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The largest IPO in history is about to be born: SpaceX goes public, rewriting the boundaries of technology companies.

美股研究社2026-03-10 07:47
When SpaceX goes public: A new narrative in the capital market may emerge

"Companies that truly change the world often don't compete within existing industries but redefine them."

This statement seems particularly apt and even carries a subversive power when Elon Musk is preparing to take SpaceX to the capital market.

According to the latest disclosed information, SpaceX has secretly submitted an IPO filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), with the target listing time set for June 2026. If everything goes smoothly, the valuation of this company will reach an astonishing $1.75 trillion.

What does this concept mean?

This not only means that SpaceX will become the largest IPO in human history but also means that it will directly surpass the $1.7 trillion listing record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019 and become the new king of the global capital market. By then, SpaceX will directly enter the core circle of the world's most valuable companies, standing side by side with Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA.

But what really catches investors' attention is not the scale of the IPO itself, nor the dizzying figure.

It's a bigger question represented by this company: the boundaries of technology companies are being redefined. When a rocket - building company starts to control the global Internet lifeline and when space infrastructure begins to integrate with artificial intelligence, the investment logic we are familiar with may be undergoing an unprecedented reconstruction.

From a Rocket Company to "Space Infrastructure": The Business Model Leap of SpaceX

In most people's impressions, SpaceX is still a rocket company. Its labels are the Falcon Heavy rocket, the Starship, and the Mars colonization plan.

But from the perspective of the capital market, this label is no longer accurate and can even be considered a misunderstanding.

Over the past decade, SpaceX's real strategy has never been just about launching rockets but about building a complete and closed - loop space infrastructure system. And the most core asset in this system is the Starlink satellite internet constellation.

As of the end of 2025, the number of active global users of Starlink has reached 9.2 million. There is huge commercial value hidden behind this number. More importantly, the user scale has doubled in 15 months, showing extremely strong growth momentum. This growth rate makes Starlink one of the fastest - growing communication networks in the world, far exceeding the historical performance of traditional telecom operators during the same period.

Revenue growth is also rapid. In 2025, Starlink's revenue has exceeded $10 billion, and the market expects it to reach over $24 billion in 2026. This means that Starlink is no longer a "by - product" of SpaceX but its real cash - flow engine.

Compared with traditional telecom companies, Starlink's advantage lies in the revolutionary nature of its underlying architecture. It doesn't rely on heavy - asset infrastructure such as ground base stations and fiber - optic laying but achieves global coverage through a low - orbit satellite network.

This means that SpaceX is actually building a new type of infrastructure - the global space Internet.

The commercial imagination brought by this model is huge. Traditional telecom operators are limited by geographical boundaries and laying costs, while Starlink can cover the ocean, deserts, polar regions, and the aviation field. Once this network continues to expand, SpaceX's business model will be more similar to a vertical platform that has both launch capabilities, a satellite network, and end - users.

It is no longer a hardware manufacturing company but a platform - type technology company with a physical network layer. This leap in the business model is the core logic supporting its $1.75 trillion valuation. The capital market is willing to pay a higher premium for "infrastructure" because it means a deeper moat and more stable cash flow.

Starlink + xAI: Musk is Building a New Technology Platform

There is a more important and more hidden reason why SpaceX's valuation has rapidly inflated to such an extent.

This company is no longer just a space communication enterprise. In a recent key transaction, SpaceX completed a full - stock acquisition of xAI. This means that Musk is integrating AI capabilities into the space infrastructure, and a new technology platform is taking shape.

The core product of xAI, the Grok AI chatbot, and its AI data center resources are becoming part of the SpaceX ecosystem. The logic behind this integration is very clear and even extremely forward - looking.

In the future digital infrastructure system, three types of resources will become increasingly important: network, computing power, and data.

Traditional technology companies usually only control one part of them. For example, cloud - computing companies control computing power, telecom operators control the network, and Internet platforms control data. This segmentation leads to efficiency losses and increased costs.

