Inceptio's gray market trading falls below issue price: down nearly 20% at one point, closes 4% higher | Bell-ringing Moment

The "Bell Ringing Moment" column focuses on the crucial moment when a company officially enters the capital market. After every bell-ringing ceremony, the market delivers its first verdict on a company's growth, valuation, and fundamental quality.

On the eve of its listing, Ecarx Mining, the world's first stock focused on unmanned driving for global mining sites (07687.HK), traced a V-shaped trend on Futu's gray market. As of the close of the gray market at 18:30 on July 7, it closed at HK$91.50, representing a 4.07% increase from the issue price of HK$87.92. However, this uptick did not come easily: the stock saw a nearly 25% intraday amplitude, a classic trajectory that featured an opening below the issue price, a sharp mid-session plunge, and a late-session recovery.

For our in-depth report on Ecarx Mining, please see On the Eve of Listing: After Cashing Out Billions, He Steered His Mining Truck Business to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange

Ecarx Mining was ultimately priced at the upper limit of its prospectus range at HK$87.92, with a issued market capitalization of approximately HK$13 billion and a total share capital of 148 million shares. Today, the stock broke below the issue price immediately at the opening of the gray market, opening at HK$82.70, roughly 5.9% lower than the issue price. It then trended downward all the way, hitting a session low of HK$71.00, a 19.2% drop from the issue price, nearly erasing one-fifth of its value.

After that, the stock rebounded gradually, peaking at HK$92.70 (+5.4%) before closing at HK$91.50, with a full-day amplitude of 24.68%.

In fact, Ecarx Mining's gains are not solidly grounded. The average transaction price on the gray market stood at HK$87.07, still slightly below the issue price. This indicates that most of the day's transactions took place below the issue price, and the late-session uptick appears to be a deliberate push before the close, reflecting significant divergence between bulls and bears. Trading activity was also relatively subdued: total turnover reached approximately HK$94.07 million, with a turnover rate of just 0.73%.

Calculated based on the gray market closing price, the company has a market capitalization of HK$13.53 billion. With 2025 revenue of 1.435 billion yuan, its static price-to-sales ratio is approximately 8.2x, compared to roughly 7.9x based on the issue price. The company remains in a net loss position, rendering the price-to-earnings ratio inapplicable.

It is worth noting that CIDI (03881.HK), another player in the unmanned mining truck track and the first Hong Kong-listed stock focused on intelligent driving for commercial vehicles, saw its stock plunge 13.69% below the issue price on its first trading day after listing on December 19, 2025. It did not begin to recover until months later, driven by catalysts such as its inclusion in the Stock Connect program. Whether Ecarx Mining can hold its ground on its official first trading day remains to be verified tomorrow.

Since 2026, over 80% of new stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange have posted gains on their first trading day. The overall strong sentiment toward new stock subscriptions is one of the backdrops that enabled the late-session recovery in this gray market session. However, the public offering accounts for a relatively small proportion of total shares: 8 cornerstone investors subscribed for approximately 50% of the offered shares and are subject to a 6-month lock-up period. The immediately tradable share pool is relatively small, and such a thin float is a double-edged sword — it can easily drive the stock price up, but also makes it vulnerable to sharp downward swings, which explains the nearly 25% amplitude seen in the gray market.

That said, the gray market does not equate to official trading. As an over-the-counter market, it does not represent the price trend on the official listing day. The trading volume and pricing after the official listing tomorrow (July 8) will be the real verdict.