The Other Side of Trip.com's International Expansion: Performance Volatility Amid Global Turbulence

On June 24th, Ctrip released its financial report for the first quarter of 2026. The net operating revenue reached 16.208 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%. Accommodation bookings were 6.51 billion yuan, transportation tickets were 6.05 billion yuan, tourism vacations were 1.13 billion yuan, and business travel management was 0.69 billion yuan. All business segments showed growth across the board. Bookings on the international platform increased by about 65% year-on-year, and inbound tourism bookings increased by about 90% year-on-year.

In addition, if the impact of equity incentives and fair value changes is excluded in the first quarter, Ctrip's non-GAAP net profit was 3.9 billion yuan, only a slight decrease compared with 4.2 billion yuan in the same period last year.

The data itself is not bad, but what caught the market's attention was Ctrip's rare guidance indicating that its Q2 performance would be under pressure. Ctrip expects the year-on-year growth rate of its net revenue in the second quarter to slow down significantly to 3% - 8%. Excluding the impact of the three-year pandemic, this may be the lowest single-quarter growth rate since Ctrip's listing.

Why is this once high-flying enterprise starting to face pressure in what seems to be a smooth tourism market? The answer lies in its internationalization.

The Other Side of International Expansion: Increasing Exposure

Ctrip's internationalization used to be its most certain growth story.

Throughout 2025, international business contributed about 40% of Ctrip Group's total revenue, up from 35% in 2024. This growth story continued into Q1 2026, with bookings on the international online travel platform increasing by about 65% year-on-year and inbound tourism bookings increasing by about 90% year-on-year. The growth momentum came from the extensive demand in major source markets such as the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the United States. In the first quarter, about 7 million inbound tourists were received, with an average stay of 5.1 days, a year-on-year increase of 11%. European and American tourists accounted for 25% of the total. More than 110,000 local partners connected with international demand through the Ctrip platform.

On the other side of the scale expansion, the exposure of performance to global macro variables is increasing simultaneously. For every 10 yuan Ctrip earns, 4 yuan is related to the overseas market. The more the revenue depends on cross - border flows, the more vulnerable it is to direct impacts from geopolitical conflicts, fluctuations in overseas consumer demand, and exchange rate changes. The higher the proportion of international business revenue, the greater the disturbance of external uncontrollable variables to the overall performance - this is the most direct measure of exposure.

Ctrip stated in its Q1 financial report that the Q2 guidance was mainly affected by "macro - unfavorable factors such as high energy prices and geopolitical fluctuations." A military conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran broke out at the end of February, and on March 3rd, Iran officially announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, the global aviation fuel price has soared from the previous $85 - $90 per barrel to over $150 per barrel. This price curve will ultimately be transmitted to the pricing of each outbound air ticket, then to the travel willingness of global tourists, and further to the booking data of each OTA platform.

This is also a problem that all multinational companies must face directly. The more the revenue depends on cross - border flows, the more likely the performance is to be magnified by changes in geopolitics and flight routes.

The More International, the More Pressure

In 2026, the OTA industry is experiencing a global demand contraction, and those players with the highest degree of internationalization are the most likely to feel the chill.

Booking Holdings presented a seemingly good report card in Q1 - 338 million room nights were booked, a year-on-year increase of about 6%, the total booking amount was $53.8 billion, and the revenue was about $5.5 billion. However, the management clearly stated at the earnings call that the conflict in the Middle East had dragged down the growth of room nights and total bookings in Q1 by about 2 percentage points, and new orders in March slowed down significantly.

The company assumes that the conflict will last at least until the end of June, and it is expected that the growth of room nights in Q2 will only be 2% - 4%, and the growth of total bookings, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA will also be only between 4% - 6%.

More importantly, some Wall Street analysts revised their expectation of Booking's adjusted EBITDA margin expansion in 2026 from about 50 basis points to only 0 - 25 basis points, which means admitting that geopolitical risks have eroded the originally planned efficiency improvement space.

Booking's CFO also reminded of a deeper - level risk: if the conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, it may further push up the price of aviation fuel, force airlines to reduce flights, and dampen tourists' confidence. "These secondary effects are currently difficult to reasonably quantify, so they are not included in the guidance." In other words, the existing guidance represents a "relatively optimistic scenario."

Expedia was also not spared. In Q1, its gross bookings were $35.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%, and its revenue was $3.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15%. However, the mid - point of the company's full - year revenue guidance was lower than analysts' expectations, and the market voted with its feet.

The caution of all international players resonates with Ctrip's Q2 guidance. The more international the players are, the more they have to face global storms. This is the common theme of the OTA industry in 2026, with no exception.

The Real Transmission of the Cross - Border Travel Chain

Ctrip's expectation of being under pressure in Q2 is essentially the result of the transmission mechanism of the entire cross - border travel chain. Understanding this logical chain can help us understand why a company with a decent fundamentals would voluntarily give an unimpressive guidance.

The starting point is energy prices. Since the conflict in the Middle East broke out at the end of February and the Strait of Hormuz was closed, the shipping route through which about 20% of the world's energy is transported has almost been cut off. The total fuel cost of the global aviation industry in 2026 is expected to reach $350 billion, a direct increase of nearly 40% compared with $252 billion in 2025, and the proportion of fuel cost in the total operating cost has risen from 25.4% to 31.4%. Willie Walsh, the director - general of IATA, said bluntly: "The 70% surge in aviation fuel prices is hitting the profitability of all airlines." Just last month, Spirit Airlines in the United States declared bankruptcy due to the inability to bear the soaring oil prices, becoming the first airline to collapse since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict.

When it comes to airlines, there are two coping paths. One is to raise prices. The fuel surcharge for long - haul flights departing from Hong Kong by Cathay Pacific once increased by more than 100%. Hong Kong Airlines, Air India, and Japan Airlines followed suit one after another, and many domestic airlines also intensively increased the fuel surcharge for international routes. The other is to cut capacity. United Airlines in the United States will cut about 5% of its capacity in the second and third quarters and suspend inefficient routes such as those to Tel Aviv and Dubai.

The increase in ticket prices and the contraction of flight routes are ultimately transmitted to the terminal travel demand. This is the complete logical chain of Ctrip's cross - border business being under pressure - from the shipping interruption in the Strait of Hormuz, to the sky - rocketing aviation fuel price, to the increase in airlines' surcharges and the reduction of capacity, then to the increase in the cost of outbound air tickets and the decrease in the options for long - haul international routes, and finally reflected in the booking data of the OTA platform.

Ctrip's Q2 guidance is just the natural outcome of this transmission chain on the financial side.

However, the foundation on the demand side has not collapsed. In the first quarter of this year, China's travel service exports reached 105.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.3%. The total travel expenditure of domestic residents was 1.86 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. The International Air Transport Association predicts that the number of global air passengers in 2026 will still increase by 2.4% to about 5.1 billion, exceeding the level in 2025. The basic demand for travel still exists, but it is only temporarily suppressed by price and route factors.

The short - term pressure is real, but the long - term logic has not been broken. Ctrip still holds real chips - the accumulation of inbound tourism infrastructure in the past two years is being transformed into incremental orders, and new categories such as small - group tours and performance tourism are creating value space beyond traditional group tours. When the short - term storms pass, the returns on these long - term investments will truly appear.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Phoenix Tech" , author: Dale. It is published by 36Kr with authorization.