The unshakable Model Y and Tesla, continuously bleeding money

“Everyone wants to take down the Model Y, but what's the result?”

Recently, after getting the retail data for August, with an output of 39,413 units, the Model Y successfully secured the second - place in the single - model sales ranking in the Chinese auto market. The opening sentence of this article is my heartfelt exclamation.

Since its localization in China, this mid - sized pure - electric SUV has been besieged by domestic self - owned brands time and time again. However, even in the highly competitive market, it still stands firm.

Last month, the Model Y L, targeting the six - seat market, suddenly entered the arena. Based on the current feedback, although its overall experience is not as good as competitors like the Li Auto L8 and the LeDao L90, it can still gain the recognition and favor of end - consumers and receive a large number of orders.

To be honest, you have to admire it.

The fundamental reason behind this is, on the one hand, due to its relatively balanced product strength. For example, even with a 400V platform, the Model Y's comprehensive energy consumption and range performance are among the best in its class. On the other hand, and more importantly, it's the brand. Many users who choose to order this mid - sized pure - electric SUV do so because of the prestigious "Tesla" brand.

This is precisely the moat that Tesla currently relies on the most. However, objectively speaking, although this barrier is enviable, it is not impregnable.

As the title of this article suggests, the unshakable position of the Model Y cannot cover up Tesla's continuous losses in the global market this year.

“Sooner or later, it will lose a piece of its market share”

“If the LeDao L60 could carry the Tesla logo, how many units do you think it could sell in a month?”

At the beginning of this month, NIO released its second - quarter financial report. In an exclusive interview the next day, Li Bin mentioned the leading position of the Model Y and couldn't help asking everyone present this question.

In my opinion, what he really meant was that the LeDao L60 has excellent product strength and a significantly lower price, but it lacks popularity. Tesla's influence, including Elon Musk's personal charisma, adds so many points to the Model Y that most competitors can't catch up.

This situation is indeed helpless, but it is an eternal survival rule in the automotive industry: "In the end, selling cars is all about the brand."

In the era of intelligent electric vehicles, where the actual user experience is becoming more and more homogeneous and the Matthew effect is intensifying, this phenomenon is particularly prominent. The unshakable position of the Model Y is no exception.

For many challengers, they have to accept the huge cognitive gap.

From the perspective of users, there is a large group of potential customers in the Chinese auto market who "only look at Tesla", similar to those consumers who "only choose Apple". No matter what offensive self - owned brands launch, this group remains unmoved.

When they buy a car, they seem to have their hearts set on the Model Y. Anyway, it won't go wrong, has a high market share and good resale value, and requires less explanation, saving a lot of unnecessary trouble.

However, even so, when looking at the retail data of this mid - sized pure - electric SUV in the past 12 months, we can still find that since the beginning of this year, due to the switch to the new version, there have been certain fluctuations. The fact proves that "unshakable doesn't mean forever."

For the same reason, we have reason to believe that with the continuous siege of self - owned brands, the Model Y will sooner or later lose a significant market share. The current situation of BBA in China is a good example. Although the moat built by the brand is very strong, it is not without flaws.

So, who is the most feared competitor of the Model Y? The answer points directly to Huawei and Xiaomi. In fact, the intense competition has already begun.

Take the Xiaomi SU7, which received 200,000 large orders overnight, as an example. Its sales in August quickly climbed to 16,548 units. Without any accident, as long as the production end can keep up, it will definitely exceed 20,000 units in September.

According to the research report on the portrait of the first - batch owners of the Xiaomi SU7 released by Jielanlu, the Model Y has undoubtedly become the core comparison model with the highest proportion.

Nearly 35% of users said that if the Xiaomi SU7 had not been launched, they would not have chosen other products, and 24% of users said they would postpone their car - buying decision.

In simple terms, Xiaomi's appeal, including Lei Jun's personal charisma, is forcing the Model Y to face its toughest battle since entering the Chinese market.

In contrast, the Hongmeng Zhixing ecosystem, which is even more powerful, is adding fuel to the fire. The upcoming launches of the Shangjie H5 and the Wenjie M7 will also pose a severe test for the Model Y.

Next year, according to relevant rumors, Hongmeng Zhixing is expected to have more than 17 models on sale, with new cars launching in various segments. Do you think they will further impact Tesla's market share?

Moreover, although these new players led by "NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto" cannot compete with Tesla in terms of brand for now, they are also experiencing a major explosion in supply. The price range of 200,000 - 300,000 yuan has become the main battlefield for everyone.

