From AR foam to the AI trend, Rokid is facing a crucial battle

Author: Xiang Qing, Editor: Zhao Yuan

Fourteen years ago, a live - streamed high - altitude skydive at a venue brought Google's AR glasses concept into the public eye for the first time. It also convinced Zhu Mingming, who was deeply involved in cutting - edge technologies at that time, that AR glasses would become the next best product form for human - machine interaction after PCs and smartphones.

Two years later, he left Alibaba to found Rokid and plunged into the nascent AR track.

During the years when waveguide technology was immature, terminal battery life was limited, and consumer scenarios were long absent, AR quickly went from a capital hot spot to an unpopular track. Many startups left the scene dejectedly.

Rokid tried different approaches among smart speakers, industrial AR, and cultural and tourism solutions, quietly waiting for the industry's turning point. Until the explosion of general large models, AI filled in the long - missing practical scenarios for AR glasses. Interaction needs such as translation, meeting recording, and real - scene recognition burst out, and the long - dormant track finally recovered.

According to reports from multiple media, Rokid is actively promoting its listing in Hong Kong, with an internal target listing window set for July this year. Before that, Rokid had completed a series of capitalization preparations, including completing the shareholding reform and introducing several industrial chain companies to participate in the equity layout, covering aspects such as optics, chips, batteries, and communications.

However, behind the prosperity, industry competition is intensifying. On the one hand, leading AR glasses manufacturers are still mired in large - scale losses. On the other hand, domestic mobile phone and Internet giants are quickly entering the market with their mature ecosystems, and overseas, Meta has long monopolized the global market share. A fierce battle among numerous players in the "hundred - glasses war" has suddenly begun.

Rokid, which has endured a ten - year winter to get an entry ticket, now has to answer the capital market's questions about profitability and defend its survival space among the giants.

I. A Company That Has Waited for Ten Years

In 2012, Google co - founder Sergey Brin took the stage wearing Google Glass. Engineers wearing Google Glasses parachuted from above a building in San Francisco, and the whole process was live - streamed to the venue via Google Glass, triggering the world's first attention to wearable smart devices.

Among them was Zhu Mingming, who was the head of Alibaba's M Studio at that time and was leading the exploration of deep learning and vision technology. Years later, he repeatedly expressed the same judgment on multiple occasions: AR will become the next - generation interaction platform after mobile phones, and AR glasses will be the next best product form for human - machine interaction after PCs and smartphones.

Two years later, Zhu Mingming left Alibaba to start a business and founded Rokid, betting on AR.

The industry atmosphere at that time was quite optimistic. In April 2014, Google Glass was just opened for public purchase. A few months later, Microsoft released HoloLens. This head - mounted display, which was touted as the next - generation computing platform after PCs and mobile phones, pushed the optimistic sentiment to its peak. Many people believed that smartphones would eventually be replaced by AR devices.

But the good times didn't last long.

At the beginning of 2015, Google officially announced that Google Glass was exiting the market. In the following years, the story of Microsoft's HoloLens became clearer. It targeted enterprise and professional scenarios. Magic Leap, an American AR company that was wildly pursued in the primary market and once had a valuation of billions of dollars, failed to live up to expectations in subsequent product releases, and its valuation story gradually collapsed.

The entire AR industry then fell into a trough that lasted for several years.

The reasons are not complicated. On the one hand, core technologies such as display modules, waveguides, chip performance, and battery life have never matured. A pair of AR glasses with real display capabilities often means a heavier body, higher costs, and a poor wearing experience.

On the other hand, even if the technical problems are solved, the industry has never found strong enough consumer scenarios. For most users, a pair of AR glasses costing thousands or even tens of thousands of yuan still cannot replace a mobile phone.

"It looks cool," but it has always been difficult to become a necessity. This has also led the capital market to be cautious about AR companies for a long time. In the past ten years, many AR startups have disappeared in the industry winter.

Rokid has become one of the few players that have persisted.

