Affordable phones may soon be out of reach.

Right after the Spring Festival, the topic of "China's mobile phone industry is about to see a comprehensive price increase" hit the top of the Weibo hot search list.

It is reported that all major domestic mobile phone brands have finalized their price increase plans, and some brands have issued price adjustment notices to channel partners and distributors. "The price adjustment of previously launched models has been relatively moderate, but for new products launched after March, the price increase will be significantly larger. The minimum increase will not be less than 1,000 yuan, and the increase for mid - to high - end flagship models may reach 2,000 to 3,000 yuan."

The root cause of the mobile phone price increase is the fierce price surge in the "super cycle" of memory. Affected by both the contraction of global storage chip production capacity and the explosion of AI terminal demand, data from TrendForce shows that in the first quarter of 2026, the contract price of general - purpose DRAM (operating memory) will increase by 55% to 60% quarter - on - quarter, and the price of NAND (flash memory) products will also rise by 33% to 38%. Among them, the quarterly increase in the contract price of client solid - state drives (cSSD) will be at least 40%.

According to data from Dramexchange under TrendForce, on June 26, 2025, the price of DDR4 16GB (1Gx16) 3200 was $12.8. As of February 27, 2026, the average spot price of this chip had reached $79.

The industry predicts that the upward trend of memory prices will continue until the second half of 2026 and is expected to gradually decline in 2027. IDC said that after the price surge, the cost proportion of memory semiconductors in smartphones has soared from the previous 10% - 15% to over 20% recently. This has also brought about fundamental changes in the pricing and procurement systems of mobile phone manufacturers.

A person in the mobile phone industry revealed to China Entrepreneur that memory manufacturers now have extremely high bargaining power and have adopted a "virtual pricing" method. Mobile phone manufacturers can obtain goods without first agreeing on the selling price. The settlement will be based on the market price of memory at the actual sales time of the mobile phones. However, faced with a market plagued by shortages, mobile phone manufacturers have no choice but to accept this passively.

Zhong Xiaolei, an analyst at Omdia, revealed that the memory price increase has eroded most of the profit margins of mid - range models. "Previously, memory procurement was negotiated once a year, but now it has become once a month at the shortest." This has put mobile phone manufacturers, already in a highly competitive environment, in a cost crisis.

Although the price increase is a foregone conclusion, a person in the industry told China Entrepreneur that the statement of "a collective price increase of at least 1,000 yuan" is more of a means of expectation management by mobile phone manufacturers.

"No manufacturer will directly announce a price increase. Instead, they will release price increase news to let consumers gradually accept the fact, avoiding a situation like Xiaomi's K90 last year, which triggered resistance due to an overly aggressive price increase." The actual increase may be lower than the rumor. "The price increase for mid - to low - end models may be between 300 and 500 yuan, and high - end models may see a slight increase or maintain the original price. In the end, if everyone raises prices, it's equivalent to no relative increase, and consumers will find it easier to accept."

Another person in the industry revealed that some manufacturers are reducing the planning of mid - to low - end models. "When storage was cheap from 2023 to 2024, a lot of demand for mobile phone replacement was released. In 2026, manufacturers lack confidence in the mid - range market, and many planned models have been canceled."

Memory More Expensive Than Gold

Affected by fluctuations in the supply chain, during this year's Spring Festival, the promotional atmosphere in the mobile phone market has cooled significantly compared with previous years. Except for Huawei, which is still running promotional activities, other major domestic manufacturers such as Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, and Honor have not launched strong Spring Festival promotions as they did in previous years.

A consumer who is considering buying a mobile phone told China Entrepreneur that mid - range models, which used to have price cuts of up to 1,000 yuan in previous years, can only enjoy a subsidy of 300 to 500 yuan at most this year. Some popular models even require full - payment reservation.

Huawei is seizing the opportunity to gain market share. The Pura 80 Pro, released in mid - 2025 with an original price of 6,499 yuan, had an official direct price cut of 1,500 yuan at offline stores during the Spring Festival. After the national subsidy, the final price was 4,499 yuan, 2,000 yuan lower than the original price. For the foldable Mate X6 series, after various discounts, the maximum price reduction can reach 4,000 yuan. However, currently, the models with relatively large discounts from Huawei are all older models such as the Pura 80, Mate 70, and Mate X6. New models released in the second half of 2025 basically only enjoy the national subsidy and have no other discounts.

Similarly, Apple is also striving to maintain its high - end market share. Although the Spring Festival discount this year has been weakened, the iPhone Air and iPhone 16 series, which have relatively mediocre sales, still launched discount activities, while the latest iPhone 17 series has no discounts.

