People in Guangdong have made Lexus the most prestigious Japanese car of the year.

Although 2025 isn't over yet, it shouldn't be a big problem for Lexus to achieve a year-on-year positive growth in annual sales. Looking at the imported luxury car market, it's very likely the only one to do so.

Data shows that Lexus's terminal sales volume from January to November this year was about 167,000 vehicles, while the sales volume in the same caliber for the whole year of 2024 was about 178,000 vehicles. Against the backdrop of a year - end sales rush, this Japanese luxury brand is expected to sell between 180,000 and 190,000 vehicles this year.

Even BBA would envy such performance.

If we want to know how Lexus can withstand the impact of the rise of new energy vehicles in China, the people of Guangdong are the key. Take November as an example. According to the analysis of YuanAuto, out of Lexus's monthly sales volume of 13,748 vehicles, 4,071 were from Guangdong, accounting for about 29.6%. Even if we extend the time frame to nearly a year (from December 2024 to November 2025), Guangdong contributed about 49,000 vehicles to Lexus's cumulative terminal sales volume of about 183,000 vehicles, accounting for more than 26.8%.

It's worth mentioning that besides the two first - tier cities of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, Dongguan and Foshan are also the cities where Lexus sells best in the country. The regional monthly sales volume often exceeds that of Shanghai and Beijing.

"As long as it's a Lexus"

At the 2025 Guangzhou International Automobile Exhibition in late November, YuanAuto was deeply impressed by the number of people at the Lexus booth.

It was an ordinary weekday afternoon. The Lexus booth, from the million - level LS and LM to the relatively affordable ES and NX, was crowded with people. It was a strong candidate for the hottest booth in the exhibition hall at that time. The reason, on the one hand, is the attractive price, but more importantly, it's the local consumers' love for this Japanese luxury brand.

"Now there are also discounts on the ES. You can get it on the road for less than 250,000 yuan. You can still negotiate the specific price."

At the Guangzhou Auto Show, a staff member at the Lexus booth told YuanAuto that the discounts on best - selling models such as the ES, NX, and RX are not only available during the auto show. But as the end of the year approaches, both the manufacturer and the dealers are rushing to meet their sales targets, so there is indeed a chance to negotiate a better price. "Taking the ES as an example, if you place an order during the auto show, you can get a comprehensive discount of 80,000 yuan."

If a luxury sedan with a starting guide price of 299,900 yuan has a discount of 80,000 yuan, it's equivalent to about a 27% discount. In fact, this is nothing in the current luxury car market. For reference, the Cadillac CT5, which is in the same class as the Lexus ES, is currently on sale starting at 199,900 yuan, and the online quote from dealers for the BMW 3 Series, with a starting guide price of 319,900 yuan, starts at 212,000 yuan.

However, in the eyes of the people of Guangdong, Lexus's 80,000 - yuan discount is different from others. Because the people of Guangdong are used to paying a premium to buy a Lexus.

On December 23, YuanAuto learned from several Lexus owners around that they all had the experience of paying a premium of tens of thousands of yuan when buying a car. One owner of a Lexus RX in Foshan who bought the car in 2019 said that the dealer gave him two options at that time: First, pay a premium of 20,000 yuan and wait for the new car in transit; second, pay a premium of 60,000 yuan and pick up the available car.

To a certain extent, the premium market has established Lexus's unique position in the eyes of the people of Guangdong. This is not only compared with other second - tier luxury brands. Even in front of BBA, many people in Guangdong prefer Lexus.

Because of this preference, Lexus was fearless in the era of fuel - powered cars. And what many people in Guangdong "couldn't get" has become "reachable with a little effort" as China's new energy vehicle price war rages on. This is not only reflected in new car sales but also in the used - car market of Lexus.

"No one really buys the 400,000 - yuan - level Lexus electric car (RZ) at the original price, but now the used one is only 150,000 or 160,000 yuan. Who wouldn't be tempted? Now as long as there is such a car, I'll boldly buy it, as many as there are."

On December 23, Mr. Chen, a senior used - car dealer in Guangzhou, told YuanAuto that the Lexus RZ is the easiest used - car model he has ever made money from this year, without a doubt. "At this price, customers don't have any requirements for the range or configuration. As long as it hasn't been in a major accident, as long as it's a Lexus."

Two major variables for the "toughest Japanese brand"

For Lexus, 2025 in China has been smooth sailing, and it hasn't faced many market challenges. However, starting from 2026, this Japanese luxury brand will gradually face key junctures.

According to Lexus's official announcement at the 2025 Guangzhou International Automobile Exhibition, the all - new generation ES will be officially launched in April 2026. As the absolute main model that accounts for more than 60% of the brand's sales volume, the replacement of the ES cannot afford to fail.

However, since the all - new generation ES made its domestic debut at the Shanghai Auto Show this year, there has been no shortage of disappointed voices in the market regarding this new car.

"Lexus is finished. What on earth is this thing they've brought out?"

"To be honest, I've been looking at this car all morning and still can't quite figure it out..."

"The all - new Lexus ES is released. After waiting for so long, it's a big disappointment. It looks like it's wearing a shrimp line, and the splicing is very obvious."

During the Shanghai Auto Show, although there were also many voices praising the all - new generation ES, there were obviously more people who didn't understand the new car, especially its design.

In addition to the design, the hardware specifications of the all - new generation ES have also attracted ridicule.

It is reported that the all - new generation Lexus ES will have pure - electric models for the first time, divided into two models, the ES350e and the ES500e, according to different configurations. Among them, the entry - level ES350e has a motor power of 165kW and an acceleration time of 8.9 seconds from 0 to 100km/h, which is a little slower than the GAC Aion S, known as the "king of ride - hailing cars".

Although Lexus has never been known for its power and performance, in the era of new energy, power is the least valuable. It's understandable that the all - new generation ES, as a luxury car in the 300,000 - yuan range, is criticized in this aspect.

Some people may say that most consumers who buy Lexus will still choose the more conservative hybrid models. So as long as the all - new generation ES continues to launch hybrid versions.

But it should be noted that Lexus has placed a heavy bet on the pure - electric field in China.

In June this year, the first phase of Lexus's wholly - owned factory in Jinshan, Shanghai, officially started construction. According to the plan, the factory will be completed in August 2026 and put into production in 2027, with an annual production capacity of 100,000 vehicles. The new cars produced will be sold in the Chinese market and surrounding overseas markets.

Although there are reports that the models to be produced at the Lexus Shanghai factory are not the pure - electric version of the all - new generation ES, if the car fails to sell well after its launch, it will inevitably bring great trouble to the subsequent domestic production of Lexus's pure - electric models.

Facing these two major variables of pure - electrification and domestic production, Lexus can no longer rely on the people of Guangdong.

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This article is from the WeChat official account "Yuan Media Hub". Author: Pan Zhuolun. Republished by 36Kr with permission.