After burning through 500 billion yuan, BOE has started generating profits for its shareholders.

Author | Fan Liang

Editor | Zhang Fan

For a long time, BOE has been at the top of the list of "retail investor hubs" in the A-share market. In the first quarter of 2026, this position was taken over by Zijin Mining and Orient Fortune, but BOE still has over one million shareholders.

It has high popularity, but its stock price has stagnated for a long time. When BOE went public in 2001, the opening price was 3.54 yuan per share (adjusted for previous dividends); by the end of 2025, the closing price was 4.17 yuan per share. After more than two decades, the cumulative increase in the stock price was only 18%.

The heavy - asset investment and strong cyclical characteristics of the panel industry are the core factors restricting BOE's stock price performance. Since its listing, BOE has accumulated a capital expenditure of over 50 billion yuan and raised over 90 billion yuan through additional offerings; it has accumulated a net profit of approximately 70 billion yuan attributable to the parent company and an operating net cash flow of over 400 billion yuan after adding back depreciation and amortization. Most of this has been reinvested in reproduction, and the cumulative dividend scale is only 24.2 billion yuan. Therefore, BOE has long been priced by the market as a cyclical stock.

But in 2026, BOE enabled one million retail investors to make money. Since the market rally started on May 21st, BOE's stock price has risen by about 60% to date, hitting a new high since 2009.

The catalyst comes from its cooperation with Corning. On the evening of May 20th, BOE announced that the company had signed a cooperation memorandum with Corning. The two sides will cooperate in key fields such as glass - based packaging substrates, foldable glass, perovskite glass substrates, and optical interconnection - related applications.

BOE's sharp rise has once again popularized the concept of glass substrate packaging in the A - share market. So, can BOE break away from the old valuation system of its panel business this time and enter a new stock price platform?

Joining the computing power camp

Put simply, chip packaging involves fixing a bare chip on a packaging substrate, completing electrical interconnection, heat dissipation, and mechanical protection, so that the chip can be further installed on a PCB and operate stably in terminal equipment.

Currently, organic packaging substrates such as BT substrates and ABF substrates are still the mainstream in the packaging market. Among them, BT substrates are mainly used in storage, consumer electronics, and other fields; ABF substrates are more commonly used in high - performance products such as CPUs, GPUs, AI accelerators, and network chips.

For AI chips that need to integrate HBM, a silicon interposer is usually added between the chip and the organic substrate. Inside the HBM, vertical stacking interconnection is achieved through TSV, while high - speed interconnection between the chip and the HBM is achieved through the silicon interposer. The typical structure of TSMC's CoWoS - S is a "silicon interposer + organic substrate".

As the integration scale of AI chips continues to expand, the requirements for packaging size, interconnection bandwidth, and signal integrity continue to increase, and the silicon interposer is also beginning to face constraints such as size, cost, and production capacity. The glass - based packaging substrate using TGV technology has the characteristics of low dielectric loss, high dimensional stability, high flatness, and is suitable for large - size panel - level processing. Therefore, it is regarded as an important candidate for the next - generation advanced packaging.

TSMC is developing the panel - level advanced packaging CoPoS. The market generally expects that the glass - based packaging substrate may play an important role in the relevant processes.

In terms of the industrialization progress, the glass - based packaging substrate has begun to be verified or introduced in niche fields such as RF IPD, millimeter - wave devices, and CPO, but its application in AI chip packaging is still in the early stages of technical verification and industrialization. For example, according to TrendForce, at the OFC 2026 Optical Fiber Communication Conference, Intel demonstrated a glass core substrate prototype equipped with co - packaged optics (CPO) technology; in January this year, Intel also released the world's first commercial CPU using a glass - core substrate.

According to Yole Group data, the global advanced IC substrate market size is expected to grow from approximately 14.2 billion US dollars in 2024 to 31 billion US dollars in 2030 , corresponding to an average annual compound growth rate of about 14%. GF Securities believes that with its advantages of low dielectric loss, high dimensional stability, and high flatness, the glass substrate is expected to penetrate into some high - end packaging scenarios first and gradually replace some traditional organic substrate or silicon interposer solutions.

Therefore, in essence, BOE has entered the AI computing power narrative through its glass - based packaging substrate business and kept up with the hotspots in the computing power sector.

Not just hyping the concept, but no short - term performance

In the entire upstream and downstream industrial chain of glass substrate packaging, the upstream consists of glass substrate raw material suppliers, the middle stream consists of glass - based packaging substrate manufacturers, and the downstream consists of semiconductor packaging manufacturers. Currently, Corning is a glass substrate raw material supplier in the upstream, and BOE plays the role of a glass - based packaging substrate manufacturer.

Since LCD and OLED involve a series of processing steps such as TFT circuit etching, packaging, and module integration on the glass substrate, they also have the relevant technologies and manufacturing capabilities that can be transferred to the TGV glass substrate. Regarding the progress of the TGV glass substrate business, according to BOE's public disclosure on the investor communication platform:

The company started researching glass - based substrate technology in 2020, invested 390 million yuan in 2022 to build a wafer - level innovation experimental platform compatible with glass - based and silicon - based substrates, invested 993 million yuan in 2024 to build a board - level glass - based packaging substrate test line, completed the installation and debugging of the main equipment within 2025, and achieved full automation of the equipment line in the first half of 2026. The designed production capacity of this test line is 1,000 pieces per month.