With the rapid pace of new product launches, Tesla will surely have a hard time. During this process, how long can the unshakable Model Y maintain its position? Perhaps, the declining sales curve of the Model 3 in China is a warning.

“The front - yard's glory can't cover the fire in the back - yard”

At this moment, if I were to summarize Tesla's current global situation in one sentence, it would be: "The European market is sluggish, the US market is unstable, and the Chinese market is full of strong competitors."

Fortunately, in August, Tesla got a brief respite in China.

Specifically, including exports, Tesla sold a total of 84,159 new cars in August, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% and a month - on - month increase of 31%, rebounding significantly from the sales low in July.

However, when looking at the bigger picture, the glory in the Chinese market can't cover up the continuous losses in other markets. Tesla's bleeding in other segments continues.

Take the European market as an example. According to data from France, Tesla's new car registrations in August decreased by 47.3% compared with the same period last year. Ironically, the overall automotive market sales increased by nearly 2.2%.

In Sweden, with the overall sales of electric vehicles remaining flat and the total automotive market sales increasing by 6%, Tesla's registrations plummeted by 84%. Similarly, in Denmark, Tesla's registrations in August also decreased by 42%, and in the Dutch market, they declined by 50%.

In contrast, although Tesla's sales in Norway and Spain have increased, the growth rate is far lower than that of BYD, which has also been aggressively expanding in Europe this year.

It should be noted that Norway has always been a country where Tesla has invested a lot of effort, and almost all newly sold cars in the country are electric vehicles. In August, Tesla's registrations in Norway increased by 21.3%, while BYD's registrations soared by 218%.

In Spain, due to a subsidy of up to 7,000 euros for electric vehicles, Tesla's sales increased from 549 units in the same period last year to 1,435 units in August, an increase of 161%. In contrast, BYD's sales increased by more than 400% to 1,827 units.

Since the beginning of this year, BYD's cumulative sales in Spain have soared to 14,181 units, an increase of 675%. In contrast, Tesla's sales in the local market are only 9,303 units, with an increase of only 11.6%.

In short, based on various signs, it is certain that Tesla will "lose" the European market this year. The single product line, Elon Musk's remarks, and the squeeze from Chinese automakers are all the fatal "fuses" behind this.

To make matters worse, Tesla's domestic market is also collapsing.

It should be noted that at its peak, Tesla's share in the pure - electric market once reached a terrifying 80%. However, in August, it dropped to only 38%. It is reported that this is the first time since the mass - production of the Model 3 in October 2017 that it has fallen below the 40% mark.

According to research from relevant institutions, more and more American consumers are choosing new products from competitors rather than Tesla's old - model vehicles.

In other words, the loss of "freshness" is the main reason for the significant decline in Tesla's share in the pure - electric market.

However, with the shift of Tesla's strategic focus, driverless taxis and humanoid robots have become increasingly important. Recently, Elon Musk reiterated that the large - scale implementation of FSD and Optimus will be the company's top priority.

"In the future, 80% of the company's market value will be supported by these two."

Last Friday, Tesla's board of directors proposed an unprecedented compensation plan: "If the company's market value reaches $8.5 trillion within ten years, Elon Musk will receive stock incentives worth trillions of dollars."

This generous offer has instantly sparked heated discussions.

In everyone's view, the most concerning issue is: "Although the future that Tesla is touting is beautiful, how can it get through the current difficult times?"

After all, at its core, Tesla is still an automotive company. If its foundation is not stable, all the grand ideas are just castles in the air. I'm increasingly curious whether the rumored "affordable car" will be launched this year.

As for how long Tesla will stay in this difficult "downward cycle", to be honest, as of now, there are no strong signs of a breakthrough.

In the last four months of this year, the European market will likely remain sluggish, and the US market will remain unstable. Relying solely on the Chinese market for support will eventually lead to exhaustion.

I've always firmly believed that the vehicle business is the absolute support for Tesla's new businesses. Now, the stagnation or even decline of this business makes it difficult for Tesla to enter the expected positive cycle, always giving the impression of being unable to balance different aspects.

Interestingly, according to the latest news, Elon Musk bought another 2.5 million shares yesterday, with a total value of about $1 billion.

This helmsman seems to have full confidence in the company's future. So, let's wait and see how things develop...

This article is from the WeChat official account “Automotive Commune” (ID: iAUTO2010), written by Cui Liwen and published by 36Kr with permission.