Is the future of Japanese automotive electrification really dependent on China?

The biennial Japan Mobility Show (formerly the Tokyo Motor Show) opened today (October 29). As global automotive companies and groups are rapidly moving towards the era of electrification, the Tokyo Motor Show has become a "scoreboard" for the three major Japanese automotive giants - Toyota, Honda, and Nissan - to showcase their responses to the electrification transformation.

Compared with the previous two shows, where Japanese automakers only presented concepts or showed a half - hearted attitude towards electrification, this time, in the face of the well - established technological shift in the global automotive industry, Japanese automakers have finally taken more targeted transformation actions: Toyota's electrification efforts are flourishing across all its brands, Honda is focusing on its vision for small electric vehicles, and Nissan is betting on models developed in cooperation with Chinese partners to make up for its weaknesses.

Different from the increasing number of Chinese automakers and brands participating in major international auto shows in Europe such as the Frankfurt and Geneva Motor Shows, the Tokyo Motor Show has always been regarded as a stage for Japanese cars. Its relatively closed nature and conservative market have made it rare for Chinese brands to challenge it in the past. It wasn't until the previous Tokyo Motor Show that BYD broke through this barrier single - handedly.

This year, BYD, participating in the show for the second consecutive year, is bringing its pure - electric K - CAR specifically designed for the Japanese market, directly targeting the Japanese market. ZEEKR, a brand under Geely, is bringing the ZEEKR 009 with the intention of entering the stronghold of the high - end MPV Alphard, thus starting to explore this unknown market. More and more Chinese faces, technologies, and products are entering the Japanese market independently or through penetration, adding more Chinese elements to what was originally one of the world's top five auto shows.

With the rapid construction of Lexus' wholly - owned factory in Shanghai, the joint - ventures of Toyota, Nissan, etc. in China are starting to fully embrace Chinese technologies. On the electrification and intelligentization track, Chinese manufacturing and the industrial chain are becoming more deeply integrated with the Japanese automotive industry. So, will China really become the leader in Japan's electrification?

01

Dilemma and Long - Overdue Efforts

At least in the Chinese market and in the eyes of more and more Chinese consumers, with Suzuki, Mitsubishi, and Infiniti successively withdrawing, Japanese cars are losing their edge.

Behind this decline is a sharp contrast in data. According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on the market share of Japanese cars in China from 2012 to the first half of 2025, the market share of Japanese cars was relatively stable before 2018. From 2019 to 2021, their market share reached a historical peak.

However, after that, Japanese cars suffered a major setback. Their market share dropped directly from the highest 24.1% to 10.8% in the first half of 2025, less than half of their peak level. In sharp contrast, the market share of Chinese independent brands soared from less than 40% to 61% in 2024 and exceeded 65% in the first half of 2025. The sales volume of BYD alone (4.25 million vehicles in 2024) has already exceeded the total sales volume of Japanese cars in China.

Behind the decline in market share is the comprehensive loss of Japanese cars in the Chinese segmented markets. In the sedan segment, the starting price of Nissan Sylphy at the terminal has dropped from 140,000 yuan to 60,000 yuan, becoming the last line of defense for Japanese sedans in China. The sales volume of classic models such as Toyota Corolla and Honda Civic has declined by more than 30% year - on - year and they have long been out of the list of popular sedans, with their sales moving further away from the 10,000 - unit mark. Even in the booming SUV segment, only a few models such as Toyota RAV4, Honda CR - V, and Toyota Highlander are struggling to hold on.

The reasons for the setback of Japanese cars in China are closely related to the rapid rise of Chinese new - energy brands and the slow transformation of Japanese cars in the new - energy field. Brands such as BYD, Geely, Changan, and new - energy startups have made technological breakthroughs in the fields of pure - electric and plug - in hybrid (such as DM - i hybrid technology and 800V high - voltage platforms), comprehensively replacing Japanese fuel - powered cars with "high cost - performance + intelligentization". The proportion of new - energy vehicles among most leading brands is approaching more than half of the market share.