Currently, the company has achieved the full - process technology of glass - based packaging substrates, including TGV hole - making, deep - hole copper filling, layer - building, and wiring , and completed the development and sample delivery of large - size, high - layer (9 - 2 - 9, 20 layers) glass - based packaging substrates in 2025. The company's target product is the glass - based substrate required for the advanced packaging of large - size computing power chips , which can match different advanced packaging methods. Currently, it has sent samples to some domestic customers, and some customers have passed the concept certification and entered the technical testing stage.

Therefore, BOE already has the implementable capabilities in glass - based packaging substrate manufacturing and has obtained the "ticket" for glass - based packaging substrates. In the future, it will expand production capacity based on the sample delivery and certification results.

Since 2026, the stock prices of companies in the computing power chain, especially those related to the "Dalian chain", have risen significantly. The most core support is that regardless of whether the narrative of the future AI bubble holds, these companies can present a bright report card to the capital market in the short term.

So, can BOE, which has seen a sharp rise, also deliver better - than - expected performance in the short term?

The answer is no. Regarding the large - scale commercialization node of glass - based packaging substrates, the market generally believes that it will enter the large - scale commercialization stage in 2 - 3 years. For example, Intel believes that it is expected to launch a complete glass substrate solution to the market in the second half of this decade (2020 - 2030). TSMC currently expects to complete its first CoPoS pilot production line in June this year, and the reasonable expected time for large - scale mass production is speculated to be from 2028 to 2029.

BOE itself also pointed out that according to the business development situation, it is expected that there will be no significant impact on the company's operating performance in the next 2 - 3 years.

Will the panel business become a cash - cow business?

So, is it possible for BOE's original panel business to have better - than - expected performance?

In 2025, BOE's TFT - LCD sales volume was 90.03 million square meters, and its AMOLED sales volume was approximately 2.26 million square meters, with year - on - year growth rates of 8% for both. Although the unit price of mobile phone AMOLED can be more than 10 times that of TV LCD, in BOE's revenue structure, LCD revenue still accounts for a relatively large proportion, roughly estimated to be over 80%.

In 2026, affected by the rising storage prices, the market generally expects a significant decline in mobile phone sales. According to CINNO data, the prices of various mobile phone panels have been continuously declining in 2026, which will significantly impact the revenue growth of BOE's AMOLED business. In terms of TV panels, although the 2026 World Cup will have a stimulating effect, institutions such as Omdia and Sigmaintell Consulting predict that the annual TV panel demand may decline.

This means that BOE will face significant growth pressure on its operating revenue in 2026.

In terms of profit, the company's profitability is affected by both panel price fluctuations and the progress of production line depreciation.

According to BOE's disclosure, the display industry has gradually entered the mature stage from the high - speed development stage of large - scale expansion. The company's capital expenditure amount will gradually decrease. At the same time, as the depreciation of existing production lines continues to decrease , the ongoing production line projects will also be transferred to fixed assets in stages considering the production capacity ramp - up situation. The company's overall depreciation amount will start to decline based on the level in 2025.

TCL Technology also pointed out a similar trend: the company's future capital expenditure will gradually decline; in terms of depreciation amount, 2025 was the peak of TCL CSOT's depreciation, and the depreciation will gradually decrease thereafter. However, the decline in 2026 will not be particularly significant, and the depreciation will decline more significantly in 2027 and later.

Overall, BOE's revenue growth rate in 2026 is likely to be under pressure, but its net profit and free cash flow are expected to remain stable, benefiting from the decline in depreciation and the reduction in capital expenditure respectively.

For BOE, although its revenue will be under pressure during the industry downturn, the decline in capital expenditure and depreciation may be interpreted by the market as a turning - point - style positive: BOE will start to generate more stable positive free cash flow and will no longer need to rely on large - scale financing as in the past.

Can it still rise?

Whether BOE's stock price can continue to rise in the future does not depend on how much short - term performance the glass - based packaging substrate business can contribute, but on whether the market is willing to redefine BOE: Is it still a cyclical panel company, or a platform - type company with stable cash flow and an "option" for AI advanced packaging?

If the logic that BOE's panel business turns into a cash cow holds, then with the support of the AI narrative of the glass - based packaging substrate, the market rally may not be over.

In 2025, BOE's EBITDA was 46.4 billion yuan, and its capital expenditure was 40.1 billion yuan. One of the important reasons why the market was reluctant to give it a high valuation in the past was that the money the company earned was quickly consumed by a new round of production line investment, making it difficult for shareholders to truly share the free cash flow.

However, if the display industry enters the mature stage and BOE's capital expenditure continues to decline, assuming that the future EBITDA remains stable and the capital expenditure gradually decreases to about 20 billion yuan, the company is expected to release free cash flow at the level of about 20 billion yuan.

On this basis, the glass - based packaging substrate business provides valuation elasticity. It is difficult to contribute short - term performance, but it is equivalent to adding a long - term option for BOE in the direction of AI advanced packaging. As long as the subsequent sample delivery, certification, customer introduction, and production capacity expansion continue to progress, the market may continue to price this part of the imagination space.

Conversely, if the logic that the panel business turns into a cash cow cannot be realized, BOE's stock price is likely to fluctuate with the sentiment in the computing power chain. Especially since the glass substrate cannot release short - term performance, once the computing power sector corrects, BOE may face more severe fluctuations.

Therefore, the key subsequent observation windows are the semi - annual report and quarterly reports. If the capital expenditure and depreciation do continue to decline and the operating cash flow remains stable, the logic of "panel cash cow + glass substrate AI option" will be more solid, and the stock price will be more likely to enter a stage where it is easy to rise and difficult to fall.

*Disclaimer:

The content of this article only represents the author's views.

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