Ranked first globally for 11 consecutive years, the Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology praised new energy vehicles. A new round of car-buying boom may come in March.

On March 5th, at the first "Ministers' Passage" event during the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress, Li Lecheng, the Minister of Industry and Information Technology, stated that in 2025, China's industrial added - value reached 41.7 trillion yuan, contributing 35% to economic growth. The advantages of China's complete industrial system and its status as the world's largest manufacturing country have been further consolidated.

Li Lecheng further indicated that the development trend of China's advanced manufacturing industry can be described by four words: towards the new, towards the excellent, towards the intelligent, and towards the green. Among them, "towards the new" means that the new driving forces for development are strong. The production and sales volume of new - energy vehicles reached a new high again, ranking first in the world for 11 consecutive years.

"Towards the new" is not only about the soaring output value but also the real purchasing power of consumers. The automobile consumption index for February released by the China Automobile Dealers Association rose to 72.9, significantly higher than that in January, indicating that the automobile market is steadily recovering from the trough of the Spring Festival off - season.

△Trend chart of automobile consumption index. Source: China Automobile Dealers Association

Entering March, the subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones have covered all provincial regions across the country. The new regulations on charging facilities have officially taken effect, and car - making enterprises have launched intensive spring promotion activities. Industry institutions and experts generally believe that a rebound in sales volume in March is expected.

Outstanding Performance in Overseas Markets

In the just - past February, the terminal retail of automobiles was under pressure. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, there were only 16 effective sales working days in the whole month, 3 days fewer than the same period last year. Coupled with the sharp decline in store footfall due to people returning to their hometowns for the festival, the market entered the traditional sales off - season.

Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, analyzed that during the 9 - day Spring Festival holiday this year, most car - making enterprises took extended annual leave around the Spring Festival, resulting in a very short effective production and sales period. It is expected that the automobile market sales volume in February will be at the absolute trough of the year.

Judging from the officially disclosed sales data, the sales volume of most car - making enterprises declined both year - on - year and month - on - month last month. Among them, Geely Automobile (00175.HK) sold 206,200 vehicles in February, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, becoming the only leading independent car - making enterprise with positive year - on - year growth. BYD (01211.HK) sold 190,200 vehicles, a significant year - on - year decline of 41.1%, but it performed outstandingly in overseas markets.

The monthly sales volume of all new car - making forces fell below 30,000 vehicles. Hongmeng Zhixing continued to lead with a delivery volume of 28,212 vehicles, followed closely by Leapmotor (09863.HK) with a delivery volume of 28,067 vehicles. Xiaomi Automobile delivered more than 20,000 vehicles in February. XPeng Motors (09868.HK) ranked last among the new forces, delivering 15,256 vehicles in February.

It is worth noting that the overseas market became a major highlight of the automobile market in February, and the overseas sales of some car - making enterprises exceeded their domestic sales for the first time. BYD's overseas sales reached 100,000 vehicles in February, a year - on - year increase of 41.4%, achieving a historical breakthrough of "overseas sales exceeding domestic sales". Chery Automobile's overseas sales reached 117,000 vehicles in February, accounting for more than 70% of its total sales volume. Great Wall Motor's overseas sales reached 43,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 37.36%.

The inventory pressure on dealers cannot be ignored either. A survey by the China Automobile Dealers Association showed that in February 2026, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 56.2%. Although it decreased by 0.7 percentage points year - on - year and 3.2 percentage points month - on - month, it still remained above the boom - bust line.

However, positive signals have emerged. The automobile consumption index released by the China Automobile Dealers Association on March 5th showed that the automobile consumption index in February was 72.9, significantly higher than that of the previous month. Among them, the demand sub - index was 70.3, higher than that of the previous month; the in - store sub - index was 74.0, a significant increase from the previous month; the purchase sub - index was 72.6, showing a remarkable rebound.

△Automobile consumption index - demand sub - index. Source: China Automobile Dealers Association

This means that although the market sales volume was dismal in February, consumers' willingness to buy cars has begun to rebound from the bottom, and there are many potential consumers waiting on the sidelines with money in hand. The association predicts that the demand for car purchases in March will continue to accumulate as life returns to normal after the Spring Festival. Car - purchase subsidies in many places during the spring and the launch of new cars will further stimulate consumption.

Intensive Implementation of Policy Dividends

Entering March, the automobile market has received multiple policy benefits. The detailed rules for subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones have covered all provincial regions across the country, with a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan for scrapping old cars and buying new ones.

As of March 1st, all 31 provinces have issued supporting detailed rules for trading in old cars for new ones in 2026. Henan aims to complete about 500,000 cases of scrapping and replacing personal consumer cars by the end of 2026. Data from the Ministry of Commerce showed that as of February 5th, there had been 335,000 applications for subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones in 2026, driving new - car sales worth 53.77 billion yuan. In January this year, the average price of new cars involved in the trade - in program exceeded 160,000 yuan, significantly higher than that of the previous year.

It is worth noting that many places have innovatively introduced a total - control mechanism for the "fund pool". Subsidies are distributed according to the principle of "total amount control, first - come, first - served" and combined with local consumer vouchers to form a synergy.

The improvement of charging infrastructure has also removed obstacles for the consumption of new - energy vehicles. Starting from March 1st, the industry standard for government agencies, "Guidelines for the Configuration and Operation of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure in Public Institutions", has been officially implemented, focusing on solving the problems of "how to allocate, how to build, and how to manage" charging infrastructure.

In addition to the policy - driven efforts, the spontaneous power of the market cannot be ignored either. March has become a concentrated window period for car - making enterprises to launch spring promotions and new - car launches. Hongmeng Zhixing announced that the Zunjie S800 and Wenjie M9 will be the first to be equipped with the world's highest - grade mass - produced line - harness lidar on March 4th. Heavyweight new cars such as the GAC Aion A800 also chose to be launched in early March, attracting consumers with "time - limited trade - in subsidy prices". Spring auto shows in various places have been successively launched, further promoting the release of car - purchase demand.

Facing the intensively introduced policy incentives, can the automobile market in March give rise to a real inflection point in sales volume? Industry institutions and experts generally hold a cautiously optimistic attitude.

When looking forward to the market in March, the China Automobile Dealers Association stated that dealers are cautious about the automobile market in March, but the terminal footfall and sales volume are expected to rebound month - on - month.

The main supporting factors include the return of consumption to normal driven by people returning to cities after the festival, combined with the launch of spring auto shows in many places, the intensive launch of new cars, and the clear application process for local "two new" subsidies, which will promote the release of car - purchase demand. However, the association also reminded that due to the pre - holiday overdraft of demand and the continued wait - and - see attitude of consumers, the overall recovery pace of the market is relatively mild, and the situation of profit pressure will continue.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Time Weekly" (ID: timeweekly) , written by Zhao Lingwei and published by 36Kr with authorization.