And SpaceX is trying to control all three at the same time:

The low - orbit satellite network provides global connectivity, solving the coverage problem of the "network".

The AI data center provides computing power, solving the processing problem of "intelligence".

The satellite system becomes the data collection and transmission node, solving the source problem of "data".

This makes SpaceX more like a new technology platform rather than a single - industry company. Imagine when satellites not only provide Internet services but also can directly perform edge AI computing in orbit or collect real - time Earth data for AI model training, its value will increase exponentially.

As Fortune magazine commented: Musk is redefining the boundaries of technology companies with SpaceX.

This integration of "space + AI" may create unprecedented application scenarios. From the global real - time update of autonomous driving to the immediate processing of disaster warnings and the seamless connection of the global Internet of Things, SpaceX is building an underlying operating system that fully integrates the physical world and the digital world. For investors, this is no longer an investment in a space company but an investment in the cornerstone of future digital civilization.

When SpaceX Goes Public: A New Narrative in the Capital Market May Be Born

If SpaceX successfully goes public with a valuation of $1.75 trillion, it will bring more than just an IPO record.

It may also change the capital market's imagination space for technology companies.

In the past two decades, the most influential technology companies have mainly been concentrated in two fields: Internet platforms and cloud - computing infrastructure. Whether it's Google, Meta, Amazon, or Microsoft, their battlefields are on the Earth's surface and in server rooms.

But the emergence of SpaceX may promote a third narrative: space infrastructure companies.

This type of company has the attributes of aerospace technology, communication networks, and digital platforms at the same time. Its valuation logic will no longer simply rely on the price - earnings ratio but on the orbital resources, spectrum resources, and network effects it occupies. This is a brand - new asset class for the global capital market.

And for investors, a more realistic question is: Who can participate in this asset earliest?

Musk has stated at Tesla's shareholders' meeting that he is studying a plan to allow Tesla shareholders to participate in SpaceX's IPO preferentially. If this mechanism is implemented, Tesla's stock may gain a new investment logic in the short term.

It is not just an electric vehicle company but may also become an indirect channel to access SpaceX.

This is why some investors are starting to re - evaluate the asset value of Tesla. In the capital market, scarcity itself is a source of premium. And before SpaceX officially goes public, the channels to access this asset are still very limited. Once the priority for Tesla shareholders is confirmed, Tesla's stock price may be re - evaluated because of this "option value".

This linkage effect may trigger a new wave of capital flow in the U.S. stock market. The sector rotation of technology stocks may no longer be based solely on performance but on the relevance of the ecosystem. SpaceX's listing will be a touchstone to test the market's faith in "hard technology".

Conclusion: The Next Trillion - Dollar Empire is Not in Silicon Valley but in Orbit

SpaceX's listing may not just be a financing event.

It is more like an industrial signal.

In the past few decades, human technological competition has mainly taken place on the Earth's surface: the Internet, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence. We are used to looking for the next giant in Silicon Valley and for growth points in software code.

And Musk's strategy is extending the competition to space infrastructure.

If this trend holds, SpaceX's IPO will not only create a new valuation record. It may open a new era of technology investment. In this era, the infrastructure of the physical world and the intelligent algorithms of the digital world will be deeply integrated, the boundaries will disappear, and the value will be reconstructed.

A question thus becomes more and more realistic:

When the space Internet and AI start to integrate, the next trillion - dollar company may not be born in the office buildings of Silicon Valley.

But in orbit.

For investors, in the face of such an upcoming behemoth, the most important thing is not to blindly chase high prices but to understand the paradigm shift behind it. When the tide surges towards space, only those who can understand the new orbit can seize the dividends of the next cycle. The bell of SpaceX is about to ring, announcing not only the maturity of a company but also the opening of a new frontier of human commercial civilization.

This article is from the WeChat official account "US Stock Research Society" (ID: meigushe). Author: US Stock Research Society. Republished by 36Kr with authorization.