From traditional exports to the global expansion of new energy vehicles, a new round of overseas battles for Chinese commercial vehicles
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Going global is becoming one of the definite directions for the layout of new energy commercial vehicles.
With the relatively weak domestic commercial vehicle market, commercial vehicle exports remain active. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2024, the domestic sales volume of commercial vehicles was 2.969 million, a year-on-year decrease of 9%; the export volume of commercial vehicles was 904,000, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%. Among them, new energy commercial vehicles are also gradually occupying territory in the global market. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to May, the export volume of new energy commercial vehicles was 41,000, a year-on-year increase of 2.3 times.
From the extensive export model mainly targeting emerging markets to continuously raising standards and entering developed countries with higher regulatory requirements, the export of commercial vehicles has also gone through years of development. In the current wave of carbon neutrality and electrification, new energy commercial vehicles are also making multiple leaps in products and models for the overseas market.
The new energy passenger vehicle market has become a red ocean, but the commercial vehicle market is still in the exploration stage, and the market pattern has not yet been solidified. In terms of product forms, commercial vehicles can be broadly divided into trucks, buses, special vehicles, etc., and there are multiple category subdivisions according to usage, scenarios, load capacity, etc. The state of "nothing is settled" from products to the market provides an opportunity window for traditional automakers and new players to coexist and progress together.
Therefore, in this wave of going global, there are not only the continuous efforts of traditional vehicle manufacturers such as BYD, Jianghuai, SAIC, Chery, and Geely, but also many new players fighting on two fronts. For example, in the heavy truck field, there are Deepway, Weidu Technology, Subao Technology, etc. The financing in this track has also been very active in the past two years.
In high-frequency usage scenarios of commercial vehicles such as urban distribution, trunk logistics, and park transportation, factors such as adaptability, efficiency, and cost are more critical, and there are also higher requirements for product reliability and operation and maintenance services. These are also some of the challenges that new energy commercial vehicles need to solve at present.
How do players enter this emerging global market? What are the characteristics of demand and thresholds from emerging markets to mature markets?
Shenzhen Gecko New Energy Automobile Technology Co., Ltd. provides an observation sample. Gecko Automobile is a new energy commercial vehicle company centered on advanced digital chassis. It provides forward-developed chassis and commercial vehicle products for global automotive industry OEMs and automotive operators. Its founder, Liu Jiangfeng, once served as the president of Honor. It is understood that Gecko Automobile has completed three rounds of financing, and its shareholders include CATL, ALT, Di Shang Tie, and Shenzhen Investment Holdings.
Liu Jiangfeng once said in a media interview that "the goal of Gecko Automobile is that in the future, overseas revenue should account for more than half." Zhu Shijun, the vice president of Gecko Automobile, started to explore the overseas commercial vehicle market in 2012. He once served as the general manager of SAIC Commercial Vehicle in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Europe and is currently responsible for the overseas business development of Gecko Automobile. From the perspective of an experienced veteran in the automotive global market and a pioneer of new players, he talked with 36Kr Going Global about the overseas market of new energy commercial vehicles.
The following is the content of the interview, which has been edited without changing the original meaning.
36Kr Going Global: You started to work on the global market of commercial vehicles in 2012. What has the development process been like in the past decade?
Zhu Shijun: Since 2012, I have been in the commercial vehicle sector of SAIC. In the early stage, I was mainly responsible for the markets in North Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. After 2016, I focused on European business and served as the general manager of the European company. I left my previous company in 2023 and joined Gecko Automobile in 2024, responsible for international business development.
Early on, people's understanding of commercial vehicles was that they were production tools. More than a decade ago, as the domestic emission standards were raised, some old models gradually withdrew from the market. Enterprises sought overseas markets to solve the problem of overcapacity, and many automakers sold vehicles to underdeveloped regions such as the Middle East and Africa through exports. Starting from 2012/2013, many enterprises also entered Latin American countries such as Chile, Brazil, and Mexico.
By 2015/2016, as the domestic emission standards were upgraded to National V, Chinese commercial vehicles further entered markets with higher regulatory requirements, such as Australia, New Zealand, and Europe. Now commercial vehicles basically cover the world, and the main markets are Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Australia and New Zealand.
36Kr Going Global: What is Gecko's main global market model at present?
