Driven by the synergy of computing power, energy and capital, the valuation logic of data centers has been profoundly reconstructed

 In 2025, the scale of China's data center industry exceeded 300 billion RMB. According to JLL's whitepaper *Reconstructing the Value of New Computing Infrastructure: AI-Driven Asset Valuation Management for Data Centers*, spurred by the rapid growth of AI large model training, high-density computing power, and liquid cooling demands, the core competitiveness of data centers is no longer limited to traditional real estate indicators such as building area and cabinet count, but focuses on dimensions including power capacity, power supply stability, cooling efficiency, and continuous operation and cash flow management capabilities. As a result, the data center industry is moving away from the "construction-focused" era and entering a new phase of "operation-focused, resource-focused, and collaboration-focused" development. 

From a valuation perspective, the income approach is widely adopted for data center valuation, as the fundamental rationale for market participants to acquire data centers lies in the achievable future operating cash flows, rather than static land or building costs.

However, the aforementioned shifts in value drivers have made their valuation logic more complex and sophisticated than that of traditional commercial real estate. The key to valuation is not merely looking at the contracted area, but verifying whether the contracts correspond to actual operational capacity, whether clients have stable payment capabilities, and whether the onboarding ramp-up aligns with the mechanical and electrical delivery and client testing cycles. Emphasis must also be placed on capital expenditures from continuous updates of mechanical and electrical equipment, power cost transmission mechanisms, and project operational risks. 

Han Jing, Senior Director of JLL Valuation & Advisory Services, analyzes: "When determining the critical discount rate and capitalization rate, it is necessary to examine not only industry risks, operational maturity, location tier, operational management capabilities, and lease structures, but also key variables such as energy assessment and compliance risks, market supply and demand dynamics, transaction liquidity premiums, and future growth expectations. Meanwhile, due to the relatively low transaction activity, higher operational complexity, and greater asset heterogeneity of data centers, their discount rates are typically higher than those of high-standard logistics assets in the same location, to reflect higher risk-return requirements." 

The Trend of "Computing-Power and Electricity Coordination" Is Emerging, Making Energy a Core Valuation Variable 

In traditional valuation contexts, energy is often regarded as an operational cost. However, against the dual backdrop of surging computing power demand and tightening power quotas, energy for data centers is no longer just an operational cost, but a fundamental resource that determines whether they can generate revenue.

Therefore, new energy and source-grid-load-storage systems should not be understood solely from an ESG or energy conservation perspective, but their functional pathways should be re-identified within the valuation model: they alter not only the probability of revenue realization, but also the slope of the cost curve, and may even reshape investors' judgments on project risks. 

In China, green power, long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), distributed new energy, and integrated "source-grid-load-storage" systems are gradually evolving from ESG concepts into core factors affecting project expansion capacity and financing capabilities. Especially in regions with strained power resources, energy security capabilities can even directly determine the future developable capacity and server onboarding capacity of data centers.

Nevertheless, JLL believes that new energy elements do not inherently equal "natural value appreciation"; the actual value of a project still depends on power supply stability, cost structure, policy mechanisms, and whether they can genuinely enhance the project's leasability and cash flow levels. Furthermore, as BESS energy storage, microgrids, and multi-energy complementary systems gradually mature, the data center industry is shifting from competition over single computing power resources to competition centered on the coordinated capability of "computing power + electric power".

From a valuation logic standpoint, the core function of "computing-power and electricity coordination" lies in improving the probability of future project revenue realization by enhancing power supply stability and reducing expansion uncertainty, thereby providing downward support for the discount rate. For the capital market, data center projects with long-term stable power sources, clear energy boundaries, and a high proportion of green energy usually represent stronger revenue certainty and lower financing risks. 

Data Center Securitization Accelerates, Valuation Logic Presents Three Major Trends 

As a hybrid infrastructure with "heavy assets + intensive operations", data centers are inherently suited to unlocking value through tiered capital structures. As capital securitization tools such as holding-type real estate ABS and REITs gradually include computing power infrastructure as underlying assets, the capital market's pricing logic for data centers is also being reconstructed.

JLL's whitepaper argues that securitization itself does not automatically drive up project valuations; the upper limit of capital market pricing ultimately depends on whether the assets themselves can continuously generate stable cash flows. Assets with long-term stable power sources, mature client structures, and high operational transparency are more likely to gain capital recognition, while assets with excessive client concentration, unclear energy assessment ownership, or chronically low server onboarding rates may face stricter risk pricing. 

Looking ahead, data center valuations will follow three major trends — namely "pricing by capacity instead of area", "valuing operational systems over static assets", and "shifting from single properties to infrastructure portfolios". Going forward, high-value data centers will break away from the traditional constraints of building area and be priced primarily based on deliverable power capacity and energy resilience. Meanwhile, valuation standards will gradually transition from traditional property appraisal to infrastructure-oriented real estate appraisal.

"Currently, data centers are in an upward investment cycle. As a new generation of energy-sensitive infrastructure, 'computing-power and electricity coordination' is becoming a critical dimension for measuring asset value. Leveraging our long-standing expertise in REITs, holding-type real estate ABS, Pre-REITs, and particularly new energy asset securitization, JLL has developed cross-category service capabilities covering green energy and computing power infrastructure, including value appraisal. We are committed to empowering high-quality computing power and new energy assets with professional value, supporting the high-quality development of China's new-type infrastructure, and jointly fostering a new ecosystem of coordinated development between the digital economy and green finance," suggested Xiong Jianping, China Director of JLL Valuation & Advisory Services. He noted that future valuation work should be grounded in three dimensions: "resource boundaries, cash flow attribution, and risk mapping", to enhance the interpretability of valuations during capital market inquiries.