The United States Postal Service once stopped accepting packages from China. How should cross-border sellers deal with the long-term logistics risks?

On the first working day of the Year of the Snake, cross-border sellers experienced a roller coaster ride.

The United States Postal Service (USPS) announced on the evening of Tuesday, February 4 (local time) that it would suspend the acceptance of packages sent from the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong, China, starting from February 4 until further notice. However, less than a day later, USPS changed its tune and said it would resume accepting packages from China.

Cross-border sellers who have become accustomed to the frequent changes in US foreign trade policies have responded quite calmly. Multiple cross-border sellers we interviewed said they are paying attention but are not in a hurry. "Let's wait and see," "Let the bullet fly for a while."

"Although it seems to be the behavior of USPS, it is essentially closely related to the official US policies."

Lawyer Huang Di, a senior consultant at Beijing Yinghe (Guangzhou) Law Firm, analyzed that this move by the US Postal Service is likely, on the one hand, to adjust its business processing methods in line with the new tariff policy. Just a few days ago, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 10% tariff on goods imported from China and simultaneously cancel the small-value exemption clause of less than $800. The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) also issued notices in the Federal Register such as "Mail packages from China must follow the formal customs entry procedures".

On the other hand, Trump's new policy has led to a large number of previously tax-free small packages requiring formal customs clearance, with more complex procedures, resulting in an increase in the backlog of goods and operating costs for the US Postal Service. The suspension of package acceptance by the US Postal Service may also be out of consideration for alleviating operational pressure.

Compared to the short-lived turmoil of USPS, the imposition of tariffs obviously has a greater impact on sellers. It not only means an increase in the cost of goods but also leads to more declaration fees and procedures, as well as more stringent compliance requirements in terms of customs declaration, taxation, and other aspects.

"It is not ruled out that there will be further repeated changes. The policy uncertainty faced by foreign trade enterprises is becoming stronger and stronger, and enterprises should continue to pay attention and be prepared," Huang Di said.

1. Increased Uncertainty in Cross-Border Logistics, Some Are Happy While Others Are Worried

After the news of USPS stopping the acceptance of packages from China broke out, we interviewed many people in the industry and found that there are mainly two reasons why cross-border sellers are "calm": First, they have not officially received the notice from USPS. Second, most merchants have actually stopped using the logistics method of direct delivery of small packages and will basically not be affected.

In the past two years, the fully managed and semi-managed models launched by the "Four Little Dragons of Going Global" have gradually become the mainstream model for small and medium-sized sellers to operate cross-border e-commerce. The cross-border logistics and customs declaration and tax payment for small packages weighing less than 5KG are basically borne by the cross-border e-commerce platforms. And some large-scale export enterprises targeting the 2B market often use sea transportation to send goods to overseas warehouses and do not need to use small package express delivery.

That's why someone joked on social media: "The world where only the American students studying abroad are hurt has been achieved. Can parents' packages still be received?"

In fact, compared to the sporadic packages of international students, the new USPS policy affects more Chinese cross-border platforms such as TEMU, SHEIN, and AliExpress. Affected by changes in tariffs and trade policies, on February 5 local time in the US, many popular Chinese concept stocks declined before the market opened. Pinduoduo dropped by more than 5%, Li Auto dropped by more than 4%, NIO dropped by more than 3%, Alibaba and Xpeng Motors dropped by more than 2%.

The general consensus in the cross-border industry is that This move by USPS is still a continuation of the US's cancellation of the tax-free policy for goods under $800.

This tax-free policy originated from a bill passed by the US Senate in 2015, allowing each legal person or natural person within the US to import $800 worth of goods duty-free every day. However, what the US legislators did not expect is that this policy indirectly benefited the "Four Little Dragons of Going Global" that mainly sell low-unit-price goods (the amount of a single order is often only a few dozen dollars).

By using the "small amount exemption" to deliver a large number of small packages, the "Four Little Dragons" rapidly expanded in the US, posing a competitive threat to platforms such as Amazon. According to data from the US Customs and Border Protection, the number of tax-free small packages entering the US in fiscal year 2024 has reached 1.4 billion, almost twice that of 2022, and one-third of them come from Chinese cross-border e-commerce platforms.

Since September 2024, the Biden administration has begun to plan with Congress to reform the "abuse of the minimum exemption" by Chinese cross-border platforms. On February 1, 2025, Trump officially signed an executive order to cancel the "minimum exemption" and impose a 10% tariff on imported Chinese goods.

And the subsequent suspension of package acceptance following Trump's executive order means that the uncertainty of cross-border logistics is also increasing. In the long term, this uncertainty will also shake the feasibility of the platform managed model. Because once the operation is suspended, the platform will face problems such as goods backlog, inability to send orders on time, a sharp increase in customer complaints, damage to the brand image, and customer loss. And in order to avoid risks, sellers will also turn to using Amazon's FBA logistics more.

In addition to Amazon, USPS's competitors that are not affected by the US government, such as FedEx, DHL, UPS in the US, and SF Express in China, may also benefit from this. In the short term, the logistics demand has increased significantly, while the warehousing and transportation capabilities of other logistics companies are relatively fixed within a certain period of time. Under the situation of supply falling short of demand, it may push up the prices of logistics for a new round of increase.

2. How Should Chinese Enterprises Respond to the Crazy Taxation in the US?

Looking globally, the new round of tariff increases in the US is not only aimed at Chinese enterprises. The day after imposing tariffs on China, Trump also talked with Canada and Mexico about tariff issues, causing a strong reaction from the two countries. But Trump not only does not intend to stop there but also says he plans to soon impose tariffs on EU products as well.

With the increase in tariffs and restrictions on logistics, what good solutions do Chinese enterprises going global have?

