AI Robots "Breaking Through" 2025: Evolution, Symbiosis and Commercialization
Do you still remember the scene in the movie Prometheus when the android David, with his clear blue eyes, looked at Dr. Elizabeth Shaw? After exploring the Engineers' home planet with his master, this loyal and brave android has a smart brain and his own thoughts...
The origin of life and religious philosophy are just plot elements in the movie. The interaction between humans and robots also has traces in reality.
"3, 2, 1 ——"
As the countdown sounded, a robotic arm quickly located a rope - unveiling device with a radius of about 4mm and precisely started working for humans.
This was a scene that took place in a shopping mall in Beijing during the 618 promotion. Before the ribbons of the promotional gift packages had drifted away, 26 humanoid robots from 23 brands became the focus. Some with round heads swayed from side to side, like sleepy little bears; some stretched out their flexible robotic arms and clumsily handed balloons to passing children; others blinked their glowing "eyelashes" and circled around in the crowd to "say hello".
Even the old man busy comparing prices couldn't help but stop and poke the belly of the robot that could say "Welcome". These "new species" that have stepped out of the silver screen are being favored by humans with their "cuteness".
During this year's Spring Festival Gala, Unitree's H1 robot danced the yangge, bringing these "big figures" that are a bit dull yet a bit clever into the view of hundreds of millions of families. And robots with self - awareness are starting to question the boundaries of commercialization. What kind of contradictory tools are they exactly?
01 Evolution: From TV to Reality
Looking back, the in - depth integration of humanoid robots in technology and application scenarios has not happened overnight. David, the android in the science - fiction classic Alien: Covenant a few years ago, is a robot that has moved from the laboratory to reality. In the movie, David is a professional scientist and an angel protecting the protagonist, and occasionally has his own "little thoughts and secrets".
Therefore, it is necessary to clarify a product concept here. Today's humanoid robots are no longer the same as the previous ones.
Early on, the public's understanding of robots largely remained at simple "intelligent floor - sweeping robots", "food - delivery robots", or "guidance robots" in bank lobbies.
However, AI has given birth to a new form of embodied intelligent tools. With the perfect combination of algorithms, machine learning, and humanoid skeletal mechanical devices, intelligent humanoid robots that can mimic human forms and movement abilities, perceive the environment, and have certain autonomous decision - making and interaction capabilities have emerged.
Put simply, they have become smarter, and thus, they have started to take on "arduous" and "strenuous" jobs everywhere.
From an industry perspective, the birth and commercialization of this new species bear deep imprints of the era and industrial background. The driving force behind this wave is the multiple effects of the coordinated efforts of policies, capital, and the industrial chain.
Especially in 2023, after the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's Guiding Opinions on the Innovative Development of Humanoid Robots clearly set the goal of mass production by 2025, local governments quickly followed up. For example, Beijing, Shenzhen and other places have set up special funds. Shenzhen has even more ambitiously planned to cultivate "20 enterprises with revenues exceeding 1 billion yuan and 50 application scenarios worth 1 billion yuan".
Driven by policies, the cost of humanoid robots has dropped precipitously. Currently, the localization rate of core components has exceeded 65%, and the overall cost of the robots has decreased by 30% in three years. The most obvious example is that Unitree's high - end model H1 is priced at 650,000 yuan, while its G1 model, targeting a wider market, has been priced down to 99,000 yuan and was sold out as soon as it was launched.
Subsequently, the industrial chain is also maturing rapidly. According to the global top 100 humanoid robot industrial chain list released by Morgan Stanley, Chinese enterprises occupy an astonishing 37 spots. More than half of the components of Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot come from Chinese suppliers.
On the other side of the accelerating commercialization, this new species is quietly penetrating into every corner of human life and work.
Nancy, who has been engaged in machine learning research for many years, has witnessed this new transformation firsthand.
"A few years ago, I didn't realize that robots would integrate into life, study, and work so frequently like they do now. It wasn't until I saw a robot in the movie that looked exactly like a human standing in front of me, and even racing with humans in a marathon."
In his view, the arrival of humanoid robots is a definite event. Looking deeper, this new species has penetrated into all aspects of human social life.
In the industrial field, tasks with high standardization and strong repetition often become their "first stop". Among them, Ubtech's Walker S1 is a common sight in BYD's factories, moving materials. Yuanzhi's robots have started to enter the 3C electronics production line, testing more delicate assembly work, and are silently learning the 1001st action data like an "apprentice", aiming to assemble a part steadily. Unitree's nuclear power inspection robot has compressed the original two - hour manual inspection to 10 minutes.
Of course, in the field of household services, robots are also everywhere. Hunan's "Xiangjiang No. 1" can play simple melodies, help the elderly stand up, and conduct basic health monitoring. In just three months, the degree of freedom of action of Leju's "Kuafu" robot has increased from over 28 to over 40, precisely executing daily instructions such as watering flowers and hanging out the laundry, showing a strong sense of life...
This co - existence with the new species has long gone beyond the surface logic of industrial production iteration. It is not only a life partner that penetrates into the daily fabric but also a spiritual connection carrying emotional comfort. It is reconstructing the way humans interact with technology in both the dimensions of efficiency and warmth.
02 Co - existence: From Strangeness to Acceptance
Academic research has pointed out that "Compared with the past cold and mechanical impression, AI based on large - language models now has more anthropomorphic characteristics. Their responses can convey emotions, bringing a warm and human - centered interaction experience."
