How does a big year for animated films come into being?
Author | Song Wanxin
Editor | Zhang Fan
This year, the Chinese film market has presented a very interesting phenomenon - all the blockbusters are animated films. It is truly a great year for animation.
From "Ne Zha 2" at the beginning of the year to the currently popular "Zootopia 2", and then to "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle Arc". If it weren't for macro - factors, based on the pre - sale results, it would also be a candidate for a blockbuster this year.
The box office and word - of - mouth of these three films have almost exploded. The overall film market has been continuously sluggish. The total box office last year decreased by 22.7% year - on - year, and the box office during multiple holiday periods has returned to the level of a decade ago. Against this background, the popularity of these three animated films has emerged out of nowhere.
"Zootopia 2" had a box office of 228 million yuan on its opening day, which is the highest opening - day box office for imported animated films in the Chinese mainland. And just three days after its release, its box office had already exceeded that of its prequel nine years ago, becoming the champion of the imported animated film box office in the Chinese mainland.
After the pandemic, both the supply and demand sides of the film market have changed. This change can be summarized as the industry starting to pursue "certainty". The popularity of these three animated films is a result of "certainty" as an operating rule of the industry.
01 The Victory of Sequels
36Kr checked the data from Dengta and found that as of now this year, among the top ten films in terms of box office, 6 are IP sequels, and 5 are domestic. Among them, "The Little Monster from Langlang Mountain" is a film version based on an existing animated TV series, which can also be regarded as having an IP foundation.
(Source: Dengta Data)
The trend of serialized films ranking high in the box office was already emerging last year. Among the top ten films in terms of box office last year, 5 were sequels, and 4 were domestic.
If we look back at the Chinese film market in the past decade, the serialized works among the top ten films in terms of annual box office were basically dominated by live - action series from Hollywood giants such as Marvel.
What is particularly special this year is that among the 6 sequel films, 4 are animated films, namely "Ne Zha: Reborn in the Demon Sea", "Zootopia 2", "The Little Monster from Langlang Mountain" and "Boonie Bears: Back to the Future". This indicator has reached the highest level in recent years.
Coupled with "Demon Slayer" which has a high reputation, the animated IP sequels have been proven to have an extremely wide audience base this year.
Serialized films are a more industrialized way of creation, which has been proven in Hollywood. But in China, film and television companies mainly operate on a project - by - project basis. There is a lack of content companies that make long - term investments in a certain IP, resulting in a rather bumpy and unsystematic exploration of serialized films, including live - action films.
Domestic film directors generally have a low willingness to shoot sequels. It wasn't until around 2015 when commercial - minded directors such as Chen Sicheng emerged that some well - known serialized films were produced, such as the "Ex - Files" series, the "Detective Chinatown" series, and the "The Wandering Earth" series.
The advantages of sequels are obvious. From the supply side, in terms of investment, on the basis of a successful prequel that has been verified by the market, the probability of the distributor creating a blockbuster is greatly increased, and the certainty is greater than that of new content.
In terms of screenings, new works in a series with an audience base will also get more screenings from cinemas. Take "The Life of Langlang" and "Ex - Files 4" as examples. Both are films released during the National Day holiday, both are comedies, both have well - known actors, and their Douban ratings are similar. However, Dengta data shows that the screening percentage of "Ex - Files 4" is significantly higher than that of "The Life of Langlang".
(Data Source: Dengta Data)
This pursuit of certainty has been increasing in recent years. After all, online traffic is getting more and more expensive. Promoting a film from scratch is naturally not as good as a serialized work that has an advantage at the starting line.
The annual report of Damai Entertainment (formerly Alibaba Pictures) as of March this year shows that the gross profit of its film business has sharply decreased to 73.21 million yuan, compared with 810 million yuan in the same period of the previous year, a decrease of 91%. In the first half of this year, the gross profit of this part further decreased by 22%, reaching 95.2 million yuan. That is, the gross profit margin is only 8.9%, while the industry average gross profit margin of film distribution companies is between 20% and 50%.
It can be seen that the cost of film promotion and distribution is getting higher and higher, and the cost - effectiveness of "betting on blockbusters" is getting lower and lower.
Among serialized films, animated serialized films have a stronger IP attribute than live - action serialized films and are more convenient for industrial chain operation, becoming the choice with the strongest certainty.
Compared with general film audiences, the fan audiences who follow a certain IP are special. Their movie - watching consumption is highly targeted and they have high loyalty. Therefore, the retention rate for a specific IP is very high, and a few years' interval will not affect their consumption enthusiasm.
This is basically consistent with the second - dimension circle culture in Japan, and Hollywood calls such films "fan films".