From smart speakers to AR glasses, from the consumer market to industrial scenarios, from cultural and tourism displays to enterprise solutions, this company has continuously adjusted its direction to gain survival space.

The turning point came after 2023.

With the breakthrough in large - model technology, AI began to endow glasses with new value.

In the past, AR glasses solved the problem of what to see, while AI glasses solve the problem of understanding the world in front of you and directly giving a response. Capabilities such as real - time translation, meeting recording, visual recognition, and intelligent Q&A have begun to give glasses real - world usage scenarios.

The AR glasses industry has regained the attention of capital.

Meta was the first to validate the market, and the sales of Ray - Ban Meta have been continuously increasing. Google has returned to the smart glasses track. Chinese technology companies such as Alibaba, Baidu, and Xiaomi have successively entered the market, betting on AI glasses.

The industry cycle that Rokid had been waiting for over a decade finally reached a turning point, and Rokid also welcomed its moment of capitalization.

In March 2026, the company completed the shareholding reform, clearing institutional obstacles for its subsequent listing on the capital market. In the following months, Rokid successively introduced six industrial chain enterprises, including Huace Film & TV, Conant Optical, Haopeng Technology, Aiwei Electronics, Guanghetong, and Jingzhida, completing a full - coverage layout of core industrial chain links such as content, optics, batteries, chips, communications, and testing.

After more than a decade of waiting, the AR glasses industry has finally reached the door of an IPO.

II. Can AI Save AR Glasses?

The biggest problem with AR glasses in the past ten years was that no one could clearly explain why consumers should wear them every day.

During those ten years, the mainstream answer in the industry was optical display. Using waveguide or Birdbath solutions, digital information was superimposed on the real - world view to create a future computing experience where what you see is what you get.

However, this route was inherently burdened with a heavy yoke. In order to accommodate the optical engine, display module, and optical devices, it was difficult for the product to be both lightweight, have long battery life, and high - quality images. Therefore, AR glasses have never won the favor of the general public. They are novel enough but not useful enough. They can attract geeks but cannot retain ordinary people.

The industry has been waiting for a killer scenario. Until the emergence of large models, which injected soul into AR glasses. Rokid also adjusted its product path in the AI boom.

In November 2024, Rokid officially launched the consumer - grade AI + AR glasses, Rokid Glasses. The whole machine weighs only 49 grams. It abandons the heavy optical engine stacking of traditional AR devices and retains a minimalist display module, accurately carrying lightweight and high - frequency information such as speech prompts, real - time translation subtitles, and driving navigation arrows. It is paired with a dedicated smart ring for convenient page - turning control.

Different from the extreme no - screen route in the industry, this product is a typical compromise solution of a lightweight body + partial practical display, accurately balancing the daily wearing experience and practical functions.

What really made the product break into the mainstream was an exposure in a public scenario.

On February 18, 2025, at the High - Quality Economic Development Conference in Yuhang District, Hangzhou, Zhu Mingming, the founder of Rokid, gave a speech without a manuscript while wearing Rokid Glasses. The whole speech manuscript was projected in real - time on the lens screen, and page - turning could be completed via the ring. Without paper manuscripts and without looking down for prompts, the intuitive and practical scenario made the general public instantly understand the practical value of AI glasses.

The video of Zhu Mingming giving a speech without a manuscript while wearing Rokid Glasses briefly went viral, allowing Rokid to break out of the industry circle for the first time and achieve a key leap in public recognition.

The popularity quickly translated into real - world market orders, and the market demand far exceeded the company's internal expectations. Rokid's internal expectation for the annual shipment volume at the beginning of the year was only 100,000 - 150,000 units. But official data shows that in 2025, the sales volume of Rokid Glasses exceeded 300,000 units, three times the original target.

At CES in 2026, Rokid iterated its product logic again and launched the new screen - less AI glasses, Rokid Style. The product weighs 38.5 grams, completely removes the display module, and returns to the pure AI perception and voice interaction route. Relying on a dual - chip architecture and a 12MP Sony sensor, it focuses on all - day wearing and 4K shooting, directly competing with Meta Ray - Ban in the overseas market.

