real "selling off" of capital.
Unitree Robotics stole the show in the humanoid robot sector, technology growth tracks including semiconductors, CPO, memory chips, and humanoid robots led the decline, while low-valuation defensive sectors such as coal, banking, oil and petrochemicals rose against the trend, and the market structure showed a distinct feature of "high-low switch".
"It rose for half a month, but all gains were lost in one day!" Many investors expressed confusion about this sharp adjustment. After market close, multiple public funds issued statements, conducting in-depth analysis from dimensions including overseas transmission, internal trading structure, and industrial prosperity.
Why did it fall back to 3900 points again? External shocks are the main cause
For the reason of today's sharp adjustment, multiple fund companies directly pointed to overseas factors, believing that the double blow of the surge in global long-term interest rates and the plunge of US tech stocks is the main cause, while the profit-taking demand and position-unwinding pressure accumulated in the previously popular internal sectors amplified the adjustment range.
First, the global long-term bond sell-off triggered panic over valuation contraction. Golden Eagle Fund pointed out that the yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds hit a new high since 2007, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds simultaneously broke through 4.7%, approaching the high point of the year, and the global asset pricing center continued to move upward. What is more noteworthy is that this round of bond market turmoil is a global structural market, and bond yields in many economies around the world such as France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Japan have all climbed to high levels.
"The core anomaly of the current market is concentrated in US Treasuries and gold. Although the US CPI, PPI and retail data have posted three consecutive positive figures, the US Treasury yield remains high. The fundamental reason is that the source of inflation pressure has shifted from consumption to investment." Hwabao Fund stated that the large-scale financing and construction of AI infrastructure, together with the surge in long-term bond supply, jointly formed the dual pressure of high bond yields.
Second, the plunge of US tech stocks and the AI narrative have been questioned. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed sharply down by about 5% overnight, with previously strong sectors such as memory and optical communications leading the decline, and panic quickly spread to the Asia-Pacific market.
Great Wall Fund believes that behind this, the market has begun to price the debt financing risk behind the huge capital expenditure of AI.
Citic-Prudent Fund further pointed out that since August, the issuance scale of US investment-grade bonds has hit a new high for the same month in previous years for the third consecutive month. As AI infrastructure construction fuels corporate borrowing, large data center projects have to offer higher yields to lock in sufficient funds in the bond market.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management also emphasized that the rise in long-term interest rates directly exerts valuation pressure on high-duration tech growth assets.
Third, the underperformance of overseas AI enterprises' earnings deepens concerns. The annualized revenue of AI enterprise Anthropic as of the end of July is about 65 billion US dollars, which is lower than the market expectation of 78 billion to 80 billion US dollars. The market is worried that its revenue growth rate may slow down, and further drag down the downward adjustment of capital expenditure expectations.
Qianhai Open Source Fund pointed out that OpenAI's Q2 revenue growth rate was only 18%, which triggered market concerns about the downstream demand of AI terminals.
In addition, the internal trading chips in the A-share tech sector are concentratedly released. Xinda Aoya Fund stated that after the short-term rebound of the previously popular tech growth sector, some funds cashed out or switched to low-valuation defensive sectors, which aggravated the selling pressure of high-position sectors.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management also pointed out that over the past month, tech tracks such as memory have undergone deep adjustments. After the recent rebound, the concentrated release of position-unwinding demand has become the core trigger for the accelerated decline of the market.
"The market is still in the process of rebalancing. After the rapid rebound of the short-term tech growth sector, there is a certain demand for adjustment. The adjustment is a concentrated release of sentiment from external liquidity shocks and internal profit-taking demand." Yang Chao, fund manager of Jxin Fund, said.
The trend of the tech industry remains unchanged, but public funds still have differences in rhythm judgment
Although short-term market volatility has intensified, most public institutions believe that the AI industry trend has not ended, and this adjustment is a "strong pullback" rather than a trend reversal. However, fund companies have differences in the judgment of the tech sector rhythm.
Xinda Aoya Fund stated that the trend of the tech industry has not reversed, and patience is still needed. In the short term, the market enters the window period of interim performance disclosure, and it can be observed whether the earnings reports of leading companies that exceed expectations can bring positive feedback to the market. In the medium term, driven by factors such as the continuation of the general tone of "moderate easing" and the approaching of the US mid-term elections, it is expected that the A-share risk appetite at the end of the third quarter will usher in a favorable window period for long positions again.