"Zootopia 2" is a typical example. Actually, the box - office performance of "Zootopia" in the Chinese mainland nine years ago was not outstanding, only 1.5 billion yuan. In contrast, "Ne Zha: Birth of the Demon Child" in 2019 had a box office of 5 billion yuan.
But in the past nine years, the popularity of "Zootopia" has not only remained undiminished but has also been successfully enhanced through IP operations in theme parks and other aspects, magnifying the IP effect.
Since its simultaneous release in North America, the cumulative box office of this film in the Chinese mainland has far exceeded that in the North American market, making it the largest box - office market for this film globally.
02 Animated Films Can't Revive the Overall Market
The audience profile of "Zootopia 2" shows a very different side. Dengta data shows that the 20 - 29 - year - old group accounts for half of the audience of this film, with the 25 - 29 - year - olds being the largest subgroup. On the overall market, the proportion of 20 - 29 - year - old audiences has decreased by 10 percentage points compared with last year, accounting for only 34% of the overall market. The audience of this film goes against the trend of the overall market.
That is to say, at least this year, young people under 30 are no longer interested in watching movies in general but are purely chasing IPs.
This involves a major trend in the profile of film audiences after the pandemic - the audience is getting older. In other words, only a certain group of people have the habit of watching movies, and as they get older, the profile of the overall market also ages.
Dengta data shows that as of October 17 this year, among film audiences, the proportion of the 35 - 39 - year - old group has increased by 5 percentage points, accounting for 20%, and the proportion of audiences aged 40 and above has increased by 6 percentage points, accounting for 23%, becoming the largest age group.
(Source: Dengta Data)
Against the background of the change in the film audience, this year, the wave of movie - watching for "Ne Zha 2" and "Zootopia 2" has jointly created a spectacle in the film industry: the top - tier works keep hitting new highs, but the periodic overall film market keeps hitting new lows. For example, the box office during this year's May Day holiday was less than half of last year's, and the National Day holiday box office has returned to the level of a decade ago.
In essence, the popularity of animated films this year does not mean the recovery of the movie - watching habit but only represents the boom of the IP economy.
Dengta data shows that the average number of movie - watching times per person this year has decreased to 2.02, the lowest in three years. More than 60% of the audiences have only watched one movie this year, the highest in three years.
03 Live - Action Films Decline, Animated Films Rise
As mentioned above, the domestic film market once had a brief glorious moment for live - action serialized films, such as the multi - sequel series like "Detective Chinatown" and "Ex - Files", and the series like "Fengshen" and "The Wandering Earth" that have only reached the second installment.
But in recent years, live - action serialized films have shown a downward trend.
On the one hand, many serialized works are commercially successful but not well - received critically. "Detective Chinatown 1900", which ranks second in box office this year with 3.6 billion yuan, only has a Douban rating of 6.4. In 2021, the third installment created a situation where the box office was 4.5 billion yuan but the rating was only 5.3. "Fengshen 2", which ranks eighth in box office this year, has also seen its Douban rating drop from 7.7 in the first installment to 5.8.
On the other hand, past successful cases have not attracted more creations of live - action serialized films. 36Kr roughly checked the top 100 films in terms of annual box office and found that in the three years from 2023 to now, the only new domestic live - action serialized film IP is the "Fengshen" series.
The decline of live - action serialized films is a global phenomenon. The live - action film industries in both China and the United States have experienced varying degrees of decline in recent years, and the money - making ability of Hollywood - style series films such as those from Marvel has significantly decreased.
On the supply side, as the popularity of IPs rises, the growth rate of actors' salaries has far exceeded the growth rate of box office. Compared with the first Marvel movie, by "Avengers: Endgame", the salary of Robert Downey Jr. as "Iron Man" had increased by 150 times, while the box office had only increased by 5 times.
In terms of cost comparison alone, the gap between live - action films and animated films is not large. The production cost of most Marvel movies is about 1.4 billion yuan, while the cost of most animated films is about 1 billion yuan. Moreover, the production cycle of live - action films is short, while that of animated films is long.
But in terms of monetization, live - action films obviously do not have as high a cost - effectiveness as animated films. Audiences no longer blindly believe in well - known directors and actors, and the space for IP development is also smaller.
Against this background, animated films have become a common risk - avoidance choice for the industry.
Three Marvel movies launched by Disney this year have all encountered difficulties in making profits. After that, Disney frankly stated its goal of winning back the Chinese market with "Zootopia 2". And Enlight Media also recently said that it will allocate more IP resources to animated films.
The decline of live - action films, the prevalence of IPs, and the risk - avoidance of sequels have given rise to this great year for animated films, which may be a turning point in the future development of the film market.
Follow for more information