Zhu Shijun: At present, our main model is complete vehicle exports. Complete vehicle exports are more efficient, but some countries do not allow direct imports of complete vehicles and have high requirements for tariffs and local assembly. We will also conduct Completely Knocked Down (CKD) assembly with local partners.
In terms of models, the international business of automobiles initially started with exports, and once the goods arrived at the port, there was no further follow - up. As the business develops, it is necessary to deal with dealers, establish direct connections with customers, and understand customer needs.
Gecko Automobile currently uses several models. We will also combine the advantages of the domestic supply chain and technology to develop competitive products according to market demand. We also plan to send people to the Netherlands for on - site development work. For large customers such as DHL, we need to develop products specifically for the vehicle body volume and configuration they require. For our new brand, we need to provide not only very good products but also better after - sales maintenance. After all, this is still a product of the production tool type.
Currently, Gecko Automobile's main market is Europe. The market size of light commercial vehicles in Europe is estimated to be 4 million. We focused on the European market at the initial stage of product definition, aiming to achieve a market share of about 5%.
36Kr Going Global: What are the driving forces for the growth of the new energy commercial vehicle market in Europe? What are the economic advantages compared with traditional fuel vehicles?
Zhu Shijun: At present, there are no obvious advantages. For example, a fuel - powered vehicle costs about 30,000 euros and may even have discounts, while an electric vehicle may be priced at 50,000 euros, and even after a discount, it is still more expensive than a fuel - powered vehicle. In addition, the electricity price in Europe is higher than that in China, so the usage cost may not necessarily be lower.
Currently, the penetration rate is mainly driven by external policies: the government has ESG requirements for large logistics companies such as DHL; low - emission zones have been set up in large and medium - sized cities (such as the Ultra Low Emission Zone in London). If fuel - powered vehicles are used, fines will be imposed, which promotes enterprises to switch to electric vehicles.
To change the current situation, there must be breakthroughs in the products themselves. More specifically, in Europe, commercial vehicles over 3.5 tons require a truck driver's license, so the most obvious impact of electric vehicles on commercial vehicles is the increase in weight. Originally, a 3.5 - ton vehicle could carry 1.5 tons of goods, but after using batteries, it may only be able to carry 1 ton. If the products can make qualitative breakthroughs, with the price, range, and load capacity similar to those of fuel - powered vehicles, the external environment will also change significantly.
36Kr Going Global: What is the customer type composition of new energy light commercial vehicles in Europe?
Zhu Shijun: About 70% of the customers are small and medium - sized enterprises. In the British way of saying, it's BBC - bakers, butchers, construction teams, etc. They may only purchase five or six vehicles for daily operations; the remaining 20% - 30% are large customers, such as national postal companies, DHL, DPD, etc.
For the logistics industry, our core scenario is urban distribution, especially the last - mile delivery, which can be divided into two types of scenarios: one is normal - temperature distribution, with shelves installed in the vehicle, mainly transporting light and bulky goods such as postal parcels; the other is cold - chain distribution. We have developed a chassis suitable for refrigerated vehicles and optimized the charging solution, which is an important niche market for us.
When exploring the market, we prioritize large customers. Although their proportion is small, they are highly concentrated, and the demonstration effect of these customers is stronger, which is conducive to enhancing brand influence.
36Kr Going Global: What are the differences in sales channels or models when developing small and medium - sized customers and large customers in Europe?
Zhu Shijun: Participating in exhibitions is one way. We will participate in large - scale European commercial vehicle exhibitions such as the Hanover Motor Show. In addition, more importantly, we need to communicate one - on - one with large customers to dig deep into their needs. For example, many of DHL's vehicles are outsourced for operation, so we will also contact these third - party companies.
In the To C aspect, since the penetration rate of new energy light commercial vehicles in Europe is less than 10%, it is actually difficult to do a good job in marketing to C - end customers. However, we are also expanding our dealer network. As the infrastructure is gradually improved, the penetration rate is expected to increase.
36Kr Going Global: Compared with European local brands and traditional automakers going global, what are the ecological niche and competitive advantages of new players in the European market?
Zhu Shijun: All major European brands are making electric vehicles, but many are based on the transformation of fuel - powered vehicles, with high prices and weak performance; Chinese commercial vehicle brands under SAIC, Geely, etc. are also going global.
But the real competition is not about seizing the existing 10% market share but about how to encourage more users to switch to electric vehicles. We focus on the adaptability of products to users and how the business model can be closer to customer needs.
