With a profit of 1.25 billion yuan, NIO achieved its first quarterly profit in 11 years. The cumulative investment in battery swap stations exceeded 18 billion yuan. Did Li Bin make the right bet?

On March 10, NIO (09866.HK; NIO.NYSE) disclosed its financial reports for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2025.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, NIO achieved an operating profit of 1.25 billion yuan and had a cash reserve of 45.9 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of nearly 10 billion yuan.

Main financial performance of NIO in the fourth quarter of 2025. Source: NIO's financial reports for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2025

Benefiting from its performance in the fourth quarter, NIO achieved vehicle sales of 76.884 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 32.0%; the total annual revenue reached 87.488 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.1%.

The outside world had actually known about NIO's profitability in the fourth quarter of 2025 for a long time. A month ago, Li Bin, the founder, chairman, and CEO of NIO, had already revealed that NIO achieved an operating profit of 700 million to 1.2 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2025.

This was NIO's first quarterly profit since its establishment 11 years ago, and the "heroes" behind it were the two all-electric three-row models, LeDao L90 and NIO ES8.

In particular, the new ES8 with a price of over 400,000 yuan enabled Li Bin to fulfill his bold promise of "profitability in the fourth quarter of 2025". Goldman Sachs wrote in a research report that the sales volume of NIO ES8 in the fourth quarter of 2025 suddenly increased to 32%, while in the previous three quarters, this figure was only 2% to 5%.

However, in 2026, the LeDao L90, which was supposed to shoulder the sales volume together with the new NIO ES8, showed a weak sales performance.

Although the new NIO ES8 still accounted for half of NIO's monthly sales volume in January and February, its sales volume also decreased quarter-on-quarter.

In this regard, for NIO to achieve annual profitability, it not only needs more products but also needs to find a way to replicate the success of the new ES8.

The All-Electric Three-Row Models: The "Heroes" of NIO's Single-Quarter Profitability

"The golden age of extended-range three-row SUVs is passing, and the era of all-electric three-row SUVs is coming." This is one of the most frequently mentioned industry judgments by Li Bin in his internal and external speeches since September 2025.

The sales volume of LeDao L90 and the new ES8 after their launch proved this point.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, NIO delivered 124,807 new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 71.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 43.3%, setting a new historical high. The NIO brand, LeDao brand, and firefly brand delivered 67,433, 38,290, and 19,084 vehicles respectively in the fourth quarter, all setting new historical highs.

Among them, the LeDao L90, with a price range of 200,000 - 300,000 yuan, achieved sales of over 10,000 units in 29 days after its launch, becoming the model with the fastest delivery of over 10,000 units in NIO's history, and delivered 43,439 units in 5 months after its launch.

The new ES8 was officially launched and started delivery in September 2025. In October, the delivery volume of the new ES8 with a price of over 400,000 yuan exceeded 10,000 units.

With the increase in production capacity, in December 2025, the monthly sales volume of the new ES8 reached 22,256 units. This also became the key for NIO to achieve profitability in the fourth quarter of 2025, and promoted NIO's comprehensive gross profit margin in the fourth quarter to increase to 17.5% and the vehicle gross profit margin to increase to 18.1%.

Whether it is the LeDao L90 with a price range of 200,000 - 300,000 yuan or the new ES8 with a price of over 400,000 yuan, the key to breaking through the encirclement of many competitors lies in NIO's unique BaaS car purchase plan (purchasing with battery leasing).

Taking the new ES8 with a standard 102-kWh battery as an example, the car price of purchasing with BaaS battery leasing is 108,000 yuan lower than that of purchasing the whole vehicle, and the purchase tax is also more than 7,000 yuan less.

In addition to the price attractiveness, NIO's investment in charging station facilities in the past 11 years also contributed a lot.

The financial report shows that as of December 31, 2025, NIO had built a total of 3,737 battery swapping stations and 4,877 charging stations globally.