Behind the differentiated promotions, the mobile phone memory, known as "electronic gold", is breaking through the pricing defense line of mobile phones with an unexpected price increase. It has become an industry consensus that "mid - range phones are the most affected."

Hou Lin, the chief analyst of consumer electronics at Omdia, said that in the highly competitive mid - range models, the memory configuration was previously no different from that of flagship models. Low - end models are under more direct pressure. The original 4 - 6GB of operating memory has no room for reduction, and memory accounts for more than 40% of their BOM (bill of materials) cost. Once the price increases, the "cost - performance" advantage will disappear.

Zhong Xiaolei also pointed out that "mobile phones in the price range of 3,000 to 4,000 yuan generally adopted a configuration of 16GB (memory) + 512GB (flash memory) or even '24GB + 1024GB' when memory was cheap in the past two years. Now, such an aggressive configuration is completely unprofitable."

In the current domestic mid - range market of 300 to 500 US dollars (about 2,100 to 3,500 yuan), Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo each account for about 20% of the market share, Huawei accounts for about 6%, Honor accounts for about 4%, and Apple does not enter this price range.

In contrast, high - end models have stronger risk - resistance capabilities. Zhong Xiaolei explained that for flagship models with a price of over 8,000 yuan, the memory cost accounts for only 10% - 15%. Manufacturers can absorb the price increase pressure by releasing part of their gross profit. "For example, Honor's flagship models still adhere to the top - level configuration of 24GB + 1TB because the high - end market has enough profit margin to digest the cost increase."

In this context, Huawei and Apple have shown stronger pressure - resistance capabilities. With its self - developed SoC chips and full - link independent R & D capabilities, Huawei has significantly better cost - control capabilities than its peers. More importantly, domestic storage chip suppliers such as YMTC and CXMT have always given preferential supply to Huawei. 'Now, many manufacturers are facing not only price increases but also the situation of 'having money but not being able to get the goods', but for Huawei, it is still relatively easy to get the goods.' Zhong Xiaolei said.

In addition, Huawei is fully promoting the construction of the native HarmonyOS ecosystem. The strategic goal of equipping mid - range models such as the Nova series with the HarmonyOS is also to increase the installation volume. Therefore, Huawei is willing to sacrifice profits to continue to increase its market share through preferential strategies.

In this wave of memory price increases, Apple has become one of the biggest beneficiaries. Hou Lin revealed that before the price increase of memory chips, Apple signed a long - term supply agreement with its core NAND flash memory supplier, Kioxia of Japan. Although the price in the new agreement signed between Apple and Kioxia recently has doubled compared with the previous one, its purchase price is still relatively low.

In addition, Apple's price system is more stable. "Apple has always adopted a memory - tiered pricing model, while Android manufacturers previously mostly had top - level memory configurations. Now, when they need to reduce the configuration, consumers may have a worse perception." This has also made some consumers who were originally considering mid - range Android phones start to turn to buying older models such as the iPhone 15 Pro or even the iPhone 14 Pro.

Reducing Configuration, Transforming, and Managing Consumer Expectations

Facing the pressure of memory costs, "selectively reducing specifications and configurations" has become a common coping strategy in the mobile phone industry. Market rumors suggest that mid - range new models in 2026 will gradually bid farewell to the 12GB memory version and return to the mainstream 8GB configuration. Some manufacturers are even considering launching a 6GB version.

However, analysts believe that the return of the 6GB memory is not very realistic. "Now, edge - side AI is an industry trend. It is difficult to run relevant functions smoothly without 8GB of memory. Even Apple's basic models have adopted 8GB of memory. Android manufacturers cannot offer a lower memory configuration than Apple in the price range above 3,000 yuan."

Hou Lin also said that 6GB of memory will have a great impact on the consumer experience. "Ordinary users may not feel the difference when using 3 - 4 background apps in daily use, but when running large - scale games or handling multiple tasks, the problem of frequent restarts will be very prominent."

In contrast, the return of 8GB of memory is a more reasonable compromise. For ordinary consumers, the experience difference between 8GB and 12GB is not obvious. "8GB of memory is completely sufficient for basic functions such as using WeChat, listening to music, and watching videos. Moreover, the current software restart speed is very fast, and a short wait will not affect the user experience." Hou Lin said.

Zhong Xiaolei added that some manufacturers have secretly adjusted their configurations. "Many models in the price range of 3,000 to 4,000 yuan this year will be reduced from last year's 16GB + 512GB to 12GB + 256GB, or even 8GB + 256GB."