It is not difficult to see that the bright side of humanoid robots is inspiring. Therefore, the industrial circle is pursuing the development of humanoid robots with extreme efficiency. In 2024 alone, the financing amount around embodied AI exceeded 10 billion yuan. Tech giants such as Huawei and BYD have entered the field across industries, and Honor's robot announced at the end of May can run at a maximum speed of 4m/s.
The entry of players has accelerated the growth of the industry scale. According to the Research and Forecast Report on the Analysis and Development Prospect of the Chinese Humanoid Robot Industry from 2025 to 2030 released by CRI, the scale of the Chinese humanoid robot industry in 2024 was about 2.76 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 53.33%. It is predicted that the scale of the Chinese humanoid robot industry will reach 5.3 billion yuan in 2025 and 38.7 billion yuan in 2028.
The expansion of the scale means the acceleration of application. The application scope of the above - mentioned humanoid robots in life and work will be further expanded. Conversely, it will also change the public's traditional view of AI. But at the same time, an important question arises: If AI has different personality traits like humans, how will people respond to and accept this AI with personality?
Every coin has two sides. While humanoid robots bring hope, they also cast a long shadow. The most direct question is whether humans can truly "co - exist" with them?
Some scholars have pointed out that when people interact with AI at a relatively long psychological distance, they often feel distrustful and even reject it. This phenomenon was particularly obvious when AI technology first entered the market. Many users were still in a state of "strangeness" towards AI and found it difficult to trust its decisions and actions.
For example, can a robotic tool used to take care of the elderly or infants at home really be efficient, emotionally intelligent, caring enough, and most importantly, safe and able to meet people's needs? There is actually no answer yet.
The challenge posed to the industrial chain is that when humanoid robots with AI technology have more anthropomorphic characteristics in interaction, the psychological distance between humans and robots will be shortened, making users have greater trust and a closer relationship with AI. Only by shortening the psychological distance can the user's acceptance of the AI system be further enhanced, prompting them to continue using these technologies in the future.
On a social level, a report from Goldman Sachs once warned that by 2035, humanoid robots may replace up to 250 million jobs globally, with manufacturing workers being the first to be affected. Although enterprises often emphasize that "workers will shift to higher - value robot scheduling and maintenance positions", the pain during the transformation process and the unemployment risk caused by skill mismatch are always unavoidable realities. Therefore, in the eyes of some industry insiders, "The tool itself may be neutral, but the system using it must have a stance." has become a frequent voice.
It is true that the development of humanoid robots is irresistible. However, what we should think about more is how to get along with them, but there aren't many answers to this question yet. One thing is for sure, they need to be more like "humans" — a simulated intelligent agent that can self - correct and respond flexibly.
03 Commercialization: From 0 to Over 10,000
If humanoid robots can provide emotional value, they will probably be as popular as Pop Mart. This means they are starting to understand our little thoughts. In the process of commercialization, the effective integration between humans and humanoid robots will be a continuous event in the future. Currently, the most pressing issue to be solved is the problem of large - scale mass production faced by the industry.
What we really need are these humanoid robots that can work effectively, right? In other words, the market enthusiasm is like a tide, rising and falling. Some early - stage robot companies that attracted attention with their cool demos are now facing the cold reality.
For example, it is estimated that the national production of humanoid robots will exceed 10,000 units in 2025. However, Zhu Xiaohu, a well - known investor from GSR Ventures, poured cold water on the situation in time: "Being able to do somersaults doesn't mean being able to make money!" Some early - stage projects with unclear commercialization paths have encountered the embarrassing situation of capital withdrawal.
This situation is even more serious in terms of scenario mismatch. For example, a startup company ambitiously launched a warehousing and handling robot, but due to a failure rate of up to 30% in actual operation, it eventually faced large - scale returns from customers.
For ordinary people, the fact that "robots can't be rented out" has become an unspoken pain in the industry. Facing the price tag of up to 100,000 yuan, users' complaints are straightforward and realistic: "Spend 100,000 yuan on a machine that can only make the bed? It's more practical to hire a nanny!" This cold water serves as a reminder to industry players that there is still a long way to go between a flashy demo and a commercial product that can truly meet real needs and create value.
Although humanoid robots are being chased by the capital boom, the key to breaking the deadlock actually lies in technological innovation. Wang Xingxing, the founder of Unitree, believes that "Cost reduction mainly depends on design, and mass production requires a dedicated large - scale model" has become an industry consensus. Through algorithm optimization, structural innovation, and the development of a dedicated lightweight robot large - scale model, significantly reducing the dependence on expensive general large - scale models and ultra - high computing power and compressing the failure rate to below 1% is the only way to achieve large - scale commercial use.
The answer is clear. We don't just want any robots; we need smarter ones. Only when the performance crosses the threshold can truly smart robots emerge.
The next step for embodied intelligence is to achieve large - scale application in the industrial field and form industrial value.
It's the same as the new energy vehicle industry. Only when the gross profit per vehicle reaches a reasonable and healthy level can an enterprise survive. Moreover, it still needs to maintain its advantages in technological innovation and functional experience. In the long run, this is also the direction that humanoid robot manufacturers need to strive for. The ending of the humanoid robot story will be jointly written by the industrial circle and the general public.
In the world's first humanoid robot half - marathon in April this year, 1 hour and 38 minutes after the first human athlete crossed the finish line, Tianggong 1.2max became the first robot in history to cross the marathon finish line.
"I was also at the scene that day. The robots are so cute. Although they had many problems, every new thing has a process of growth. After all, in a way, this is part of the future," Vicky said thoughtfully.
Maybe when we look back at this race several years later, it may be given new meaning, shining with the light of the future.
You see, that's how business works.
This article is from the WeChat public account "Tide Business Review", author: Donald. It is published by 36Kr with permission.