Many cross-border sellers told us that they have already become "numb" and developed "drug resistance" to the repeated and uncertain tariff policies in the US, and they have also found their own countermeasures.

A Shanghai foreign trade company that operates the export of women's underwear told us, "The cost of the increased tariffs is ultimately passed on to American consumers. As long as we increase the selling price by $1 - $2, we can cover this cost. Most consumers hardly notice this change, so it has little impact on us." Another Hunan merchant engaged in the export of electrical appliances said, "China has an industrial advantage in this industry, and there are no substitutes in the US. No matter how many tariffs are added, the American people still have to use our products."

Secondly, in order to avoid tariffs directly imposed on export products, more enterprises have begun to increase the layout of overseas warehouses and first transport products to overseas warehouses through bulk logistics. Data from the "2023 Overseas Warehouse Blue Book" by Cross-border Eye shows that for sellers with a scale of 100 million to 300 million yuan, the proportion of using third-party warehouses has reached 78.57%, and using overseas warehouses has almost become a standard configuration.

Especially after the "Four Little Dragons" joined the battle of overseas warehouses, the warehousing demand has soared, further boosting the growth of third-party overseas warehouse enterprises. According to the statistics of the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Commerce, as of November 2023, the area of overseas warehouses built and operated by Shenzhen enterprises has exceeded 3.8 million square meters, with an increase of approximately 1 million square meters compared to 2022. The "First Overseas Warehouse Stock" Yida Cloud had a gross profit margin of over 20% in 2023.

However, overseas warehouses also have side effects. On the one hand, they will bring higher warehousing costs. According to a previous report by Yingke, the rent of US warehouses in 2024 has doubled compared to 2021, and the logistics costs of Amazon's FBA warehouses have also increased. On the other hand, the rental costs of overseas warehouses also put forward higher requirements for the sales and inventory turnover of enterprises in the local overseas market.

In addition, in terms of compliance risks, Huang Di mentioned that Chinese sellers need to continuously pay attention to the latest policy and regulatory dynamics, and strengthen the compliance review of customs declaration, tax declaration, rules of origin, and product quality. She also suggested that Chinese e-commerce operators regularly organize employees to learn US customs regulations (such as Section 321), data cross-border rules, anti-dumping/anti-subsidy rules, establish an internal compliance response system, and set up a dedicated team or entrust a professional legal institution when necessary.

3. In the "Era of High Tariffs", Product Strength and Localization Are the Solutions

The imposition of tariffs is not unique to the US market. In 2025, Chinese export goods are facing higher tariff costs in many countries:

• The US announced that starting from January 1, 2025, it will increase the tariff rate on solar wafers and polysilicon imported from China to 50%, and the tariff rate on some tungsten products to 25%.
• Mexico announced that starting from December 20, 2024, it will impose a 35% import tariff on 138 tariff subcategories of textile and clothing products from multiple countries, including China, and formulate a list of textiles prohibited from import.
• Saudi Arabia announced that starting from December 3, 2024, it will impose an anti-dumping duty of 18.12% to 34% on sulfonated naphthalene formaldehyde (SNF) from China, and the policy will be valid for 5 years.
• The Thai Ministry of Finance announced the implementation of 100% inspection of Chinese imported goods.
• Vietnam announced that starting from July 2025, it will cancel the tax-free preferential treatment for low-cost imported goods and increase the value-added tax rate to 10%.
• The EU is considering imposing a new tax on packages from cross-border e-commerce platforms and collecting administrative processing fees to deal with the surge in low-value packages. EU officials proposed to cancel the tariff exemption threshold of 150 euros.
• The Indonesian government restricts the sale of imported products under $100 on e-commerce platforms. It plans to impose a safeguard tariff of 100% to 200% on imported ceramic products.

For the cross-border e-commerce industry, in the past few years, enterprises represented by the "Four Little Dragons" have enjoyed the dividend of the tariff loophole of direct mail of small packages and seized the global e-commerce market share. Inevitably, they will also be in a situation of being "besieged from all sides". An expert who has been observing the cross-border field for a long time told us, "To deal with the current market environment where they are besieged on all sides, the best way for the Four Little Dragons may be to cooperate with local e-commerce and become a local company. The business of just selling goods at low prices to foreign countries is not sustainable."

Huang Di reminded that in the future, the US may also have restrictions on the cross-border data of Chinese enterprises to US consumers, and may continue to take actions and impose penalties on Chinese e-commerce enterprises.

Not only cross-border e-commerce, but also the Chinese "Going Global Army" in the process of expanding overseas will inevitably encounter a stronger backlash in the overseas market. The US and the EU have significantly increased tariffs on Chinese new energy vehicles and photovoltaic products, forcing Chinese enterprises to invest and build factories locally. In the high-precision semiconductor and chip industry, the US has introduced multiple export control and technology restriction policies, forcing domestic technology research and development and supply chain breakthroughs. Not to mention the shock caused by DeepSeek globally a few days ago, and the subsequent slander and hacker attacks.

In the face of the complex and difficult international market environment, how to make the going global path smoother?

On the one hand, the Chinese government has timely introduced corresponding countermeasures. For example, on February 10, 2025, China announced the imposition of tariffs (15% - 10%) on goods such as coal, liquefied natural gas, and crude oil originating (originating) from the US as a response to the previous tariff increases by the US. On the other hand, Chinese enterprises have to improve the hard power of their products, allowing overseas consumers to "vote with their feet", and at the same time strengthen local cooperation with local enterprises. Through mutual benefit and win-win results, they can better integrate into the overseas market and achieve long-term development.

This short-term suspension of the acceptance of Chinese packages by USPS is only a temporary strategic adjustment. However, in the context of the continuous escalation of international trade conflicts and the profound changes in the going global pattern, it is more like a small test for all Chinese enterprises before the arrival of more severe challenges in the future.