In 2024, the proportion of new - energy vehicles among Japanese cars was still less than 2%, completely missing the window period for new - energy transformation. Coupled with the fact that young consumers value "intelligentization and technological sense" more, and Japanese cars significantly lag behind Chinese brands in areas such as in - car systems and intelligent driving, they have further lost market share. The brand influence and user popularity of Japanese cars are no longer what they used to be.

As the world's largest segmented market, China's market performance actually has a huge impact on Japanese cars globally. In addition to changes in sales volume and market share, the strategic transformation of electrification is plaguing every former "giant".

Even in the global market, although Toyota plans to increase its global production to 10 million vehicles in 2025, the dilemma of "increasing revenue but not profit" is becoming more and more prominent. In the fiscal quarter from April to June 2025, Honda's operating profit decreased by 49.6% year - on - year, and its net profit was halved. Nissan has been in the red for four consecutive quarters, with a net loss of 115.7 billion yen in the current quarter. It has to launch a "streamlining plan" to lay off 20,000 employees by the fiscal year 2027 and reduce the number of its global factories to 10.

Undoubtedly, the increasingly brutal market situation has made Japanese automakers gradually feel the pain, and the pace of electrification transformation has become more urgent.

As an important indicator of the global automotive industry, the three major Japanese automakers at this year's show have all made electrification the core of their displays. Toyota has brought a full range of electrified products across all its brands at once, including both pure - electric and hybrid versions of the successor to the Corolla, the all - new Lexus ES sedan, and a six - wheeled electric LS van concept car. There is even a new coupe concept car from the ultra - luxury brand Century, fully demonstrating its ambition in electrification layout.

Honda is focusing on the pure - electric track, showcasing the third model of its new - generation 0 - series electric vehicles and a prototype of a compact electric vehicle that emphasizes miniaturization and easy handling, conveying its understanding of urban electric mobility.

Under the "Re:Nissan" strategy, Nissan has launched the all - new Elgrand equipped with the third - generation e - POWER technology, premiered an upgraded version of the Ariya pure - electric crossover, and also displayed global electric models such as the third - generation Leaf, the Europe - exclusive Micra, and the N6/N7 developed in cooperation with the Chinese market, trying to break out of the business dilemma with mass - produced products.

Judging from the results, Japanese automakers have finally shaken off their previous hesitation about pure - electric vehicles and started to fully bet on electrification. However, compared with the technological iteration speed of Chinese automakers, their efforts are more like "catching up on missed lessons". The proportion of Toyota's global pure - electric models is still less than 2%, Honda's mass - production pace of pure - electric vehicles lags behind Chinese brands, and Nissan's solid - state battery technology won't be mass - produced until 2028. There is still a gap between their transformation speed and market expectations.

02

Electrification: A Forced Choice

In fact, Japanese automakers were not absent from the electrification wave; instead, they were among the earliest explorers. From the invention of lithium - battery technology to the launch of the Toyota Prius in 1997 as the world's first mass - produced hybrid passenger car, its THS hybrid system pioneered the industry. The second - generation model became a benchmark for hybrids with sales of over one million. The Nissan Leaf, first launched in 2009, was an early mature pure - electric model that entered the European and American markets as early as 2010. Its lithium - battery pack and dual - charging mode were advanced at that time.

However, Japanese cars ultimately missed the golden decade of the pure - electric explosion, mainly due to the constraints of their path choices.

On the one hand, the energy structure determines the development direction of the automotive industry. As a country highly dependent on energy imports, Japan's energy security is fragile. Moreover, if Japan were to fully develop electrification, it would mean a significant increase in its import dependence on key battery minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel, bringing greater supply - chain risks.

From the perspective of the most basic usage cost for consumers, Japan's small - car culture has led to very low overall fuel consumption, with the cost per 100 kilometers reduced to less than 40 yuan. However, Japan, which relies heavily on thermal power generation, has relatively high domestic electricity prices. After conversion, the cost difference between electric vehicles and traditional fuel - powered vehicles is not significant in the Japanese market, especially in the relatively high - priced electric - vehicle market.