Wu Chunlin, fund manager of Southern China Dream Flexible Allocation Fund, also expressed confidence in the AI direction, believing that although there are differences in the slope of current AI development, the direction is upward, and there are a large number of mispriced opportunities with reasonable valuations and continuously strengthened fundamentals. Many links have extremely strong endogenous growth momentum, including domestic substitution, capacity ramp-up, new product verification, etc., which can also achieve good growth during the fluctuation of AI slope.
The interviewed fund companies believe that the probability of the market fluctuating upward is greater, and the downward space is limited.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management believes that the slope of the subsequent market may slow down significantly, and it is expected to show a pattern of fluctuating upward. As the rebound enters the "deep water zone", the market's sensitivity to external disturbances and changes in chip structure has increased significantly. Strategically, we can maintain confidence in the mid-term upward trend of A-shares, but tactically, we need to pay more attention to rhythm control and structure selection.
Guotai Fund is also optimistic about the opportunity of market rebound amid fluctuations. The market has pulled back for the second time recently, but the fundamental trend of technology continues to be fulfilled. In the past two weeks, the overseas earnings season has intensively verified the accelerated fulfillment of computing power prosperity, and the health of the AI industry has been further confirmed. The previous decline mainly stemmed from technical aspects and position factors, rather than a reversal of fundamentals.
Qianhai Open Source Fund pointed out that from the long-term trend, at present, there is no interest rate hike cycle or economic recession at the global economic level, and the possibility of the end of the market is low; the trend of the AI industry is far from being falsified, and the possibility of the end of the global AI main market is also small. Considering the potential policy support during the subsequent meeting between China and the United States and the US mid-term election, the downward pressure is limited.
Great Wall Fund believes that the pullback is a normal fluctuation in the mid-to-late stage of the bull market. There is no substantial deterioration in the molecular side such as AI demand and interim prosperity, which is closer to a "strong pullback" rather than a trend reversal. It is necessary to continuously track the sustainability of global AI capital expenditure, the US Treasury yield and the overseas deleveraging process, as well as the fulfillment of interim performance.
How to allocate? Balanced layout of technology and dividend, focus on performance fulfillment
In terms of allocation suggestions, most public institutions tend to maintain a balanced strategy: on the one hand, lay out the oversold tech tracks supported by prosperity on dips; on the other hand, allocate the dividend value sector as a defense, waiting for new catalytic signals.
In the tech direction, public funds suggest focusing on the main line of independent controllability such as domestic computing power and semiconductor equipment.
Yang Chao believes that the adjustment provides a rare reallocation opportunity for high-quality growth assets. In the tech direction, we can focus on domestic AI computing power, semiconductor equipment and materials and other domestic substitution directions.
Citic-Prudent Fund provides support from the perspective of industrial data. The company stated that since the second half of 2026, the global semiconductor industry may usher in a new round of price increase cycles. Many chip manufacturers such as ADI and BYD Semiconductor have successively issued price adjustment announcements. STMicroelectronics' third price adjustment in the year reflects that the upward pressure on industrial chain costs continues. The continuous iteration of chip manufacturing processes is expected to further open the growth ceiling of upstream equipment. CMP (Chemical Mechanical Polishing) has been upgraded to the fourth core process, and the listing of leading domestic memory enterprises is also expected to promote the domestic CMP industrial chain to usher in new opportunities.
Guotai Fund suggests selecting leading companies with strong demand certainty in the main line of AI hardware, and tilting to lithium batteries, innovative drugs, non-bank financials, and export chains in non-tech directions.
In terms of dividend value, the defensive allocation value is prominent. In the process of market rebalancing, dividend sectors such as banks, coal, and power have attracted the attention of many institutions.
Hwabao Fund suggests focusing on thematic rotation directions such as dividends, precious metals, and domestic chains in the short term, and focusing on strategic resources, AI, new energy and other directions in the medium and long term.
Golden Eagle Fund pointed out that current capital is shifting from a single main line to multi-prosperity direction rotation. We can focus on directions with strong resource constraints such as rare earths and non-ferrous metals, as well as sectors with relatively stable profitability and defensive attributes such as coal and chemicals, as well as non-bank financial sectors with improved fundamentals and low position pressure.
Behind the balanced allocation is that the main line in August has not yet been clarified. Qianhai Open Source Fund suggests leaning towards offensive positions at present, but the direction may rotate. The main tech line is clear in the long run, and the cost performance has improved significantly compared with before. Since the hardware sector has undergone substantial adjustments before, market confidence is not as good as before. We can specifically focus on tech directions with lower congestion.
This article is from WeChat official account "China Fund News" (ID: chinafundnews), author: Yan Jun, 36Kr is authorized to publish.