With the qualification for independent bidding now open, is the day coming when sodium-ion batteries will outperform lithium-ion batteries and challenge the computing power energy storage sector?
Sodium-ion batteries have obtained bidding qualifications for energy storage projects, yet large-scale deployment remains constrained by production capacity and delivery capabilities.
As learned from Foresee Energy and reported by Economic Observer, significant adjustments have been made to the current bidding rules for the Chengdu-Chongqing Computing Power Corridor, the Zhong Ning Intelligent Computing Cloud Base in Ningxia, and the "East Data, West Computing" Industrial Park in Ordos, Inner Mongolia. Both sodium-ion batteries and lithium iron phosphate energy storage systems now hold independent bidding qualifications, with the energy storage configuration scale of a single station in most projects reaching 50MW/100MWh.
Over the past two years, energy storage tenders for large computing power parks have almost exclusively accepted lithium iron phosphate. Sodium-ion batteries occasionally appeared only in demonstration special bid sections as a token presence. This time is different — sodium-ion batteries have obtained the admission ticket to compete on an equal footing with lithium iron phosphate, with evaluation criteria applied equally, covering not only initial procurement costs but also low-temperature performance, supply chain security, and the full-life cycle cost per kilowatt-hour.
The bidding channel has been opened, yet a strange phenomenon has emerged: most enterprises participating in sodium-ion battery bids declare a capacity ranging from 5MWh to 20MWh, and very few are willing to independently undertake the full 100MWh bid section. A person in charge of energy supporting facilities at a park stated: "It's not that we are being conservative; it's that this is the only feasible approach at this stage. Sodium-ion batteries have been included in the bidding documents, but the delivery side is not yet ready."
Sodium-ion batteries have obtained a VIP ticket, only to find themselves insufficiently prepared after entering the arena.
01
The Cost Gap Is Narrowing
But Not Yet to the Point of Full Confidence
A research report from Northeast Securities at the end of June shows that the current total cost of sodium-ion battery cells is approximately 0.33 to 0.42 yuan/Wh, while that of lithium iron phosphate is 0.33 to 0.34 yuan/Wh. The gap mainly lies in two links — the high price of hard carbon anodes, and the consumption of sodium hexafluorophosphate is several times that of lithium batteries.
The gap is indeed narrowing, and industry insiders reveal that the cost difference between large sodium-ion battery cells and lithium iron phosphate has been reduced to around 0.1 yuan/Wh. Dongwu Securities has a more aggressive forecast: As the industrial chain support matures, the cost of sodium-ion batteries is expected to drop to 0.2 to 0.3 yuan/Wh.
However, between "expected" and "already" lies a hard carbon production line.
In the first quarter of 2026, the cost of sodium-ion battery cells has dropped to 0.35 to 0.40 yuan/Wh. Multiple institutions judge that from the end of 2026 to 2027, sodium-ion batteries are expected to achieve cost parity with lithium iron phosphate. CATL has even provided a more specific timeline: By the end of 2026, the cost of sodium-ion batteries will catch up with that of lithium iron phosphate.
However, on the quotation sheets at the computing power energy storage bidding site in June, most of the cost advantage of sodium-ion batteries has been eroded by the rising price of hard carbon. A person in charge of bidding at an energy storage integrator said: "At the beginning of the year, when we submitted sodium-ion battery solutions, Party A would pay extra attention due to the cost advantage. By June, cost was no longer a plus."
02
Hard Carbon
The Lifeblood and Also the Achilles' Heel of Sodium-Ion Batteries
One of the biggest selling points of sodium-ion batteries is "no lithium required". The most constrained aspect of lithium batteries is the high external dependence on lithium resources, significant price fluctuations, and ever-present geopolitical risks. Sodium resources are widely available, and in theory, there should be no supply chain bottlenecks.
However, "sodium" is not scarce, but "hard carbon" is.
Hard carbon is the only commercialized choice for sodium-ion battery anodes, and domestic hard carbon production is highly dependent on imports of coconut shell raw materials from Southeast Asia, resulting in severe insufficient independent controllability of the supply chain. Worse still, it takes 18 to 24 months for the industry to complete the process from project approval to stable mass production of a standardized 10,000-ton-level hard carbon production line. Newly approved capacity expansion projects in 2026 cannot form effective supply within the year.
The imbalance between supply and demand deteriorated rapidly after the issuance of Document No. 34. In April 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the National Data Administration jointly issued the "Action Plan for Promoting the Two-Way Empowerment of Artificial Intelligence and Energy" (Guo Neng Fa Ke Ji [2026] No. 34). This document systematically binds computing power infrastructure with grid-forming energy storage for the first time, encouraging computing power facilities to be equipped with grid-forming energy storage to enhance power supply stability and active support capabilities for the power system.
As a result, the energy storage standards for computing power parks across the country have been adjusted in a concentrated manner, and the pilot channels for sodium-ion batteries have been opened in batches. The originally scattered small-batch demand has converged into centralized procurement expectations in a short period. However, the upstream hard carbon production lines cannot keep up, and the spot market has already tightened before the arrival of the June bidding season.
The result is: The price of hard carbon has risen from the range of 32,000 to 47,500 yuan per ton. At the beginning of the year, sodium-ion battery systems of the same capacity had a clear cost advantage over lithium iron phosphate, but after two rounds of hard carbon price increases, the price difference has continued to narrow.
