Known as "the Hermès of the gold industry", its market value has evaporated by more than 100 billion in a year.

On the 27th, Laopu Gold, known as the "Hermès of the gold industry", released a positive profit warning, forecasting that its sales performance (tax-included revenue) in the first half of 2026 will reach approximately 22.7 billion to 23.35 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of about 60% to 65%; its revenue will reach approximately 19.8 billion to 20.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60% to 66%; and its non-IFRS adjusted net profit will reach approximately 4.31 billion to 4.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 83% to 85%.

This strong performance report from Laopu Gold failed to reverse the cautious sentiment in the capital market. On the 28th, Laopu Gold's stock price opened nearly 13% lower, hitting an intraday low of HK$297 (approximately 257.28 yuan at the current exchange rate), and closed at HK$302.2 (approximately 261.79 yuan), down 23.76%. Compared with its peak in July last year, its market value has evaporated by more than 100 billion yuan.

Deviation Between Performance and Stock Price

Laopu Gold stated in its announcement that the performance growth is mainly driven by the continuous expansion of brand influence, product iteration and upgrading, and the increase in repurchase rate among high-net-worth clients.

However, compared with last year, the growth rates of Laopu Gold's revenue and net profit have both slowed down significantly. Data shows that in the first half of 2025, Laopu Gold achieved operating revenue of 12.354 billion yuan, representing a 251% year-on-year increase; its profit for the period was 2.268 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 285.8%.

In the secondary market, Laopu Gold's stock price has been declining continuously over the past year. According to Wind data, looking back, Laopu Gold has been on a downward trend since hitting its all-time intraday high of HK$1108 (approximately 959.8 yuan) on July 8, 2025 (with a closing price of HK$1082, approximately 937.3 yuan), with a maximum decline of over 71% during the period.

As of the close on the 28th, Laopu Gold's market value is approximately HK$53.412 billion (46.268 billion yuan), representing a cumulative evaporation of over HK$130 billion (approximately 112.6 billion yuan) compared to its peak in July last year.

According to Wind data, along with the decline in its stock price, Laopu Gold's price-to-earnings ratio has contracted from more than 50 times at its peak in July 2025 to the range of about 10 times, which is basically in line with the valuation range of traditional gold and jewelry enterprises such as Chow Tai Fook and Laofengxiang.

Zhang Cuixia, chief investment advisor at Jufeng Investment, told China News Finance in an interview that Laopu Gold's net profit is expected to increase by more than 80% in the first half of the year, but its stock price has continued to decline. The core of this deviation lies in the market's re-examination of its growth sustainability, gold price risks, and the valuation logic of luxury goods.

Zhang Cuixia believes that Laopu Gold's short-term pressure mainly comes from two aspects: first, the sharp drop in gold prices combined with the absence of hedging measures has put high-priced inventories at risk of impairment; second, the decline in gold prices has weakened the value preservation function of gold products, suppressing speculative gold-buying demand.

Xu Gaoming, Chairman, General Manager, and R&D Director of Laopu Gold, has repeatedly stated publicly that the company does not use any hedging tools, including gold leasing and futures, to offset the risk of gold price fluctuations.

Whether Laopu Gold's ancient craftsmanship can support the brand's high premium has also been a subject of continuous market debate. Zhang Cuixia pointed out that ancient craftsmanship has been widely imitated by peers, leading to increasingly fierce industry competition. The explosive 221% year-on-year revenue growth in 2025 is more like a one-time dividend rather than a long-term trend, and the valuation logic is shifting from "growth premium" to "sustainability discount". In addition, funds in the Hong Kong stock market have continuously concentrated in the technology sector, and trading in the consumer discretionary sector is sluggish, further suppressing the room for valuation recovery.

Zhang Cuixia analyzed that Laopu Gold's brand premium is still highly dependent on the trend of gold prices, failing to establish absolute pricing power independent of raw material costs like international luxury brands such as Hermès. Its technological barriers are also increasingly converging, making it difficult to support the weak cyclical attribute unique to luxury goods.

Wu Zewei, a special researcher at Soochow Commercial Bank, analyzed to China News Finance that the high-premium fixed-price model is more vulnerable to demand contraction when consumer expectations weaken, indicating that Laopu Gold has not yet shaken off the cyclical attribute of the gold category, and this impact will exist for a long time.

He believes that the current phased high growth has strong cyclical characteristics, and subsequent expansion will become significantly more difficult. Fluctuations in gold prices, weakening end-market demand, and inventory impairment will all impose constraints on profitability.

Expert: Track Three Signals Going Forward

Looking ahead, Zhang Cuixia predicts that Laopu Gold's full-year revenue and net profit growth rates will fall back to the range of 30% to 40%, bidding farewell to triple-digit growth. However, thanks to its high-end customer base that highly overlaps with that of LV and Hermès, double-digit growth will still maintain resilience.

The 2025 financial report shows that by the end of 2025, Laopu Gold had 610,000 members. The overlap rate of its consumers with the five major international luxury brands including LV, Hermès, Cartier, and Bvlgari reached 82.4%.

She judges that the valuation will anchor at the intermediate state of "gold retailer with brand premium", with a reasonable P/E ratio center of 15 to 18 times, and the possibility of returning to the high luxury level of more than 30 times is low; if the continuous decline in gold prices triggers impairment concerns, the valuation may be further compressed.

Zhang Cuixia believes that three signals need to be closely tracked in the future: the trend of gold prices, whether the premium per gram can be maintained above 30% during the sideways or downward period, and whether the proportion of non-wearable collectibles such as gold bars can be increased to weaken consumer attributes and move closer to the logic of asset allocation.

She concluded that the current valuation has fully reflected the pessimistic expectations, and there may be rebound opportunities during the sales peak window from the second half of the year to the Spring Festival, but the systematic recovery of the high-valuation logic still needs to be verified by the above signals.

Wu Zewei said that if the brand can continuously verify its independent pricing ability and weaken the impact of raw material cycles, there is a foundation for valuation recovery; if customer flow remains sluggish and profit growth slows down, the market will gradually downplay its luxury narrative, and its valuation system will completely align with that of traditional gold and jewelry enterprises.

Laopu Gold warned in its announcement that the current performance data is a preliminary assessment by the board of directors and has not been audited by the auditor. The official interim results are expected to be released in August.

Laopu Gold believes that with the gradual implementation of targeted strategies such as new product launches and high-value customer management, coupled with the continuous optimization and expansion of its store network, the driving forces supporting the group's revenue and net profit growth will become significantly apparent in the second half of 2026.

The views in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risks, so caution is advised when entering the market.

This article is from the WeChat official account "China News Finance" (ID: jwview), written by Li Ziman, edited by Lin Wansi, and with responsible editors Wei Wei and Luo Kun. It is published with authorization from 36Kr.