Wu Shichun: One-third of unicorns are already dead. Don't invest in "unicorn pigs", but chase "unicorn tigers".

What big opportunities await in 2026, a year of extreme contrasts? Wu Shichun, the founding partner of Plum Ventures, has offered his insights.

1. In all areas of the Sino-US technological competition lies the fundamental logic for venture capital.

2. The four "intersections" present the least conflict and the greatest opportunities.

The intersection of AI and industries, the intersection of cutting - edge technology and practical applications, the intersection of supply chains and overseas expansion, and the intersection of technology and traditional industries.

3. "Unicorn pigs" have no chance, while "unicorn tigers" do.

"Unicorn pigs" are overvalued, lack self - sustaining capabilities, and rely solely on capital infusion. "Unicorn tigers" are profitable with healthy margins. Even "unicorns" are not entirely safe. More than one - third of the unicorns on the Forbes list have eventually failed.

4. Don't rely solely on IPOs for exits. Mergers and acquisitions also offer good opportunities.

Investors should learn to be "matchmakers" and help their invested companies find potential acquirers.

5. When discovering a promising sector, learn to "cultivate a fishpond".

Learn to make an all - industry - chain layout. Once the sector takes off, you'll reap not just one fish but the entire harvest of the fishpond.

01 2026: A Year of Contrasts, Time to Switch the Playing Field

2026 will be a year full of contradictions yet brimming with opportunities.

On one hand, the secondary market seems to be heating up, and the exit environment appears to be improving. On the other hand, when I talk to many entrepreneurs, especially founders in traditional industries, they are still confused and find it extremely difficult to raise funds.

The current market situation is like "one side is water, the other side is fire".

Money and attention are almost all flowing towards popular sectors such as commercial space, AI, and semiconductors. In my view, 2026 is a "Sino - US intersection point", and the technological competition between the two countries has become the fundamental logic behind all investment and entrepreneurship.

Therefore, my advice is straightforward: We must abandon all illusions about the old dividends and resolutely shift towards the technological direction indicated by the country's 15th Five - Year Plan.

The opportunities are there, and so is the big money.

In the past, many of us investors liked to "bet on IPOs", hoping that companies would go public and make a fortune overnight. However, the reality is harsh: The A - share market can only accommodate about a hundred or so IPOs a year, and the Hong Kong stock market around two hundred, which is far from enough.

So, "mergers and acquisitions" have become the keyword today.

It's a practical fact that investment without an exit is meaningless. I myself have also spent a lot of effort on mergers and acquisitions. For example, OMG was sold to JNBY in 2024, and I promoted the merger of "Zhaoliangji" and "Zhuanzhuan" in 2020.

For us early - stage investors, we need to learn to be "matchmakers". Help the companies you've invested in find suitable acquirers at the right time and achieve a smooth "landing".

Although the valuation in mergers and acquisitions may not be as eye - catching, the cycle is short, and the capital can be recovered quickly, which is more in line with the life cycle of current funds. This is much more realistic than waiting indefinitely for an IPO.

02 Farewell to the Overweight "Unicorn Pigs", Seek Profits in the Depths of Industries

I've always emphasized internally that what we're looking for are "unicorn tigers", not "unicorns", let alone "unicorn pigs".

What are "unicorn pigs"? They are companies with inflated valuations but no self - sustaining capabilities, relying entirely on rounds of financing for "blood transfusion", and eventually collapsing due to their bloated state. The fact that more than one - third of the unicorns on the Forbes list have failed is a warning for us.

And what are "unicorn tigers"? They are the number - one players in niche industries, profitable with healthy margins, having the confidence for sustainable development, and a clear exit path. Investment should return to its essence: invest in companies that can "dominate their territory" and have real competitiveness.

But where are the opportunities? Specifically, where should we look? I've summarized them into four "intersections", where there is the least conflict and the greatest opportunities:

First, the intersection of AI and industries. Stop competing in the field of large - scale models. Dive deep into a specific industry (such as cement or textile) and use AI to solve their most pressing problems, and you'll become an expert.

Second, the intersection of supply chains and overseas expansion. Take China's mature supply - chain capabilities overseas to make money. Compete for scale in the domestic market and earn profits overseas.

Third, the intersection of "cutting - edge" and "down - to - earth". Either engage in "cutting - edge" fields like chips and aerospace, or go all the way down to the county - town markets for "down - to - earth" business. Don't get stuck in the middle; it's the most uncomfortable position.

Fourth, the intersection of technology and traditional industries: In industries considered "traditional", use hard technology to rejuvenate them, such as transforming agriculture and the chemical industry with new technologies.

Additionally, we must have an "AI belief" - believe in AI, use AI, innovate with AI, and invest in AI.

It's now like 2011 in the era of mobile Internet. The foundation has been mostly laid, and an explosion of applications is about to come.

However, entrepreneurs should be smart. Stay away from the main battlefields of large companies and dig deep into your vertical scenarios; that's where your industry barriers lie.

03 Investment Rules: Cultivate the Fishpond, Do the Math, and Rely on Mental Strength

In the past, we used to "fish" everywhere with single - point bets. Now, I prefer to "cultivate a fishpond", or rather, make "chain - style investments" to layout the entire ecosystem of a sector.

For example, since we're optimistic about commercial space, we've made a layout along the entire industrial chain. From rockets (Galactic Energy), satellites (Micro and Nano Stars), to data applications (Yunyao Aerospace), communication (Xingyi Lianxin), and even the future "space computing power" (CAS Space Computing).

In this way, once the sector takes off, I'll reap not just one fish but the entire harvest of the fishpond. In 2026, I believe this "fishpond" will be commercial space.

Entrepreneurship is a challenging journey. I'd like to share four "survival rules" I've summarized after experiencing setbacks:

First, invest with an exit in mind: From day one, figure out who your customers are and how you'll eventually exit.

Second, start rough: Don't wait for a perfect plan. Just start and make adjustments during the iteration process.

Third, find the right people, raise funds, and define the direction: The founder must take full control of these three things.

Fourth, your value formula: Your value = You - Competitors - Replacement cost. Don't start if there's no incremental value.

Fifth, mental strength is the ultimate barrier: In the end, it's not about IQ but mental strength and resilience.

Sixth, Fail fast: Test with low costs, verify quickly, and adjust promptly.

Seventh, shed the "sunk cost": Admit your mistakes, cut losses bravely, and start over.

We're at a crossroads of an era. The old order is collapsing, and a new one is emerging. There is, of course, chaos and pain in between, but also the greatest opportunities for the next decade.

However, I firmly believe that China will experience a long - term "science and innovation bull market". For all of us, the key lies in three things: seeing the trends clearly, returning to the essence, and maintaining mental strength.

It requires us to change our mindset completely: from chasing trends to delving into value; from fantasizing about getting rich overnight to learning to accumulate small victories into big ones.

Make money through new - age means and preserve it with a solid foundation. Courageously invest the money earned and the experience accumulated in the old era into the "hard - core technology" that represents the future. This is the fundamental way to weather the cycles and preserve wealth.

The road will surely be tough, but those who persevere will reach their destination. I look forward to meeting you all at the peak in the brand - new 2026.

Thank you all.

This article is from the WeChat official account “Pencil News” (ID: pencilnews), author: Honest. It is published by 36Kr with authorization.