A salesperson from a hard carbon material enterprise calculated the following: Head manufacturers with locked-in long-term hard carbon supply agreements can still accept orders of 50MWh or more, but most small and medium-sized manufacturers in the industry, constrained by material supply, can only operate in small-capacity bid sections.
This explains why no one dares to bid for large orders at the tender site — not that they don't want the orders, but that they can't deliver even if they accept them.
03
Computing Power Energy Storage
The Most Promising Scenario for Sodium-Ion Batteries, and Also the Most Cruel Testing Ground
The requirements of computing power energy storage for batteries are completely different from those of wind and solar energy storage.
The load of AI computing centers fluctuates greatly and frequently, and the energy storage system needs to perform frequent and rapid frequency regulation. This places much higher demands on cell consistency and BMS dynamic regulation algorithms than static energy storage. However, the development and commissioning cycle of the entire control system is longer than expected, making it impossible to deliver mature large-capacity solutions in the short term.
Low temperature is another practical issue. In the western computing power hubs, the minimum temperature in winter is between minus 25 and 35 degrees Celsius. Even with thermal insulation, the discharge capacity loss of lithium iron phosphate energy storage prefabricated cabins at low temperatures still reaches 15% to 22%. In the first half of 2026, a local urban investment company conducted actual tests using small-scale sodium-ion battery prefabricated cabins: in an environment of minus 30 degrees Celsius, the capacity loss of sodium-ion batteries was controlled within 5%.
The advantage of sodium-ion batteries in low-temperature scenarios is overwhelming, and data from Morgan Stanley also confirms this: in extremely cold environments, the capacity of lithium iron phosphate usually drops by about 50%, while sodium-ion batteries can still maintain over 90% of their capacity.
However, the problem is that performance advantages cannot make up for delivery shortcomings for the time being.
Relevant park energy supporting officials revealed that the platform has uniformly allocated 10% to 20% of the capacity for sodium-ion battery pilots. Calculated based on a single station of 50MW/100MWh, the pilot capacity is 10 to 20MWh. "This ratio has been carefully calculated" — exactly the "upper limit that sodium-ion battery suppliers dare to sign for at this stage".
The internal capacity allocation strategy of energy storage integrators is oriented as follows: "Lithium batteries secure main orders, while sodium-ion batteries are exclusively for pilot projects". Large-capacity bid sections prioritize lithium iron phosphate to ensure cash flow and delivery stability; sodium-ion batteries only moderately reduce profits in pilot bid sections in exchange for scenario verification opportunities.
This is not a strategic choice, but a limitation of capabilities.
04
Two Timelines Are Clashing
How Long Will It Take for Sodium-Ion Batteries to Truly Be Widely Adopted?
The industrialization pace of sodium-ion batteries and the construction pace of computing power energy storage are undergoing a misaligned competition.
The policy side is moving the fastest: Document No. 34 was issued in April, interpreted in May, and the bidding rules were revised in June. From policy issuance to project feasibility study adjustment, grid access plan review, and bidding plan approval, the entire process takes exactly one month.
However, the industrial side cannot keep up. The 18 to 24-month construction cycle of hard carbon production lines is a hard constraint. The production lines of sodium-ion battery cells dedicated to energy storage are still in the ramp-up phase, and the supply of supporting electrolyte is tight. CATL will not begin delivering the first batch of sodium-ion battery energy storage systems until September, and will not achieve GWh-level shipments until the end of 2026.
The judgment of mainstream industry institutions is: New effective hard carbon capacity is expected to be released in a concentrated manner in the second half of 2027, and the complete sodium-ion battery supply chain will be able to stably support the large-scale implementation of 100MWh-level computing power energy storage projects by 2028.
In other words, sodium-ion batteries have already "entered the game" in policy documents and bidding clauses, but they have not yet truly been in place in links such as material supply, production capacity delivery, and system support.
A person involved in policy discussions said: "This shows that the independent controllability of the energy storage industrial chain is a systematic project, and we cannot only focus on the main cell materials. Subdivision materials such as anodes and electrolytes also require simultaneous domestic capacity expansion and technological breakthroughs."
Morgan Stanley refers to sodium-ion batteries as the beginning of the "new oil era". They predict that the global share of sodium-ion batteries will surge from about 2% in 2027 to 20% in 2030 and 37% in 2035. By 2035, around 800 billion US dollars of new investment is expected to be formed around the sodium-ion battery industrial chain.
Samsung SDI has just announced a long-term investment plan of 25 trillion won (approximately 110.75 billion yuan) to build mass production lines for all-solid-state batteries, energy storage LFP batteries, and sodium-ion batteries in Ulsan. CATL has signed a three-year 60GWh long-term agreement for energy storage sodium-ion batteries — equivalent to 6.7 times the total global sodium-ion battery shipments in 2025.
The giants' bets are already on the table.
However, the scene at the computing power energy storage bidding site in June 2026 reminds everyone: From policy opening to industrial maturity, there is a river called "hard carbon" in between. Sodium-ion batteries have obtained the ticket to enter, but the boat to cross the river has not yet been built.
To conclude with a quote from a person in charge of energy supporting facilities at the relevant park interviewed by Economic Observer: "It is estimated that the large-scale release of hard carbon production capacity will not happen until the second half of next year. Before that, everyone should proceed with small, cautious steps."
This article is from the WeChat official account "Foresee Energy", written by Zhao Jianan, and published by 36Kr with authorization.