Toyota Motor Chairman Akio Toyoda also previously stated that due to Japan's heavy reliance on thermal power generation, electric vehicles can hardly show their low - carbon advantages either in production or in daily charging. Therefore, the "fuel - saving advantage" of hybrid models has become the focus of policy support. In addition, the lack of infrastructure such as charging piles and the inconvenience of energy replenishment have made consumers prefer more convenient and energy - efficient hybrid models.

Moreover, after a century of development, Japan's traditional fuel - powered automotive industry has formed a huge industrial - chain system. If Japan were to make a major shift to electric vehicles, the existing internal - combustion - engine industrial chain would face drastic adjustments or even disintegration, which could lead to large - scale layoffs and the collapse of parts manufacturers in the supply chain, ultimately bringing huge risks to Japan's employment market and social and economic development.

Transformation is already a burden. Akio Toyoda has repeatedly emphasized that if electrification is promoted too aggressively, the automotive industry may lose 5.5 million jobs by 2030, a loss that Japanese society can hardly bear.

In terms of consumer preferences, relatively conservative Japanese people have a low acceptance of electric vehicles. Previous data showed that only 14% of Japanese consumers were willing to buy electric vehicles. In addition, some Japanese media often emphasize the potential risks of battery safety when reporting on electric vehicles, which has to some extent amplified Japanese people's anxiety about electric - vehicle technology.

This path dependence based on the domestic market and policy guidance have made giants such as Toyota and Honda bet on hybrid technology for a long time. Even in the face of the global pure - electric wave, they have been slow to make a large - scale shift, and have finally been preempted by Tesla and Chinese brands. Honda even clearly stated in 2025 that it would "slow down electrification while accelerating hybridization", and this strategic wavering has further widened the gap with the global mainstream.

03

What Role Will China Play?

The century - long development history of the automotive industry is essentially a competition of technological routes and industrial ecosystems, and the balance of the times always tilts towards those who follow the trend.

From the Ford assembly line that initiated the era of industrial mass - production of automobiles, to the Toyota Production System that reshaped industry efficiency with "lean manufacturing", and then to German cars that swept the world with their luxury quality and technological heritage, a leader emerged in each era. When Tesla disrupted the pattern of traditional automakers with pure - electric technology, Chinese automakers seized the key window of industrial transformation and, in line with China's national conditions, embarked on a dual - axis leading path of "pure - electric + plug - in hybrid/extended - range".

Today, China is not only the world's largest new - energy vehicle market but also has the most complete industrial - chain ecosystem. In the first half of 2025, the retail sales volume of Chinese independent brands increased by 25.7% year - on - year, with a market share as high as 64%. In the field of intelligentization, the intelligent - driving solutions and Hongmeng cockpits of companies such as Huawei and Momenta have become the objects of cooperation sought after by foreign automakers. Ecarx even provides intelligent - cockpit solutions for Volkswagen's global models, achieving a reverse output from "bringing in" to "going out".

This comprehensive industrial advantage is not only the result of continuous innovation by Chinese automakers but also the advantage of the Chinese government leading the industrial development direction. It is also an inevitable result of technological iteration and market selection in the global automotive industry. For Chinese cars to lead in the new era, they must subvert the rules of the automotive industry established by German and Japanese brands and think from the perspectives of technology and the industrial chain.

On the one hand, subversion can be achieved through technological innovation. Therefore, China has launched a vigorous new - energy technology movement. Whether it is the so - called "refrigerator, color TV, big sofa" features or more difficult technologies such as three - electric systems, intelligent chassis technology, and even future AI technologies in intelligent cockpits and intelligent driving, Chinese traditional automakers, new - energy startups, and IT companies have all entered the market, expanding the market and the pie.

On the other hand, it can be achieved through economies of scale