In addition to configuration adjustments, the product strategy of mid - range models is also shifting from the all - around "well - rounded phone" to the scenario - based product with "single - point breakthrough". The price increase of mobile phone panels and batteries is much lower than that of memory. By strengthening these configurations that are not affected by the price increase, manufacturers can avoid the storage shortcoming and control the total cost.

For example, Honor's Power series focuses on large - capacity battery life, OPPO's Reno series and vivo's S series focus on imaging functions, while OnePlus, iQOO, and Redmi Turbo series focus on gaming performance. This differentiated transformation has become an important means for manufacturers to cope with cost pressure. "Previously, all mid - range phones were 'well - rounded phones', and it was difficult for consumers to remember them. Now, when it comes to photography, people think of OPPO and vivo, and when it comes to gaming, people think of iQOO. This 'mental occupation' is more effective than simply piling up configurations." Hou Lin said.

Compressing marketing and channel costs was also considered a way to maintain the price stability of mid - range models, but there have been many obstacles in actual operation. Zhong Xiaolei revealed that "manufacturers did think about reducing channel rebates, but the channels reacted very strongly. After the rebates were reduced, distributors were reluctant to purchase goods, which actually affected sales more."

In this situation, manufacturers can only choose a combination of "streamlining products + compressing their own marketing costs". Some models save costs by reducing advertising and offline promotion activities.

Although mid - range models are already under heavy pressure, manufacturers still strive to follow the industry logic of "ensuring the success of new models". Hou Lin said that "the peak sales of mobile phones usually occur in the first two weeks after launch. Manufacturers must rely on launching new models to maintain sales volume. Moreover, the rhythm of releasing mid - range models every six months has been established, and they have to stick to it even if the profit declines."

Regarding the price system of high - end models, consumers are still expecting last year's price cut of Huawei's Mate 80 to become a reference for the industry. However, a person in the industry said that "Huawei cut the price of the Mate 80 because the pricing of the Mate 70 was too high and was criticized by distributors, and Huawei had enough gross profit margin to support the price cut. However, it is difficult to replicate this situation in this year's cost environment. High - end models are unlikely to cut prices. Instead, they may maintain high prices to make up for the profit losses of mid - to low - end models."

Pattern Remodeling: Breaking Through in the High - End Market and Camp Differentiation

Facing price increases and domestic competition pressure, some voices suggest that Chinese mobile phone manufacturers can look for growth in overseas markets. However, in fact, under the background of memory price increases, the challenges in overseas markets far exceed those in the domestic market.

In the domestic market, manufacturers can still use the profits from high - end flagships to cover part of the decline in gross profit caused by mid - to low - end models. However, overseas, the main market for Chinese manufacturers is the low - end market below $200.

"The average price of mobile phones in these markets is low, and memory accounts for more than 40% of the BOM cost. Now, it is impossible to cover the cost, so the price has to be increased, but distributors do not agree, and the two sides are in a stalemate." A person in the industry revealed.

Take Transsion, the leader in the African market, as an example. The price of its main models is around $100. Due to the memory price increase and inflation pressure, it has to largely switch to domestic memory chips as a substitute. At the same time, by optimizing the system, it can make 4GB of memory perform close to 6GB. It has also cut non - essential functions and only retained core functions such as multi - SIM cards, high - volume speakers, and deep - skin photography to withstand the cost pressure. Even so, in 2025, Transsion's net profit still declined by 53.43%.

Domestic mobile phone brands face different difficulties when going overseas. For example, Xiaomi performs more stably in the high - end European market but is severely affected in the mid - to low - end markets in India and Southeast Asia. Although Honor has room for growth in the market, due to its relatively small scale, its bargaining power in the supply chain is weak, and the problem of tight supply is prominent.

The overseas channel models of OPPO and vivo have exacerbated the difficulties. Distributors have greater bargaining power, and the contradictions caused by price increases are more acute. "Now, the core task of OPPO and vivo is to appease agents to avoid channel loss due to price increases."

To cope with the crisis, overseas manufacturers generally adopt long - term installment payment models, such as "24 - month low - interest" and "installment cashback". In essence, they are using financial means to pre - consume consumers' purchasing power to get through the memory price increase cycle. "Now, when the price is increasing, the goods are sold through installments. When the memory price drops in 2027, the cost can be re - balanced." Zhong Xiaolei said.

However, this financial risk - avoidance method is difficult to replicate in the domestic market. "Domestic regulations are stricter, and cooperation with qualified financial institutions is required. These institutions are very concerned about the risk of long - term installment payment fund recovery. Even with national subsidy interest, their willingness is not high."