Looking at it from an industry perspective, this is not just Rokid's story.

According to Omdia data, the global shipment volume of AI glasses in 2025 increased by 322% year - on - year, reaching 870,000 units. What's more notable is the change in the user structure. The purchasing population has expanded to a wider range of professional groups such as business people, civil servants, lawyers, and teachers.

When a type of hardware product gradually moves towards the general public, the real watershed for AI glasses begins to appear.

III. The Hundred - Glasses War

At this point, the story should have a happy ending. The ten - year ice age has passed. The general AI large model has filled in the long - missing practical scenarios for AR glasses. Leading players represented by Rokid have embarked on the capitalization path, and the business story of the next - generation human - machine interaction entrance has taken shape.

However, the real elimination round in the industry has just begun precisely at the moment when the industry's turning point arrives. The "hundred - glasses war" that sweeps across the world has officially begun.

Xiaomi has taken the first place in the domestic AI glasses shipment volume in 2025 with its ecological approach. According to the latest data from market research firm Counterpoint, in the domestic smart glasses shipment volume list in Q1 2026, Xiaomi ranked first with a 28% market share.

Huawei officially launched its Hongmeng AI glasses in April this year, relying on Hongmeng's cross - device collaboration capabilities to seize the business and mass - consumer markets. Alibaba has launched Qianwen AI glasses, deeply integrating with Alibaba's lifestyle service ecosystem. ByteDance has also planned to launch Doubao AI glasses.

Xu Wu, a partner at ZhenFund, believes that the domestic smart glasses industry has not yet emerged from the "brand - driven" stage. The main audience for glasses is the fans of the brand itself. People don't buy AI glasses because of some necessary functions but out of trust in the brand or because they are already users of the brand's ecosystem.

This is exactly the natural shortcoming of startups like Rokid. The giants have hundreds of millions of existing users, mature channels, and bargaining power in the supply chain. They can quickly replicate similar products and eliminate the first - mover advantage in technology. Rokid has long been deeply involved in technology and product development, and its public brand recognition and ecological barriers are still being built. Its first - mover advantage is being shortened.

More severe pressure comes from the more competitive overseas market.

According to the 2025 global AI glasses market report by Omdia, in terms of shipment volume, Meta has taken 85.2% of the global market share with its Ray - Ban series of smart glasses. The volume of a single brand exceeds the total sales of all Chinese smart glasses manufacturers going overseas.

Meanwhile, the start of the industry's capitalization wave has also exposed the real profit dilemma in the AI glasses track.

The prospectus of XREAL, a leading AR glasses brand, shows that its revenues from 2023 to 2025 were 390 million yuan, 394 million yuan, and 516 million yuan respectively. The gross profit margin increased from 18.8% to 35.2%, approaching the gross profit level of Apple's hardware business. However, it still had a net loss of 456 million yuan in 2025, and the cumulative loss in three years exceeded 2 billion yuan.

This means that at the current stage, even if the product revenue scale and gross profit margin improve simultaneously, the industry as a whole is still in an investment cycle of sacrificing profits for scale. Rokid has never announced any profit data, and whether it is profitable remains an open question. We believe that its profitability still depends on its scaling ability.

Zhu Mingming himself has made a clear plan for Rokid's sales target. The sales volume should exceed 1 million units in 2026, reach 2 - 3 million units in 2027, and exceed 10 million units in 2028.

In the consumer electronics industry, an annual shipment of 2 million units is usually regarded as the dividing line for standing firm in the mass - consumer market. This means that Rokid needs to convert the current short - term popularity into regular consumer demand in the next two years, rely on stable sales to reduce R & D and supply - chain costs, and transform from a niche product to a mass - market product.

Twelve years of patient waiting have allowed Rokid to get a ticket, but it has also entered a more competitive arena. In the future, Rokid needs to prove that a startup can become a company that can truly weather the cycles under the siege of giants.