Direct satellite connection for mobile phones: Although it is in its infancy, it has shown a steady growth trend.

Recently, analysts from Ookla, a well - known network testing and data analysis company, published an article stating that Direct - to - Device (D2D) satellite technology is still in its early development stage but has shown a steady growth trend. D2D is rapidly moving from the experimental verification stage to large - scale commercial applications, accelerating the support for more device connections and diverse scenarios, and will become a standard feature in mobile communication in the future.

D2D is Forming a Trend of Large - Scale Development

D2D technology directly connects satellites to smartphones. Considering that satellites are thousands of kilometers away from the Earth and often fly at high speeds in space, stable communication faces significant challenges. In contrast, traditional mobile signal base stations are fixed and are only a few hundred meters to a few kilometers away from mobile users.

In the past few years, leading players have dominated the D2D market. Apple pioneered the D2D market through Globalstar's satellites and spectrum. In 2022, it launched iPhone 14 with direct - to - satellite communication, enabling every phone to send and receive text messages via these satellites.

Apple is not alone. Manufacturers such as Starlink Mobile under SpaceX and Skylo have announced the launch of commercial D2D services in some countries around the world. This month, Amazon announced the acquisition of Globalstar as part of its Amazon Leo satellite internet project to provide D2D services to global mobile network operators. Although most of these services support text messages and lightweight data services, as manufacturers deploy more satellites and increase spectrum resources, the performance of the D2D network will continue to improve.

As a testing company, Ookla has widely used testing tools. The company has mapped the progress of the D2D market based on data from Android smartphones and satellite registration data from Starlink, Skylo, and Lynk.

Data collected by Ookla shows that with the launch of Starlink's D2D services in multiple countries, global D2D connections have increased by 24.5%, although monthly usage remains extremely low. Overall, the United States leads in the number of connections, accounting for 45.9% of global users, followed by Australia at 18.1%, Chile at 10%, and Canada at 9.8%. Notably, these countries have large rural, regional, or inland areas outside the coverage of terrestrial networks, making D2D more practical. Data shows that the proportion of independent D2D users to cellular users in New Zealand, Chile, and Peru exceeds 1%.

However, since D2D is still in the early commercial stage, the cost is relatively high, and users are highly sensitive to prices. Data shows that the willingness of some users to pay for D2D services is weakening. Ookla pointed out that despite the overall global growth, the number of D2D connections in the United States and Canada has decreased in recent months. Analysis suggests that this is related to the fact that T - Mobile in the United States and Rogers in Canada have started charging some users. Since both T - Mobile and Rogers have ended the free trial period, they only include Starlink D2D in high - end packages; other users need to pay separately, with a monthly fee of about $10, and users of other operators are also charged according to this standard if they want to use the service.

The D2D market is in a state of dynamic change. For example, AST SpaceMobile has promised to enter the field by launching 45 to 60 satellites by the end of 2026, and most of these satellites will provide a data speed of up to 120 Mbps. Although it is not clear how these capabilities will affect the actual experience of customers, AST SpaceMobile's partners such as AT&T have promised to provide a complete broadband connection package including voice, data, and text messages.

Similarly, Amazon Leo has promised to deploy its own D2D satellite constellation by 2028 while retaining the Globalstar constellation for Apple. Amazon said that the Leo D2D system will provide higher spectrum utilization and efficiency than traditional direct - to - cell systems, which means faster speeds and better performance.

Another satellite operator, Lynk, announced a merger with Omnispace at the end of 2025, combining its "space base station" technology with Omnispace's vast satellite spectrum assets.

Meanwhile, Starlink Mobile under SpaceX announced plans to launch a second - generation D2D satellite constellation, which will be twice the size of the current D2D constellation. These new D2D satellites will support the spectrum purchased by SpaceX from EchoStar and be equipped with improved antennas and other technologies. Starlink said it will "achieve complete 5G cellular connection, with an experience comparable to existing terrestrial services." Of course, the launch of Starlink's V2 D2D satellite constellation depends on SpaceX's larger rocket, Starship, which is still under testing.

The Mobile Communication Ecosystem Promotes the Further Popularization of D2D

Currently, the scale of the D2D market is still relatively small. According to a report by the Global Mobile Suppliers Association (GSA) in February, D2D services have been launched in 15 countries. Currently, 61 countries and regions are planning, evaluating, testing, or have launched satellite - to - smartphone partnerships. According to GSA statistics, Starlink leads in this regard, with 59 partnerships, followed by AST SpaceMobile with 28 partnerships.

The GSA report does not cover the Chinese market, where D2D has also achieved remarkable results. China Unicom and China Telecom have obtained licenses to provide point - to - point services through the Tiantong satellite system. Meanwhile, China Mobile uses the Beidou satellite system and plans to integrate with emerging satellite constellations to further expand its point - to - point capabilities.

The coverage of D2D technology has a significant impact on cellular network operators, especially those who want to understand when their customers leave the coverage of traditional terrestrial networks. AT&T has proposed that the widespread adoption of satellite - driven broadband connections may reduce the need for additional base stations in rural areas, affecting the long - term business of base station operators. Starlink has promised that its V2 constellation of D2D services will enable mobile network operators to "achieve seamless services in remote areas while reducing investment in terrestrial networks." Ultimately, a cost - benefit analysis may be conducted to determine whether it is more cost - effective to build base stations or rely on D2D service providers to cover rural outdoor areas.

However, the original mobile communication ecosystem will not only be impacted by satellite communication. On the contrary, it actively embraces satellite communication and will, to a certain extent, become the core force promoting the development of satellite communication, especially the popularization of D2D.

Market research firm Omdia recently released the "Smartphone Direct - to - Satellite Market Forecast" report, which provides an outlook on the development of the global smartphone direct - to - satellite service market. The report shows that by 2030, the number of monthly active users of global D2D will reach 411 million, and the related revenue will reach $11.99 billion. From 2026 to 2030, the compound annual growth rates of users and revenue in this field will be as high as 80.1% and 49.4% respectively, showing strong development momentum.

Omdia predicts that smartphones with direct - to - satellite connection based on cellular network standards (4G/5G) will become the absolute mainstream in the market. By 2030, such devices will account for more than 95% of the total number of monthly active users globally. Their core advantage is that no dedicated terminal equipment is required, and users can directly access the satellite communication network through their existing smartphones. This technological path is receiving wide support from all aspects of the industrial chain.

Omdia experts believe that as satellite constellations expand and their coverage increases, more communication service providers will be able to provide ubiquitous connections through satellite D2D functions. In the future, direct - to - satellite services for mobile phones will become a common additional feature of mobile packages, providing coverage for areas lacking terrestrial networks. In the long run, satellite - based broadband will help operators improve network connections in rural areas and support the goal of universal service.

The role of the mobile communication ecosystem led by operators in satellite communication, especially D2D, is mainly reflected in the advancement of the 3GPP NTN (Non - Terrestrial Network) standard, which has become the technical foundation of the entire D2D industry. 3GPP Release 17 first incorporated satellites and high - altitude platforms into the 5G standard system, providing core technical specifications for direct connection between ground devices and satellites. Currently, 3GPP NR - NTN (5G devices connecting to the 5G core network via satellites) has evolved from a "PPT technology" to a mature and commercially available technology.

Looking to the future, 6G will be the first mobile communication system to natively integrate NTN technology. The industry consensus is that D2D will not replace terrestrial communication but will become the "sky extension layer" of mobile communication, serving all mobile users on demand.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Internet of Things Think Tank" (ID: iot101), written by Zhao Xiaofei, and is published by 36Kr with authorization.