After communicating with overseas customers, SAIC, Chery, Geely, etc. are all Chinese automakers to them, but they don't have a more specific perception of the stories behind them. Everyone is on the same starting line in brand competition. What we need to do is to make good products and express the product advantages. For our new brand, the competition in the domestic market is more difficult than that in the overseas market. If we can do better in product and support, we can achieve breakthroughs.
36Kr Going Global: After Europe, why did you choose to explore the Latin American market? Why did you choose Chile as the first stop?
Zhu Shijun: The Latin American market is essentially an extension of the European market, and the vehicle model selection is similar to that in Europe. We first entered Chile and established cooperation with a local dealer. Chile is a relatively developed country in South America, with strong policy support for electric logistics vehicles. However, the annual registration volume of electric commercial vehicles in the entire Chilean market is only about 200. We signed an agreement a year ago and introduced the EV48 model. Currently, we have completed test drives and tests for many large enterprises, obtained many sales leads, and have the hope of occupying a certain market share.
Currently, we are also dynamically observing Argentina and Brazil. In Argentina, we need to wait and see the sustainability of the policies; Brazil has set high local thresholds, such as requiring local shareholding, and the investment is relatively large. Many manufacturers have suffered setbacks in this regard. Currently, in the commercial vehicle field, there are not many that have truly taken root and set up factories.
36Kr Going Global: From a global perspective, in addition to Europe and Latin America, which other regions are new energy commercial vehicle markets worthy of attention?
Zhu Shijun: We mainly focus on regions with similar market demands to Europe. One is South America, especially countries centered around Chile; the second is Australia and New Zealand. These markets are in line with British regulations in terms of regulations, and the product adaptability is relatively high; the third is Russia. Although the market potential is large, there is currently a high degree of geopolitical uncertainty. As for North America, the current regulations, policies, and competitive landscape are too complex, so it is not our priority for the time being.
36Kr Going Global: New energy heavy trucks are also an important category of commercial vehicles. What challenges do you observe for this type of vehicle?
Zhu Shijun: The EU is also continuously introducing support policies for new energy heavy trucks, such as canceling the road tolls for zero - emission heavy vehicles.
However, from the perspective of actual product characteristics, there are still some problems with the electrification of heavy trucks: the weight of the battery reduces the load - carrying capacity; the long - distance trunk scenario has extremely high requirements for the range, so solutions to the product weaknesses or battery - swapping solutions need to be considered; electric heavy trucks are expensive, and the TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) is not advantageous; if the EU also imposes tariffs on commercial vehicles in the future, the competition may become even more difficult.
Compared with the general recognition in the passenger vehicle field that range - extended electric vehicles are an effective and short - term transitional solution, there is no consensus in the new energy commercial vehicle industry yet. In the future, there may be a co - existence pattern of multiple power forms, including fuel, electricity, hybrid, and bio - fuel.
36Kr Going Global: Looking back on years of experience in the automotive global market, what are the "pitfalls" that enterprises are likely to fall into?
Zhu Shijun: One is market perception. When I first started working on the European market, the electrification rate of light commercial vehicles was 0%. It is a very arduous process to continuously explore and educate customers from 0% to 10%.
The second is the challenge of market regulations and policies. Different countries have different emission standards, access systems, and carbon emission controls. For example, in 2016, Chinese commercial vehicles met the National IV standard, but Europe had already reached Euro V and soon upgraded to Euro VI. At that time, the products developed with great effort may not have had much competitive advantage. After entering the market, enterprises also need to deal with the EU's detailed management of carbon emissions. At that time, the carbon emission of each vehicle had to be less than 200 grams per kilometer. If it exceeded the standard by more than 1 gram, a fine of 95 euros would be imposed. This requires enterprises to thoroughly study the regulatory system. They cannot just sell vehicles but also manage them after sales to match carbon emissions. There are also requirements for battery recycling now.
Third, the competitive environment. Although Chinese brands have started quickly, they also face the problem of being "besieged" by European local brands. For example, customers set technical parameters before tendering, which exactly match a local brand, leaving little competition opportunity for foreign brands. The "small circle" formed by decades of cooperation poses great resistance to outsiders.
Text | Shi Yi@36Kr Going Global
Editor | Jason@36Kr Going Global
Image | Gecko Automobile official website
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