Li Bin mentioned in the CCTV program "Dialogue" on March 8 that since its establishment, NIO has continuously invested over 18 billion yuan in the field of charging and battery swapping infrastructure. "In the next five years, at least 1,000 battery swapping stations will be deployed every year. By the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan, the scale of NIO's battery swapping stations should be about 10,000."

NIO was a guest on the CCTV program "Dialogue". Source: NIO's official website

NIO's persistence has indeed cultivated the consumption habits of some users. The data disclosed by NIO shows that during the Spring Festival in 2026, NIO provided a total of 3,271,441 charging and battery swapping services, among which the battery swapping services reached 2,073,500 times.

However, the cost is that NIO has accumulated a loss of over 100 billion yuan in 11 years.

Benefiting from the profitability in the fourth quarter, in 2025, NIO's net loss was 14.943 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.3%. After deducting the equity incentive expenses and organizational optimization expenses, NIO's adjusted net loss in 2025 was 12.414 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.4%.

"Profit" and "Dilemma" Both Stem from Three-Row Models

Li Bin said that the quarterly profit fully confirms the core competitiveness of NIO's technical route, products, and business model, and also reflects the continuous improvement of NIO's systematic capabilities and operational efficiency, laying a solid foundation for the company's long-term sustainable development.

However, in 2026, the growth momentum of the LeDao L90 and the new ES8, which bear the heavy burden of NIO's profitability, has weakened.

In particular, since entering 2026, the delivery volume of the LeDao brand has significantly declined. NIO has rarely mentioned the data of the LeDao brand separately in the delivery data of the past two months.

A person close to NIO told a reporter from Time Weekly that from the overall situation of the industry, the sales volume of new energy vehicle brands is generally on a downward trend, and the LeDao brand is no exception.

The above-mentioned person further said that on the one hand, the price range where LeDao is located is itself a more competitive segment of the self-owned brand market. Compared with the same-level competitors' measures to boost sales such as price cuts and promotions, LeDao still adheres to the price bottom line.

"On the other hand, if LeDao wants to further increase its sales volume, it needs to greatly improve its brand awareness. However, the cultivation of brand influence cannot be completed in a short time and requires long-term continuous investment and layout."

Although the monthly sales volume of the new ES8 remained above 10,000 units in January and February, it also showed a relatively obvious decline under the intensified competition in the high-end SUV market and the continuous entry of new competitors.

Official data shows that in the first two months of 2026, NIO delivered 27,182 and 20,797 vehicles respectively, a year-on-year increase of 96.1% and 57.6%.

Source: Unsplash

However, according to the delivery guidance of 80,000 - 83,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2026 mentioned in NIO's full-year financial report for 2025, NIO needs to deliver 32,032 - 35,021 vehicles in March, which is a great pressure.

Perhaps to maintain the popularity of the best-selling products or to reduce the sales pressure, NIO has launched a purchase tax subsidy of 10,000 yuan for the new ES8 on the sales side; the LeDao brand has joined the "7-year low-interest" campaign, and if you purchase a car through the BaaS method, you can also enjoy the purchase tax subsidy.

Moreover, in the live broadcast on the Lantern Festival, Li Bin also revealed NIO's product plan for 2026, including the annual model upgrade of the main brand NIO's "5566", the technical press conference of another important model ES9 to be held on April 9, and relevant information about the LeDao L80, which focuses on the large five-seater market.

Industry insiders believe that with NIO's deep accumulation in the battery swapping system over 11 years and the market dividends of six-seater three-row models, NIO has now entered a relatively healthy development stage.

"From the product plan, NIO is not short of models. However, considering the existing product structure and sales performance, what NIO lacks is to find a new best-selling model outside the three-row models, that is, the next core volume-selling model, to promote the overall development into a more stable and sustainable track, so as to achieve the goal of annual profitability."

This article is from the WeChat official account "Time Weekly" (ID: timeweekly). Author: Cao Yang, Editor: Liu Xue. Republished by 36Kr with permission.